美聯(lián)儲降息如何影響全球經(jīng)濟？
How Fed Rate Cuts Affect The Global Economy
譯文簡介
美聯(lián)儲管理利率，以影響美國國內(nèi)的金融狀況。但這些決定也會影響其他中央銀行的政策，因為國際金融的許多方面依賴于美元。隨著全球經(jīng)濟逐漸擺脫緊縮周期，美國的中央銀行正在尋求延續(xù)經(jīng)濟擴張，這一擴張是世界上最強勁的之一。
正文翻譯
The Federal Reserve manages interest rates to influence financial conditions within the United States. But those decisions can also affect the posture of other central banks because many aspects of international finance rely on U.S. dollars. As the world moves away from a global round of economic tightening, central bankers in the U.S. are seeking to extend the economic expansion, which is among the strongest in the world.
美聯(lián)儲管理利率，以影響美國國內(nèi)的金融狀況。但這些決定也會影響其他中央銀行的政策，因為國際金融的許多方面依賴于美元。隨著全球經(jīng)濟逐漸擺脫緊縮周期，美國的中央銀行正在尋求延續(xù)經(jīng)濟擴張，這一擴張是世界上最強勁的之一。
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The Fed's cut on interest rate keeps me pondering on what stocks to look at for at the moment considering it's impart in the economy and stock market. I have a stock portfolio of over $350k, should I hold or look out for better places to put it in cos I don't want to take a leap of faith holding cash with how the US dollars is been dued.
美聯(lián)儲降息讓我在思考目前該關注哪些股票，考慮到它對經(jīng)濟和股市的影響。我有超過35萬美元的股票投資組合，我是應該持有，還是尋找更好的投資機會，因為我不想在美元貶值的情況下僅僅持有現(xiàn)金。
Man, these Fed rate cuts are really starting to mess with everything. I mean, sure, they were supposed to help, but now I’m feeling the pinch everywhere. My savings account is basically giving me nothing, and the stock market’s all over the place.
伙計，這些美聯(lián)儲降息真的是在搞亂一切。我是說，降息本來是為了幫助，但現(xiàn)在我感覺到處都在縮水。我的儲蓄賬戶幾乎沒有收益，股市也是波動不定。
What's the best strategy for investing during this period of volatility? Most of my portfolio is in cash, and I'm looking to invest about $180K in stocks.
在這個波動時期，投資的最佳策略是什么？我的投資組合大部分是現(xiàn)金，我想投資約18萬美元到股票中。
Thanks for your content, I’ve picked up so much new information.
感謝你的內(nèi)容，我學到了很多新信息。
This interest rate cut leaves me pondering what stocks to buy now and when do I sell? I'm unsure how to properly allocate my money to achieve an optimal portfolio in this present economy, my goal is $3m for retirement.
這次降息讓我在思考現(xiàn)在該買哪些股票，以及什么時候賣出？我不確定如何合理分配我的資金，以在當前經(jīng)濟中實現(xiàn)最佳投資組合，我的退休目標是300萬美元。
Sounds like a skeptical outlook on things then. With the rate cuts do you think it's best for us who are not conservative investors to focus on bonds or dividend stocks? I want to reallocate my 7-figure portfolio and I preferably want the assets with the best ROI.
聽起來你對事情持懷疑態(tài)度。那么在降息的情況下，你認為對于我們這些不是保守型投資者的人來說，是應該關注債券還是分紅股票呢？我想重新配置我的七位數(shù)投資組合，最好是選擇那些回報率最高的資產(chǎn)。
The Fed is undoubtedly responsible for the present catch-up efforts, as they were first too slow to control inflation. The pandemic, supply-chain issues, are all contributing reasons to the impending inflationary perfect storm. I'm still looking for companies to make additions to my $500K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas...
美聯(lián)儲無疑對目前的追趕努力負責，因為他們最初在控制通貨膨脹方面行動過于緩慢。疫情、供應鏈問題都是導致即將到來的通貨膨脹完美風暴的原因。我仍在尋找可以增加到我50萬美元投資組合中的公司，以提升表現(xiàn)。這里尋求一些想法……
I will miss making a safe 3-5% return with money markets and CDs. Get ready to have to take on more risk to get the same reward that interest used to pay on cash.
我會懷念在貨幣市場和定期存款中獲得安全的3-5%的回報。準備好承擔更多風險，以獲得與現(xiàn)金以前的利息相同的回報。
To be a successful business owner and investor, you have to be emotionally neutral to winning and losing. Winning and losing are just part of the game. Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.
作為一個成功的企業(yè)主和投資者，你必須對勝負保持情感中立。勝負只是游戲的一部分。風險來自于對自己所做事情的不了解。
Since the video is about the Federal Reserve, the experts with PhDs in economics will flood the comments to chime in on monetary theory.
