題圖:2024年11月12日，烏克蘭托列茨克，一名烏克蘭士兵在制導(dǎo)空投炸彈爆炸的背景下擺姿勢(shì)拍照。

For almost three years, NATO countries have boycotted diplomatic contact with Russia, even as hundreds of thousands of men die on the Ukraine conflict's battlefield. The decision to reject diplomacy is morally repugnant. Diplomacy could have reduced violence, prevented escalation, and even opened a path to peace. Instead, political and media elites skillfully presented this rejection as a sign of moral righteousness, labeling dialogue as treason and war as virtuous.

近三年來(lái)，北約各國(guó)一直抵制與俄羅斯進(jìn)行外交接觸，即使已經(jīng)有數(shù)十萬(wàn)人死在烏克蘭沖突的戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)上。拒絕外交的決定在道義上是令人厭惡的。外交本可以減少暴力，防止沖突升級(jí)，甚至開辟一條和平之路。相反，政治和媒體精英卻巧妙地將這種拒絕說(shuō)成是道德正義的象征，將對(duì)話說(shuō)成是背叛，將戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)說(shuō)成是美德。

NATO’s Long War

北約的長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)

To exhaust Russia in a long war, the goal was to ensure that the Russians and Ukrainians kill each other for as long as possible. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin outlined the US obxtive in the Ukraine War as weakening its strategic adversary: “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” In late March 2022, Vladimir Zelensky revealed in an interview with The Economist: “There are those in the West who don’t mind a long war because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine and comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives.”

為了讓俄羅斯在長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中疲于奔命，美國(guó)的目標(biāo)是確保俄羅斯人和烏克蘭人在盡可能長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間內(nèi)自相殘殺。美國(guó)國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)勞埃德-奧斯汀將美國(guó)在烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中的目標(biāo)概括為削弱其戰(zhàn)略對(duì)手：“我們希望看到俄羅斯被削弱到無(wú)法再做出在入侵烏克蘭時(shí)所做的那些事情的程度”。2022年3月底，澤連斯基在接受《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》采訪時(shí)透露：“西方有些人并不介意打一場(chǎng)持久戰(zhàn)，因?yàn)檫@意味著讓俄羅斯筋疲力盡，即使這意味著以烏克蘭人的生命為代價(jià)，讓烏克蘭的滅亡。”

Israeli and Turkish mediators confirmed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a peace deal in Istanbul, where Russia would withdraw and Ukraine would restore its neutrality. Yet the West rejected this. The goal wasn’t peace — it was to bleed Russia through its proxy army in Ukraine. Both Germany and France have admitted that the Minsk Peace Agreement was never meant to be implemented, but used as a vehicle to build up Ukraine’s military.

調(diào)解人以色列和土耳其都證實(shí)，俄羅斯和烏克蘭曾在伊斯坦布爾達(dá)成過(guò)和平協(xié)議，俄羅斯將撤出，烏克蘭將恢復(fù)中立。然而，西方卻拒絕了這一協(xié)議。其目的不是和平--而是通過(guò)其在烏克蘭的代理軍隊(duì)榨干俄羅斯。德國(guó)和法國(guó)都承認(rèn)，《明斯克和平協(xié)議》從未被打算付諸實(shí)施，而是被用作加強(qiáng)烏克蘭軍事力量的工具。

The Turkish Foreign Minister and former Israeli Prime Minister have both acknowledged that NATO states actively wanted the war to continue. Former NATO figures, such as retired General Harald Kujat, have said the war was deliberately provoked by NATO, with the US and UK blocking peace efforts to weaken Russia politically, economically, and militarily.

土耳其外長(zhǎng)和以色列前總理都承認(rèn)，北約國(guó)家積極希望戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)繼續(xù)下去。退役將軍哈拉爾德-庫(kù)亞特等前北約人士表示，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)是北約蓄意挑起的，美國(guó)和英國(guó)阻撓和平努力，以從政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)和軍事上削弱俄羅斯。

US lawmakers, such as Lindsey Graham, have been openly supportive of fighting Russia “to the last Ukrainian.” They argue that assisting Ukraine without risking American lives is a smart investment in weakening Russia. Meanwhile, Mitch McConnell called it an investment in America’s national security, and Mitt Romney called financing the war “the best defense spending ever.”

林賽-格雷厄姆等美國(guó)議員公開支持與俄羅斯“戰(zhàn)斗到最后一個(gè)烏克蘭人”。他們認(rèn)為，在不危及美國(guó)人生命的情況下援助烏克蘭是削弱俄羅斯的明智投資。與此同時(shí)，米奇-麥康奈爾稱這是對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)家安全的投資，米特-羅姆尼稱資助戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)是“有史以來(lái)最好的國(guó)防開支”。

These statements underscore the growing sentiment in the West that the war is a proxy battle where Ukraine is expendable, serving merely as a tool to diminish Russia. NATO’s leadership, including Jens Stoltenberg, has stated that a “victory” for Ukraine would result in a battle-hardened Ukrainian army on the West’s side, with a weakened Russia.

