Seeing efforts to seize Russian assets in the US and the EU, rich Gulf investors are getting worried about the safety of their own wealth

看到美國和歐盟試圖扣押俄羅斯資產(chǎn)，海灣地區(qū)的富裕投資者開始擔心自己的財富安全。

Private property has always been regarded as something sacred for humanity. Today, however, this sanctity and inviolability of private property are under threat. In the modern world, where economic and political instability are becoming increasingly common, the legal systems and international agreements designed to protect property rights are facing new challenges. Asset confiscation, economic sanctions, and political pressure threaten the traditional notions of property inviolability, forcing people to reassess their beliefs and seek new ways to safeguard their interests.

私有財產(chǎn)歷來被人類視為神圣之物，但今天私有財產(chǎn)的神圣性和不可侵犯性卻受到威脅。在經(jīng)濟和政治不穩(wěn)定日益普遍的當今世界，旨在保護產(chǎn)權(quán)的法律體系和國際協(xié)議正面臨著新的挑戰(zhàn)。資產(chǎn)沒收、經(jīng)濟制裁和政治壓力威脅著財產(chǎn)不可侵犯的傳統(tǒng)觀念，迫使人們重新評估自己的信念并尋求新的方式來維護自己的利益。

Last week, global media outlets reported that at the beginning of this year, Saudi Arabia hinted at the possibility of selling some of its European debt holdings if the G7 countries moved forward with plans to confiscate nearly $300 billion of Russia’s frozen assets. This information came from sources familiar with the situation, adding a layer of complexity to the already tense geopolitical landscape.

上周，全球媒體報道稱，今年初，沙特暗示，如果七國集團繼續(xù)實施沒收俄羅斯近 3000 億美元凍結(jié)資產(chǎn)的計劃，沙特可能會出售部分歐洲債務(wù)。這一消息來自知情人士，這給本已緊張的地緣政治格局增添了一層復(fù)雜性。

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance communicated to some G7 partners its strong disapproval of the proposed measure, which was intended to support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. One insider described the communication as a veiled threat, highlighting the kingdom’s serious intent to protect its financial interests. The Saudis specifically mentioned French Treasury-issued debts, underscoring their strategic approach to leveraging their economic influence.

沙特阿拉伯財政部向一些 G7 伙伴表達了強烈反對這項旨在支持烏克蘭與俄羅斯沖突的措施的提議。一位內(nèi)部人士稱，此次通話是一種含蓄的威脅，凸顯了沙特保護其金融利益的嚴肅意圖。沙特特別提到了法國國債，強調(diào)了他們利用經(jīng)濟影響力的戰(zhàn)略方針。

During the period from May to June, G7 countries deliberated over various options concerning the Russian Central Bank’s assets. The discussions were intense and multifaceted, considering both the legal and economic ramifications. Ultimately, the group reached a consensus to utilize only the earnings generated from these assets, leaving the principal intact. This cautious approach was adopted despite considerable pressure from the United States and the United Kingdom, which advocated for more assertive measures, including the direct confiscation of Russian assets.

5 月至 6 月期間，七國集團就俄羅斯央行資產(chǎn)的各種選擇進行了討論。討論非常激烈，涉及多個方面，既考慮了法律影響，也考慮了經(jīng)濟影響。最終，七國集團達成共識，只使用這些資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生的收益，本金保持不變。盡管美國和英國施加了相當大的壓力，主張采取更加強硬的措施，包括直接沒收俄羅斯資產(chǎn)，但俄羅斯仍采取了這種謹慎的態(tài)度。
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The proposal to confiscate Russian assets outright faced significant resistance, particularly from some Eurozone member countries. These nations expressed concerns about the potential negative repercussions on their own currencies and broader economic stability. This internal opposition within the G7 highlighted a notable division among its members, revealing that not all were prepared to endorse radical measures. This divide persists even as the conflict in Ukraine continues and the necessity to support its beleaguered economy grows more urgent.

沒收俄羅斯資產(chǎn)的提議遭到了強烈抵制，尤其是來自一些歐元區(qū)成員國的抵制。這些國家擔心這可能會對本國貨幣和更廣泛的經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)生負面影響。七國集團內(nèi)部的這種反對情緒凸顯了其成員國之間的明顯分歧，表明并非所有成員國都愿意支持激進措施。即使烏克蘭沖突仍在繼續(xù)，支持其陷入困境的經(jīng)濟的必要性也變得更加迫切，這種分歧仍然存在。

Additionally, the broader implications of Saudi Arabia’s stance cannot be ignored. The kingdom’s potential sale of European debt holdings could have a ripple effect across global financial markets, potentially destabilizing the delicate balance of international debt and equity markets. Such a move would also signify a significant geopolitical shift, demonstrating Saudi Arabia’s willingness to use its economic power as a tool of political influence.