由于視頻是關于聯(lián)邦儲備的，擁有經(jīng)濟學博士的專家們將會蜂擁而至，在評論區(qū)討論貨幣理論。
Our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy >>and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.
我們的經(jīng)濟就像一條掙扎的魚，拼命爭取生存。美國經(jīng)濟的正常狀態(tài)實際上是非常糟糕的。正因為如此，它才會在絕望中進行劇烈掙扎，試圖以任何方式增長。各種技巧、花招和規(guī)則變化試圖刺激經(jīng)濟，防止其下滑，但這些僅僅帶來暫時的緩解，因為當你考慮到通貨膨脹時，我們實際上是在下降的。
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Why does it feel like every time the Fed moves, my wallet gets lighter?
為什么每次美聯(lián)儲行動時，我的錢包感覺都變輕了？
You don't need an heir, you can and probably will have a multipolar financial system at some point, or at least oligopoly. A similar situation was happening in Europe between the French, German and British currencies before the Euro
你不需要繼承人，未來你可能會擁有一個多極金融體系，或者至少是寡頭壟斷。在歐元之前，法國、德國和英國貨幣之間就發(fā)生過類似的情況。
The idea that wages inspire inflation is ridiculous, since , purchasing power of wages has been declining for more than 50 years in the USA. Everyone senses and realizes that government spending and big business pricing power are the number one causes of inflation. The internal causes within those organizations that promotes purchasing power theft is the corruption and inefficiency of the organizations involved.
工資導致通貨膨脹的觀點是荒謬的，因為在美國，工資的購買力在過去50多年里一直在下降。每個人都意識到，政府支出和大企業(yè)的定價權是通貨膨脹的頭號原因。這些組織內(nèi)部導致購買力流失的原因是相關組織的腐敗和低效。
Rate cuts change the game for everyone. Businesses will be less restricted on the spending front and likewise with consumers. As an investor, this is a HUGE. A bull run is scoming!
降息改變了每個人的游戲規(guī)則。企業(yè)在支出方面將受到更少的限制，消費者也是如此。作為投資者，這是一個巨大的機會。一波牛市即將來臨！
i think.
The Federal Reserve is the most powerful central bank in the world, and its interest rate adjustments have a significant impact on the dollar and the global economy. Since the dollar is the world's reserve currency, the Fed's policies have an even greater effect on emerging markets. In times of crisis, the Fed provides liquidity to other countries through swap lines, stabilizing financial markets, which highlights the Fed's crucial role in the global economy.
我認為，美聯(lián)儲是世界上最強大的中央銀行，其利率調(diào)整對美元和全球經(jīng)濟有著重要影響。由于美元是世界儲備貨幣，美聯(lián)儲的政策對新興市場的影響更為顯著。在危機時期，美聯(lián)儲通過互換協(xié)議向其他國家提供流動性，穩(wěn)定金融市場，這突顯了美聯(lián)儲在全球經(jīng)濟中的關鍵作用。
You must be one who is better off with your term deposits with high interest rate on most are suffering financially
你一定是一個在高利率定期存款中受益的人，而大多數(shù)人則在財務上遭受困擾。
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You know what it means It's still high 3 to 4 Is the sweat stop 5 close to 6 Not worth it. Wait year or 2 when it hits 3 to 4 that the better spot to buy a house or Property. this cut is mainly for the rich people to buy property for cheaper.
你知道這意味著什么，現(xiàn)在的利率仍然很高，3到4%時才能止住汗水，接近5%到6%時不值得。等一年或兩年，等降到3到4%時再買房或地產(chǎn)會更好。此次降息主要是讓富人能以更低的價格購置房地產(chǎn)。
This rate cut is one of the economic events of all time I'l tell you that much
這次降息是歷史上最重要的經(jīng)濟事件之一，我可以告訴你這一點。
The EU lowered rates first. Confused by the implication that all others follow the fed. Only two major banks lowered rates. The fed and the ECB, and the ECB did it a week before
歐盟先降了利率。我對“其他所有人都跟隨美聯(lián)儲”的說法感到困惑。只有兩家主要銀行降了利率：美聯(lián)儲和歐洲央行，而歐洲央行是在一周前做的。
A slow down coming to the US job market? Speak to anyone who is searching for a job that isn't minimum wage and they'll tell you it's already here.
美國就業(yè)市場即將放緩？和任何正在尋找非最低工資工作的人的談話，他們會告訴你，這種情況已經(jīng)來了。
The economist assumed EV is forced by the countries debt saturated and could not stay old model any more. Part is true But not the main reason. Those companies' CEOs are super experienced and wisdom enough to know what they want to do. It' s very personal ambition rather than country's task.