這些言論凸顯了西方日益增長(zhǎng)的一種情緒，即這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)是一場(chǎng)代理人戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，烏克蘭在這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中是可有可無(wú)的，它只是削弱俄羅斯的一個(gè)工具。包括延斯-斯托爾滕貝格在內(nèi)的北約領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都表示，烏克蘭的“勝利”將使西方陣營(yíng)擁有一支經(jīng)過(guò)實(shí)戰(zhàn)磨練的烏克蘭軍隊(duì)，而俄羅斯則被削弱。

Diplomacy as Treason and War as Virtue

外交是叛國(guó)，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)是美德

The West’s propaganda has frxd the conflict as a battle of good versus evil, with peace through diplomacy portrayed as dangerous appeasement. In contrast, war is presented as virtuous. In practice, this means that Western countries have continuously avoided negotiations, while pretending Russia is unwilling to engage. Despite calls for talks from US military leaders like General Mark Milley, who acknowledged Ukraine might be in a better position to negotiate after recapturing territories, the West’s strategy has been to prolong the conflict, not resolve it.

西方的宣傳把這場(chǎng)沖突描繪成一場(chǎng)正義與邪惡之戰(zhàn)，而通過(guò)外交手段實(shí)現(xiàn)和平則被描繪成危險(xiǎn)的綏靖主義。與此相反，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)則被說(shuō)成是美德。實(shí)際上，這意味著西方國(guó)家不斷回避談判，同時(shí)假裝是俄羅斯不愿參與。盡管馬克-米利將軍等美國(guó)軍事領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人呼吁進(jìn)行談判，并承認(rèn)烏克蘭在收復(fù)領(lǐng)土后可能更有條件進(jìn)行談判，但西方國(guó)家的戰(zhàn)略一直是延長(zhǎng)沖突，而不是解決沖突。

EU leaders, such as Josep Borrell and Kaja Kallas, have rejected any notion of diplomacy, dismissing Putin as a “war criminal” and portraying negotiations as unthinkable. The EU, once a peace project, has now become a geopolitical one, punishing any country or leader that dares to propose an end to the war. Hungary’s Viktor Orban was smeared for attempting to mediate, much like anyone who opposes further escalation.

歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人何塞普-博雷爾和卡雅-卡拉斯等人拒絕接受任何外交理念，將普京斥為“戰(zhàn)犯”，并將談判描繪成不可想象的事情。歐盟曾經(jīng)是一個(gè)和平項(xiàng)目，現(xiàn)在卻變成了一個(gè)地緣政治項(xiàng)目，懲罰任何敢于提出結(jié)束戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的國(guó)家或領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。匈牙利的維克托-歐爾班因試圖調(diào)停，就像任何反對(duì)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)進(jìn)一步升級(jí)的人一樣遭到污蔑。

Opponents of peace argue that conceding territory to Putin would reward his aggression, yet the war’s roots go far beyond territorial disputes. The Istanbul peace agreement showed that Russia was ready to pull back its troops in return for Ukraine’s neutrality. But NATO wasn’t interested in peace; it saw the conflict as an opportunity to weaken Russia and further entrench its military foothold in Europe.

反對(duì)和平的人認(rèn)為，向普京讓出領(lǐng)土將獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)他的侵略行徑，然而戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的根源遠(yuǎn)不止領(lǐng)土爭(zhēng)端。伊斯坦布爾的和平協(xié)議表明，俄羅斯準(zhǔn)備撤軍以換取烏克蘭的中立。但北約對(duì)和平并不感興趣，它將這場(chǎng)沖突視為削弱俄羅斯、進(jìn)一步鞏固其在歐洲的軍事立足點(diǎn)的機(jī)會(huì)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


As the war rages on, Ukrainian casualties grow, and the public’s support for the fight wanes. A Gallup poll recently revealed that no region in Ukraine has a majority supporting continued warfare. Ukrainian leaders, once hopeful, now face a reality where their own people are increasingly disillusioned.

隨著戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的持續(xù)，烏克蘭的傷亡人數(shù)不斷增加，公眾對(duì)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的支持也在減弱。最近的蓋洛普民意調(diào)查顯示，烏克蘭沒有一個(gè)地區(qū)的多數(shù)民眾是支持繼續(xù)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的。曾經(jīng)滿懷希望的烏克蘭領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人現(xiàn)在面臨的現(xiàn)實(shí)是，自己的人民已經(jīng)越來(lái)越失望。

The Coming Backlash

即將到來(lái)的反彈

As Ukraine’s frontlines collapse, there is growing recognition that NATO sabotaged peace efforts, aiming to prolong the war to bleed Russia. This strategy is ultimately backfiring. Ukrainians will resent Russia for decades, but they will also turn their anger toward the West. The idea of “fighting to the last Ukrainian” is no longer a noble cause — it’s a tragedy.

隨著烏克蘭前線的崩潰，越來(lái)越多的人認(rèn)識(shí)到，北約破壞了和平努力，目的是延長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，讓俄羅斯流血。這一戰(zhàn)略最終適得其反。烏克蘭人會(huì)對(duì)俄羅斯怨恨幾十年，但他們也會(huì)將怒火轉(zhuǎn)向西方?！皯?zhàn)斗到最后一個(gè)烏克蘭人”的想法不再是崇高的事業(yè)，而是一場(chǎng)悲劇。

The war was never about territorial disputes. It’s about NATO’s geopolitical ambitions, and it’s Ukraine that’s paying the price. The longer the conflict persists, the more it becomes clear: the West’s strategy is failing, and the war will only end when Kiev’s hostile stance toward Russia is abandoned.

這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)從來(lái)都不是為了領(lǐng)土爭(zhēng)端。它關(guān)乎北約的地緣政治野心，而付出代價(jià)的是烏克蘭。沖突持續(xù)的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)，就越清楚地表明：西方的戰(zhàn)略正在失敗，只有基輔放棄敵視俄羅斯的立場(chǎng)，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)才會(huì)結(jié)束。