此外，沙特阿拉伯立場的廣泛影響也不容忽視。沙特出售歐洲債務(wù)可能在全球金融市場產(chǎn)生連鎖反應(yīng)，有可能破壞國際債務(wù)和股票市場微妙的平衡。此舉也將標志著地緣政治的重大轉(zhuǎn)變，表明沙特愿意利用其經(jīng)濟實力作為政治影響力的工具。

The G7’s cautious decision to utilize only the earnings from Russian assets reflects a broader hesitation to escalate financial sanctions to the point of asset confiscation. This decision underscores the complexity of international financial diplomacy, where economic decisions are intricately tied to political and strategic considerations. As the situation evolves, the international community will be closely watching how these financial and geopolitical strategies unfold, particularly in the context of the conflict in Ukraine and the global economic landscape.

七國集團謹慎決定只利用俄羅斯資產(chǎn)收益，反映出其對將金融制裁升級到?jīng)]收資產(chǎn)的猶豫。這一決定凸顯了國際金融外交的復(fù)雜性，因為經(jīng)濟決策與政治和戰(zhàn)略考慮密切相關(guān)。隨著局勢的發(fā)展，國際社會將密切關(guān)注這些金融和地緣政治戰(zhàn)略如何展開，特別是在烏克蘭沖突和全球經(jīng)濟格局的背景下。

Riyadh has serious clout
Against the backdrop of escalating international tensions and economic sanctions, Saudi Arabia’s reaction to the potential measures by G7 countries to confiscate Russian assets has garnered significant attention. The kingdom not only voiced its discontent but also hinted at possible economic countermeasures, highlighting its growing influence on the global stage and its strategic intentions.

利雅得具有重大影響力
在國際緊張局勢升級和經(jīng)濟制裁的背景下，沙特對七國集團可能采取措施沒收俄羅斯資產(chǎn)的反應(yīng)備受關(guān)注。沙特不僅表達了不滿，還暗示可能采取經(jīng)濟反制措施，凸顯其在全球舞臺上日益增長的影響力及其戰(zhàn)略意圖。

Saudi Arabia’s active investments in Western markets through its sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), underscore its significant financial clout. The PIF is a cornerstone of the ambitious Vision 2030 program, which aims to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on oil revenues.

沙特阿拉伯通過其主權(quán)財富基金公共投資基金 (PIF) 積極投資西方市場，彰顯了其巨大的金融影響力。PIF 是雄心勃勃的“2030 愿景”計劃的基石，該計劃旨在實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟多元化并減少對石油收入的依賴。

By the end of 2023, PIF managed assets totaling approximately $925 billion, with plans to increase this to $1.07 trillion by 2025. Additionally, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) holds substantial foreign reserves, estimated at $423.7 billion as of April this year.

截至 2023 年底，PIF 管理的資產(chǎn)總額約為 9250 億美元，并計劃到 2025 年將這一數(shù)字增至 1.07 萬億美元。此外，沙特阿拉伯貨幣管理局 (SAMA) 擁有大量外匯儲備，截至今年 4 月估計為 4237 億美元。

The PIF’s investment strategy spans various sectors and regions. For example, the fund invested $45 billion in the UK-based SoftBank Vision Fund, focusing on technological innovations. In 2023, PIF announced plans to invest $40 billion in US infrastructure projects, with $20 billion already allocated to a joint project with Blackstone. According to Gulf Business, in 2021, the fund acquired significant stakes in American video game companies such as Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard, and in 2022, it purchased a 5% stake in the Japanese company Nintendo.

PIF 的投資策略涵蓋多個行業(yè)和地區(qū)。例如，該基金向總部位于英國的軟銀愿景基金投資了 450 億美元，專注于技術(shù)創(chuàng)新。2023 年，PIF 宣布計劃向美國基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目投資 400 億美元，其中 200 億美元已分配給與黑石的聯(lián)合項目。據(jù)《海灣商業(yè)》報道，2021年，該基金收購了藝電、動視暴雪等美國視頻游戲公司的大量股份，2022年又收購了日本任天堂5%的股份。

Beyond the technology sector, PIF is actively investing in real estate, infrastructure, and financial services. In November 2023, the fund acquired a 10% stake in Heathrow Airport, and in December, it purchased a 49% stake in the Rocco Forte hotel chain, valued at $1.8 billion. This year, the fund also acquired a 38% stake in the German company HOLON GmbH.

