油管博主稱印度無(wú)法成為下一個(gè)中國(guó)，引發(fā)印度網(wǎng)友討論
Indian Economy: News and Discussion
譯文簡(jiǎn)介
網(wǎng)友：與中國(guó)相比：我們目前在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面確實(shí)落后于他們，當(dāng)然制造業(yè)也落后。但我們正在迎頭趕上。三星已經(jīng)開(kāi)始在印度建廠，哪怕只是最基本的組裝廠，也沒(méi)必要如此唱衰印度吧？難道你指望外資不試運(yùn)行就立刻投資數(shù)十億美元？......
正文翻譯
Bharatiya
Versus China:
We are currently behind them in Infrastructure and of course Manufacturing Base. But we are playing catch up in Infrastructure.
Why be so down trodden about Samsung setting up a factory here, even if it's the most basic assembly? Do you expect them to invest billions without doing a trial run?
Instead of comparing with China today, see China's trajectory. It took time for China to build the manufacturing base. The growth in the first phases had been slow. And then, once a threshold is passed, it accelerated.
We're in that hard phase now.
與中國(guó)相比：
我們目前在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面確實(shí)落后于他們，當(dāng)然制造業(yè)也落后。但我們正在迎頭趕上。
三星已經(jīng)開(kāi)始在印度建廠，哪怕只是最基本的組裝廠，也沒(méi)必要如此唱衰印度吧？難道你指望外資不試運(yùn)行就立刻投資數(shù)十億美元？
與其與今天的中國(guó)比較，不如看看中國(guó)的發(fā)展軌跡。中國(guó)建立制造業(yè)也不是一蹴而就的。第一階段增長(zhǎng)緩慢。然后，一旦邁過(guò)門(mén)檻，就會(huì)加速增長(zhǎng)。
我們現(xiàn)在正處于這個(gè)艱難的第一階段。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
That video on Why India Is Not China is more blackpilling than an economic analysis. Having problems doesn't mean you aren't going to win—India today has been willing to solve the problems.
The guy presenting the video is misreading current problems to be unsolvable at best and is deliberately dencouncing India's potential at worst.
Point 1: Size of China's manufacturing and Point 2: India neglected manufacturing:
That's why we are playing catch up now and trying to figure out. This is a work in progress. There are several big obstacles to be tackled here and they will be tackled post-election.
“為什么印度不能成為中國(guó)”，這個(gè)視頻與其說(shuō)是經(jīng)濟(jì)分析，不如說(shuō)是刻意貶低。存在問(wèn)題并不意味著你不會(huì)贏——何況當(dāng)下的印度愿意解決問(wèn)題。
制作視頻的人，往好里說(shuō)，是誤認(rèn)為印度當(dāng)前的問(wèn)題無(wú)法解決，往壞里說(shuō)，是故意貶低印度的潛力。
他列舉了十點(diǎn)理由，我們來(lái)逐條分析：
第一點(diǎn):中國(guó)制造業(yè)的規(guī)模龐大。
第二點(diǎn):印度忽視制造業(yè)。
印度現(xiàn)在正在努力追趕建立自己的制造業(yè)。這里有幾個(gè)大的障礙需要解決，這些障礙將在選舉后得到解決。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
The guy presenting the video is misreading current problems to be unsolvable at best and is deliberately dencouncing India's potential at worst.
Point 1: Size of China's manufacturing and Point 2: India neglected manufacturing:
That's why we are playing catch up now and trying to figure out. This is a work in progress. There are several big obstacles to be tackled here and they will be tackled post-election.
“為什么印度不能成為中國(guó)”，這個(gè)視頻與其說(shuō)是經(jīng)濟(jì)分析，不如說(shuō)是刻意貶低。存在問(wèn)題并不意味著你不會(huì)贏——何況當(dāng)下的印度愿意解決問(wèn)題。
制作視頻的人，往好里說(shuō)，是誤認(rèn)為印度當(dāng)前的問(wèn)題無(wú)法解決，往壞里說(shuō)，是故意貶低印度的潛力。
他列舉了十點(diǎn)理由，我們來(lái)逐條分析：
第一點(diǎn):中國(guó)制造業(yè)的規(guī)模龐大。
第二點(diǎn):印度忽視制造業(yè)。
印度現(xiàn)在正在努力追趕建立自己的制造業(yè)。這里有幾個(gè)大的障礙需要解決，這些障礙將在選舉后得到解決。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Point 3: China dominates traditional manufacturing:
Steel, Cement are the examples he gave.
While stating "These are two industries vital for future economic growth."
Everything needs to be taken in context. Here, it is certainly inappropriate. China has gone down the road of overbuilding.