經(jīng)濟學家假設電動車是由于各國債務飽和所迫，無法再維持舊模式。這部分是正確的，但不是主要原因。這些公司的首席執(zhí)行官經(jīng)驗豐富，知道他們想做什么。這更多是個人的雄心，而不是國家的任務。
The amount of insider trading by the private organisation called the FED
美聯(lián)儲這個私人機構的內(nèi)部交易數(shù)量驚人。
Just a heads up, every single time in history that the FED started their rate cutting cycle by 50 BPS, we’ve entered a recession within a calendar year.
提醒一下，歷史上每次美聯(lián)儲以50個基點開始降息周期，我們在一年內(nèi)都進入了衰退。！
The Federal Reserve was created in 1913 to stabilize the U.S. economy after frequent financial panics in the 19th century. Over the years, it’s become a major player in the global economy, influencing markets far beyond U.S. borders.
美聯(lián)儲成立于1913年，旨在在19世紀頻繁的金融恐慌后穩(wěn)定美國經(jīng)濟。多年來，它已成為全球經(jīng)濟的重要參與者，影響著超越美國國界的市場。
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Central Bank's e-currencies are the same as paper currency - it changes nothing about the strength of a currency - specially because international transactions are already electronic.
中央銀行的電子貨幣與紙幣是一樣的——這對貨幣的強度沒有任何影響——特別是因為國際交易已經(jīng)是電子化的。
Everything non dollar will appreciate
一切非美元貨幣將升值。
The FED is not a BANK and do not have reserves. is the institution that indicate the usury rate.
美聯(lián)儲不是一家銀行，沒有儲備。它是指示美國利率的機構。
Would have been better for inflation if they didn’t announce the rate cuts at all. If the fed went this route, then there would not be an immediate increase in the rate of inflation in Lou with the rate cuts
如果美聯(lián)儲根本不宣布降息，可能對通貨膨脹會更好。如果美聯(lián)儲走這條路，那么降息后在路易斯安那州的通貨膨脹率就不會立即上升。
The average person has never been so poor. Millions of families are struggling financially as living expenses hit the highest levels in more than four decades. Over 60% of our country lives paycheck to paycheck and about 40% earns poverty wages. Even after working all their lives, more than a quarter of older people have no savings and many believe they will never be able to retire in dignity, while around 55% of elderly people try to survive on an income of less than 25,000 a year.
普通人從未如此貧窮。數(shù)百萬家庭在經(jīng)濟上苦苦掙扎，生活費用達到了四十多年來的最高水平。超過60%的家庭靠薪水維持生活，約40%的人收入低于貧困線。即使一生都在工作，超過四分之一的老年人沒有儲蓄，許多人相信他們永遠無法體面地退休，而大約55%的老年人則試圖靠每年不到25,000美元的收入生存。
Honestly, this situation makes me uneasy, especially with the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bps. It's a sign of deeper economic concerns, and I'm unsure about my $130K investment strategy given the potential for not just a recession but possibly a depression.
老實說，這種情況讓我感到不安，特別是美聯(lián)儲降息50個基點。這是更深層經(jīng)濟擔憂的跡象，對于我13萬美元的投資策略，我對潛在的衰退甚至可能的經(jīng)濟蕭條感到不確定。
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Debt is too high. This will just be a small temporary band-Aid.
債務太高了。這只會是一個小的臨時補救措施。
Lowering rates ironically reduces inflationary pressures and eventually will gravitate towards the rate of inflation.
降息反而會減輕通貨膨脹壓力，最終將趨向于通貨膨脹率。
Inflation was caused by over injections during Covid especially Quantitive Easing. Recovery was messy but happened then rates needed to hike up as Inflation was running away. Economy starting to cool and inflation less serious so right time to cut rates to re stimulate the economy. Still no real competition globally to the Dollar though the Yuan in some areas like Africa is getting stronger.
通貨膨脹是由于在疫情期間過度注入資金，特別是量化寬松造成的。復蘇過程混亂但最終發(fā)生了，然后需要加息，因為通貨膨脹失控。經(jīng)濟開始降溫，通貨膨脹不那么嚴重，因此是時候降息以重新刺激經(jīng)濟。不過，美元在全球仍然沒有真正的競爭對手，盡管人民幣在一些地區(qū)（如非洲）正在變得更強。
Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in last month 2024
今天達到了20萬美元。感謝你在過去幾個月中給予我的所有知識和建議。我上個月才從1.4萬美元起步。
The Feds has unleashed chaos! every day we encounter novel challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $280,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
美聯(lián)儲釋放了混亂！我們每天都面臨新的挑戰(zhàn)，這些挑戰(zhàn)已經(jīng)成為新的常態(tài)。雖然我們之前把這視為危機，但現(xiàn)在我們承認這就是新常態(tài)，必須相應適應。鑒于2024年國家面臨的經(jīng)濟困難，我們?nèi)绾卧谶@個調(diào)整期間提高收入？我不能讓我的28萬美元的儲蓄在努力積累之后消失。
Given reduced inflation signals and as the Federal Reserve has halted rate hikes, what are the best additions for a $120K portfolio to enhance the overall performance of my portfolio this year
鑒于通脹信號減弱，以及美聯(lián)儲已停止加息，如何為我的12萬美元投資組合增加最佳資產(chǎn)，以提升今年的整體表現(xiàn)？
Our economy is struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
我們的經(jīng)濟正面臨不確定性、住房問題、止贖、全球波動，造成不穩(wěn)定。通脹上升、增長緩慢和貿(mào)易干擾需要所有部門的緊急關注，以恢復穩(wěn)定并刺激增長。
US socialism on full display. In a socialist economic model, the production of goods and services is either partially or fully regulated by the government; this is referred to as central planning, and the economic structure that is created is known as a planned economy or a command economy.