除了科技領(lǐng)域，PIF 還積極投資房地產(chǎn)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和金融服務(wù)。2023 年 11 月，該基金收購了希思羅機場 10% 的股份，12 月，該基金收購了 Rocco Forte 連鎖酒店 49% 的股份，價值 18 億美元。今年，該基金還收購了德國公司 HOLON GmbH 38% 的股份。

Riyadh’s concerns are well-founded, as the authorities are anxious about the potential fate of their Western assets, which are estimated to be worth up to $600 billion. Currently, Saudi Arabia’s relations with the West are strained, both with Washington and Brussels, which continuously exert pressure on the kingdom due to its reluctance to join in isolating Russia and to pursue a pro-Western foreign policy.

利雅得的擔憂是有道理的，因為當局對其西方資產(chǎn)的潛在命運感到焦慮，這些資產(chǎn)估計價值高達 6000 億美元。目前，沙特與西方的關(guān)系緊張，華盛頓和布魯塞爾都不斷向沙特施壓，因為沙特不愿加入孤立俄羅斯的行列，也不愿推行親西方的外交政策。

Regardless of the motives, Saudi Arabia’s actions underscore its growing influence on the global stage and the challenges Western countries face in garnering support from the Global South for their anti-Russian policies. Under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh is increasingly positioning itself as a diplomatic force and diversifying its foreign policy and economic ties with Moscow, Beijing, and other non-Western power centers.

無論動機如何，沙特的行動凸顯了其在全球舞臺上日益增長的影響力，以及西方國家在爭取全球南方國家支持其反俄政策方面所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。在沙特阿拉伯事實上的統(tǒng)治者王儲穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，利雅得日益將自己定位為一支外交力量，并使其外交政策和經(jīng)濟關(guān)系多樣化，與莫斯科、北京和其他非西方權(quán)力中心保持聯(lián)系。

The end of the dollar era?
In recent months, the world has witnessed significant shifts in the global economic landscape. Saudi Arabia, long a key player in maintaining the US dollar as the dominant currency in global trade, is taking steps that could radically alter this dynamic. The kingdom’s decision to not renew the 50-year-old petrodollar agreement with the US and its active participation in de-dollarization raise critical questions: Will these actions herald the end of the dollar era, and what could be the consequences for the global economy?

美元時代終結(jié)？
近幾個月來，世界見證了全球經(jīng)濟格局的重大變化。長期以來，沙特阿拉伯一直是維持美元作為全球貿(mào)易主導(dǎo)貨幣的關(guān)鍵角色，而該國正在采取可能徹底改變這一格局的措施。沙特決定不再與美國續(xù)簽已有50年歷史的石油美元協(xié)議，并積極參與去美元化，這引發(fā)了一個關(guān)鍵問題：這些舉措是否預(yù)示著美元時代的終結(jié)？這將對全球經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生什么影響？

The petrodollar agreement, signed by Saudi Arabia and the US on June 8, 1974, became a cornerstone of America’s global economic influence. This agreement established joint commissions for economic cooperation and meeting Saudi Arabia’s military needs. In return, the kingdom committed to selling oil exclusively in US dollars, bolstering the American currency’s position on the world stage and maintaining high demand for the dollar.

1974年6月8日，沙特與美國簽署的石油美元協(xié)議成為美國全球經(jīng)濟影響力的基石。該協(xié)議設(shè)立了經(jīng)濟合作和滿足沙特軍事需求的聯(lián)合委員會。作為回報，沙特承諾只以美元出售石油，以鞏固美元在世界舞臺上的地位并維持對美元的高需求。

On June 9 of this year, Saudi Arabia decided not to renew this pivotal agreement. The kingdom now has the flexibility to sell oil and other commodities using various currencies, such as the yuan, euro, or yen, instead of the US dollar. Additionally, the possibility of using digital currencies like Bitcoin for transactions is being explored. This move opens new avenues for diversifying economic relations and reducing dependence on the US dollar, thereby accelerating the global trend toward using alternative currencies in international trade.