Its constructions are not in response to demand, do not consider sustainability. China builds for the sake of building—to keep the economy going. They see Infrastructure as another engine of economy—far too much for their good.
Now they've put themselves in a position that they CANNOT stop the scale of their buildings. Even though the demand has already diminished, the production has not.
If they really try, tens of millions will be unemployed and big companies will be thrown into chaos. A chain reaction will hit their economy. The real estate housing crisis is only a part of this bigger bubble.
India needs to scale up infrastructure and in doing so, pull up its national steel and cement champions. This is not an indicator for why India is not next China. It's a ridiculous point.
第三點(diǎn):中國(guó)的傳統(tǒng)制造業(yè)非常強(qiáng)勢(shì)。
他以鋼鐵，水泥舉例，說(shuō):“這兩個(gè)行業(yè)對(duì)未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)至關(guān)重要?！?br /> 然而在當(dāng)前的中國(guó)，這個(gè)例子是不合適的。因?yàn)橹袊?guó)已經(jīng)走上了過(guò)度建設(shè)的道路。
它的建設(shè)不符合需求，不考慮可持續(xù)性。中國(guó)為了建設(shè)而建設(shè)——為了保持經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。他們將建造基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施視為拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的引擎——遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了他們的需求。
現(xiàn)在，他們已經(jīng)陷入了建筑規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大無(wú)法停止的境地。盡管需求已經(jīng)減少，但產(chǎn)量并未減少。
如果他們繼續(xù)下去，數(shù)千萬(wàn)人將失業(yè)，大公司將陷入混亂。連鎖反應(yīng)將打擊他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)。房地產(chǎn)危機(jī)只是更大泡沫的一部分。
印度需要擴(kuò)大基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施規(guī)模，并在此過(guò)程中重振本國(guó)鋼鐵和水泥龍頭企業(yè)。但規(guī)模不如中國(guó)并不能說(shuō)明印度不能成為下一個(gè)中國(guó)。這是一個(gè)荒謬的觀點(diǎn)。
Steel, Cement are the examples he gave.
While stating "These are two industries vital for future economic growth."
Everything needs to be taken in context. Here, it is certainly inappropriate. China has gone down the road of overbuilding.
Its constructions are not in response to demand, do not consider sustainability. China builds for the sake of building—to keep the economy going. They see Infrastructure as another engine of economy—far too much for their good.
Now they've put themselves in a position that they CANNOT stop the scale of their buildings. Even though the demand has already diminished, the production has not.
If they really try, tens of millions will be unemployed and big companies will be thrown into chaos. A chain reaction will hit their economy. The real estate housing crisis is only a part of this bigger bubble.
India needs to scale up infrastructure and in doing so, pull up its national steel and cement champions. This is not an indicator for why India is not next China. It's a ridiculous point.
第三點(diǎn):中國(guó)的傳統(tǒng)制造業(yè)非常強(qiáng)勢(shì)。
他以鋼鐵，水泥舉例，說(shuō):“這兩個(gè)行業(yè)對(duì)未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)至關(guān)重要?！?br /> 然而在當(dāng)前的中國(guó)，這個(gè)例子是不合適的。因?yàn)橹袊?guó)已經(jīng)走上了過(guò)度建設(shè)的道路。
它的建設(shè)不符合需求，不考慮可持續(xù)性。中國(guó)為了建設(shè)而建設(shè)——為了保持經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。他們將建造基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施視為拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的引擎——遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了他們的需求。
現(xiàn)在，他們已經(jīng)陷入了建筑規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大無(wú)法停止的境地。盡管需求已經(jīng)減少，但產(chǎn)量并未減少。
如果他們繼續(xù)下去，數(shù)千萬(wàn)人將失業(yè)，大公司將陷入混亂。連鎖反應(yīng)將打擊他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)。房地產(chǎn)危機(jī)只是更大泡沫的一部分。
印度需要擴(kuò)大基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施規(guī)模，并在此過(guò)程中重振本國(guó)鋼鐵和水泥龍頭企業(yè)。但規(guī)模不如中國(guó)并不能說(shuō)明印度不能成為下一個(gè)中國(guó)。這是一個(gè)荒謬的觀點(diǎn)。
Point 4: China's share of global exports
Investments were made post 1990s that continue to bear fruit. China has made the right call and empowered its MSMEs. Hence the situation.
India is taking steps to empower its MSMEs. With the steps currently being taken, it is rational to assume our share of global exports will start rising.
Point 5: The Chinese Ecosystem
Took time to be built. India is in its nascent state of manufacturing. Indian ecosystem will also be built and it will take time, but it will be built faster than Chinese ecosystem, no doubt.