美國的社會主義全面展現(xiàn)。在社會主義經(jīng)濟模型中，商品和服務的生產(chǎn)部分或完全由政府監(jiān)管；這稱為中央計劃，所形成的經(jīng)濟結構被稱為計劃經(jīng)濟或指令經(jīng)濟。
It became the most important because of Breton Woods and the fact that John Maynard Keynes lost there. Since the international currency became the Dollar, the FED - who controls the Dollar - also controls the world's economy. The FED's interest rates are, therefore, the rates that set other countries' interest rates. Really funny to hear CNBC not mentioning developing and poor countries on a video about the "global economy". Poor and developing countries have to increase their interest rates to 3 to 4 times that of the FED. Paul Volker's 1970s-1980s interest rate hike may have caused more pain and death around the world than many of the US military adventures abroad.
它之所以變得如此重要，是因為布雷頓森林會議以及約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯在其中的失敗。由于國際貨幣成為美元，控制美元的美聯(lián)儲也就控制了世界經(jīng)濟。因此，美聯(lián)儲的利率就是其他國家設定利率的基準。聽到CNBC在談論“全球經(jīng)濟”時沒有提到發(fā)展中國家和貧窮國家，實在令人覺得滑稽。貧窮和發(fā)展中國家不得不將利率提高到美聯(lián)儲的3到4倍。保羅·沃爾克在1970年代和1980年代的加息可能導致的痛苦和死亡，可能超過了美國在海外的許多軍事冒險。
The rich stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without hesitating then the poor stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich
富人通過像窮人一樣消費和毫不猶豫地投資來保持富有，而窮人則通過像富人一樣消費，但卻沒有像富人那樣投資而繼續(xù)貧窮。
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The Fed's talk of interest rate cut leaves me pondering what stocks to buy now and when do I sell? I'm unsure how to properly allocate my money to achieve an optimal portfolio in this present economy, my goal is $3m for retirement.
美聯(lián)儲談論降息讓我思考，現(xiàn)在該買哪些股票，什么時候賣？我不確定如何合理配置資金，以在當前經(jīng)濟環(huán)境中實現(xiàn)最佳投資組合，我的目標是為退休積累300萬美元。
This video did not touch on the most important issue about the USD at the moment. I.E. the debt climbing 1 T every 100 days.
這個視頻沒有觸及當前美元最重要的問題，即債務每100天增加1萬億。
My small business is bankrupt after 12 years because of a high interest rate policy
由于高利率政策，我的小企業(yè)在經(jīng)營12年后破產(chǎn)。
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Cut right before the election to help Kamala while driving inflation higher. Homes and cars prices will continue to rise. Free money
在選舉前降息來幫助哈里斯，同時推動通脹上升。房價和汽車價格將繼續(xù)上漲。免費資金。
I dont see how us economy is considered the biggest when brics are well ahead in global gdp share. I also do not understand why us economy is strong while on 7% deficit spending to succeed a marginal growth of 2.5%. USD debasement has kick started with gov decission to shut down economy (mistakenly reported stimmy checks), continous with the weaponisation of the currency and skyrockets with monetary settlements between bricks nations.
我不明白為什么美國經(jīng)濟被認為是最大的，而金磚國家在全球GDP份額上遙遙領先。我也不明白為什么美國經(jīng)濟在7%的赤字支出下仍然強勁，而這種支出僅能實現(xiàn)2.5%的微薄增長。美元貶值已經(jīng)開始，政府決定關閉經(jīng)濟（錯誤地報告為刺激支票），并繼續(xù)通過貨幣武器化，隨著金磚國家之間的貨幣結算而急劇上升。
I'm favoured financially with Bitcoin ETFs approval, Thank you buddy. $32,000 weekly profit regardless of how bad it gets on the economy.
比特幣ETF獲批讓我在財務上受益，謝謝你，朋友。無論經(jīng)濟狀況多糟，每周都有32,000美元的利潤。