今年6月9日，沙特決定不再續(xù)簽這一關(guān)鍵協(xié)議。沙特現(xiàn)在可以使用人民幣、歐元或日元等多種貨幣（而非美元）來靈活地銷售石油和其他商品。此外，使用比特幣等數(shù)字貨幣進行交易的可能性也在探索之中。此舉為實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟關(guān)系多元化、減少對美元的依賴開辟了新途徑，從而加速了全球在國際貿(mào)易中使用替代貨幣的趨勢。

Particular attention should be given to the role of the BRICS group of countries, of which Saudi Arabia became a member on January 1, 2024. The BRICS nations actively promote the use of national currencies in international transactions and are developing their own financial institutions. De-dollarization is becoming increasingly relevant, especially for emerging economies seeking to reduce their reliance on the US currency and financial system.

應(yīng)特別關(guān)注金磚國家集團的作用，沙特阿拉伯于2024年1月1日成為金磚國家集團成員。金磚國家積極推動在國際交易中使用本國貨幣，并發(fā)展自己的金融機構(gòu)。去美元化變得越來越重要，特別是對于尋求減少對美國貨幣和金融體系依賴的新興經(jīng)濟體而言。

Saudi Arabia’s decision and the BRICS countries’ push for de-dollarization could have significant repercussions for the global economy. If de-dollarization continues to gain momentum, it could lead to a decreased demand for the dollar, impacting its value. A weakening dollar might challenge the United States’ ability to maintain its financial stability and global influence.

沙特阿拉伯的決定和金磚國家推動去美元化的舉措可能會對全球經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生重大影響。如果去美元化繼續(xù)發(fā)展，可能會導(dǎo)致對美元的需求下降，從而影響美元的價值。美元貶值可能會挑戰(zhàn)美國維持金融穩(wěn)定和全球影響力的能力。

Despite significant strides toward de-dollarization, declaring the end of the dollar as the world’s primary currency is premature. The dollar still holds a central place in international transactions and the reserve assets of central banks worldwide. However, Saudi Arabia’s actions and the BRICS’ ambitions indicate a growing movement toward a multipolar currency system, where the dollar is no longer the sole dominant player.

盡管在去美元化方面取得了重大進展，但宣布美元作為世界主要貨幣的地位已經(jīng)終結(jié)還為時過早。美元在國際交易和世界各國央行的儲備資產(chǎn)中仍然占據(jù)著核心地位。然而，沙特的行動和金磚國家的雄心表明，多極貨幣體系的趨勢日益明顯，美元不再是唯一的主導(dǎo)者。

One-way road to destruction
Amid global economic and political uncertainty, the G7 countries find it increasingly challenging to identify ways to support Ukraine and counteract Russia. Their decisions have far-reaching implications, influencing global economic relations and financial stability. In June, after extended discussions at the summit in Italy, a decision was made to establish a financial structure that would provide Ukraine with approximately $50 billion in new aid.

走向毀滅的單行道
在全球經(jīng)濟和政治不確定的背景下，七國集團發(fā)現(xiàn)，如何支持烏克蘭、如何制衡俄羅斯變得越來越困難。他們的決定影響深遠，影響著全球經(jīng)濟關(guān)系和金融穩(wěn)定。今年6月，在意大利峰會上經(jīng)過長時間討論后，決定建立一個金融架構(gòu)，向烏克蘭提供約500億美元的新援助。

The seven participating countries and the EU agreed to extend loans to be repaid from the profits generated by around $280 billion in frozen Russian assets, most of which are held in Europe. This decision was a compromise, as there is no consensus even among Western states, given the potentially catastrophic consequences of confiscating Russian assets.

七個參與國和歐盟同意延長貸款期限，用凍結(jié)俄羅斯資產(chǎn)約 2800 億美元所產(chǎn)生的利潤來償還，這些資產(chǎn)大部分存放在歐洲。這一決定是一種妥協(xié)，因為考慮到?jīng)]收俄羅斯資產(chǎn)可能帶來的災(zāi)難性后果，即使是西方國家也沒有達成共識。

Firstly, the seizure of Russian assets sets a dangerous precedent in the international financial system. Traditionally, state reserves held abroad were considered untouchable. Their confiscation could undermine the confidence of nations in the safety of their funds stored in foreign banks and financial institutions. This might lead countries to reconsider their reserve placement policies and result in a mass withdrawal of assets from foreign financial systems, causing turbulence in financial markets and weakening the stability of the international financial system.

首先，扣押俄羅斯資產(chǎn)在國際金融體系中開創(chuàng)了一個危險的先例。傳統(tǒng)上，俄羅斯在海外持有的儲備資產(chǎn)被認為是不可觸碰的。沒收這些資金可能會削弱各國對其存放在外國銀行和金融機構(gòu)的資金安全的信心。這可能導(dǎo)致各國重新考慮其儲備配置政策，并導(dǎo)致大規(guī)模資產(chǎn)從國外金融體系撤出，造成金融市場的動蕩，削弱國際金融體系的穩(wěn)定性。

Moreover, such actions could push nations to seek alternative financial institutions and instruments independent of the G7 countries. This could strengthen regional economic blocs, foster the development of new financial systems such as China’s CIPS, and support BRICS initiatives to use national currencies, thereby reducing the influence of Western financial institutions and the US dollar in the global economy.

此外，此類舉措可能促使各國尋求獨立于七國集團國家的替代金融機構(gòu)和工具。這可以加強區(qū)域經(jīng)濟集團，促進中國人民幣跨境支付系統(tǒng)（CIPS）等新金融體系的發(fā)展，并支持金磚國家使用本國貨幣的舉措，從而減少西方金融機構(gòu)和美元在全球經(jīng)濟中的影響力。

The seizure of Russian assets also raises serious questions regarding international law. Fundamental principles of international law, such as the sovereign equality of states and the inviolability of property, could be violated by such actions. Sovereign equality implies that all states have equal rights and sovereignty, and their assets cannot be confiscated without legal grounds. The inviolability of property is a fundamental right protecting states’ assets from unlawful seizure.

扣押俄羅斯資產(chǎn)還引發(fā)了有關(guān)國際法的嚴重問題。此類行動可能會違反國際法的基本原則，例如國家主權(quán)平等和財產(chǎn)不可侵犯。主權(quán)平等意味著所有國家都享有平等的權(quán)利和主權(quán)，其資產(chǎn)不得在沒有法律依據(jù)的情況下被沒收。財產(chǎn)不可侵犯是一項基本權(quán)利，旨在保護國家資產(chǎn)免遭非法扣押。

The situation surrounding the potential confiscation of Russian assets remains tense and reflects the breakdown of the old world order. Saudi Arabia’s decision to sell European debt obligations could significantly impact financial markets, especially if it occurs amid existing economic problems in Europe. Additionally, other concerned regional investor states like the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and others might follow Riyadh’s lead in selling off European bonds.

俄羅斯資產(chǎn)可能被沒收的局勢依然緊張，反映出舊世界秩序的崩潰。沙特阿拉伯出售歐洲債務(wù)的決定可能會對金融市場產(chǎn)生重大影響，尤其是如果這一決定發(fā)生在歐洲經(jīng)濟問題當前的情況下。此外，阿聯(lián)酋、卡塔爾、科威特等其他關(guān)注的地區(qū)投資者國家可能會效仿利雅得，拋售歐洲債券。

The modern global economy faces new challenges that require a reuation of existing mechanisms and strategies. The decision of the G7 leaders at the summit in Italy is seen as an attempt to balance interests and find compromise solutions amid global instability. However, the seizure of Russian assets and possible retaliatory measures from Saudi Arabia and other countries could significantly alter the balance of power in the international financial system. In these conditions, it is crucial to seek new paths for cooperation and stability to avoid destructive consequences for the global economy. Therefore, as the old world order, dominated by the West for decades, fades, an increasing number of countries from the global majority are interested in new mechanisms of global governance based on non-Western institutions, particularly BRICS.

當今世界經(jīng)濟面臨新的挑戰(zhàn)，需要重新審視既有的機制和戰(zhàn)略，七國集團領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在意大利峰會上的決定，被視為在全球不穩(wěn)定局勢下平衡利益、尋求妥協(xié)解決方案的嘗試。然而，俄羅斯資產(chǎn)被扣押以及沙特阿拉伯和其他國家可能采取的報復(fù)措施可能會顯著改變國際金融體系的力量平衡。在這種情況下，尋求合作與穩(wěn)定的新道路以避免對全球經(jīng)濟造成破壞性后果至關(guān)重要。因此，隨著西方主導(dǎo)的舊世界秩序逐漸衰落，越來越多的世界大多數(shù)國家對基于非西方機構(gòu)、特別是金磚國家建立的全球治理新機制感興趣。

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