第四點(diǎn):中國(guó)在全球出口中的份額占比高
我承認(rèn)，中國(guó)在20世紀(jì)90年代后進(jìn)行的投資如今獲得了回報(bào)，中國(guó)做出了正確的選擇，扶持中小微企業(yè)，因此有了今天的地位。
而印度正在采取措施扶持其中小微企業(yè)。鑒于印度目前正在采取的措施，我們有理由認(rèn)為，印度在全球出口中所占的份額將開(kāi)始上升。
第5點(diǎn):中國(guó)生態(tài)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈較為全面
印度需要時(shí)間來(lái)打造自己的生態(tài)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈。印度正處于制造業(yè)的起步階段。印度的生態(tài)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈也會(huì)逐步建立起來(lái)，這需要時(shí)間，但毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，它建立的速度將比同時(shí)期的中國(guó)更快。
Investments were made post 1990s that continue to bear fruit. China has made the right call and empowered its MSMEs. Hence the situation.
India is taking steps to empower its MSMEs. With the steps currently being taken, it is rational to assume our share of global exports will start rising.
Point 5: The Chinese Ecosystem
Took time to be built. India is in its nascent state of manufacturing. Indian ecosystem will also be built and it will take time, but it will be built faster than Chinese ecosystem, no doubt.
第四點(diǎn):中國(guó)在全球出口中的份額占比高
我承認(rèn)，中國(guó)在20世紀(jì)90年代后進(jìn)行的投資如今獲得了回報(bào)，中國(guó)做出了正確的選擇，扶持中小微企業(yè)，因此有了今天的地位。
而印度正在采取措施扶持其中小微企業(yè)。鑒于印度目前正在采取的措施，我們有理由認(rèn)為，印度在全球出口中所占的份額將開(kāi)始上升。
第5點(diǎn):中國(guó)生態(tài)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈較為全面
印度需要時(shí)間來(lái)打造自己的生態(tài)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈。印度正處于制造業(yè)的起步階段。印度的生態(tài)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈也會(huì)逐步建立起來(lái)，這需要時(shí)間，但毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，它建立的速度將比同時(shí)期的中國(guó)更快。
India is 10-15 Years Behind China
Of course. We wouldn't be working to catch up with them otherwise.
The youtuber points out the near stagnation of manufacturing as % of GDP. It's a correct observation for the past. But to project future off it is disingenuous without a proper study into why the stagnation even happened.
If economics is as simple as looking at a bunch of numbers and predicting future, economists would all be millionaires.
The stagnation had multiple reasons—most prominent being: lack of Infrastructure, looming banking crisis.
我個(gè)人認(rèn)為印度落后中國(guó)10-15年
這沒(méi)什么好否認(rèn)的，否則我們就不會(huì)努力追趕他們了。
這位油管博主指出，印度制造業(yè)占GDP的比例接近停滯。這是對(duì)過(guò)去的正確觀察。但如果不好好研究為什么會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種停滯，就以此來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)，那就大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)了。
如果經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家只靠一堆數(shù)字就能簡(jiǎn)單預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)，那么每個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都會(huì)成為百萬(wàn)富翁。
印度制造業(yè)停滯有多種原因，其中最突出的原因是：缺乏基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，和亟待解決的銀行業(yè)問(wèn)題。
Of course. We wouldn't be working to catch up with them otherwise.
The youtuber points out the near stagnation of manufacturing as % of GDP. It's a correct observation for the past. But to project future off it is disingenuous without a proper study into why the stagnation even happened.
If economics is as simple as looking at a bunch of numbers and predicting future, economists would all be millionaires.
The stagnation had multiple reasons—most prominent being: lack of Infrastructure, looming banking crisis.
我個(gè)人認(rèn)為印度落后中國(guó)10-15年
這沒(méi)什么好否認(rèn)的，否則我們就不會(huì)努力追趕他們了。
這位油管博主指出，印度制造業(yè)占GDP的比例接近停滯。這是對(duì)過(guò)去的正確觀察。但如果不好好研究為什么會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種停滯，就以此來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)，那就大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)了。
如果經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家只靠一堆數(shù)字就能簡(jiǎn)單預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)，那么每個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都會(huì)成為百萬(wàn)富翁。
印度制造業(yè)停滯有多種原因，其中最突出的原因是：缺乏基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，和亟待解決的銀行業(yè)問(wèn)題。
Point 6: India needs Chinese materials to manufacture
The youtuber is making a correct observation of an event—India imports a lot of stuff to manufacture the final product.
But he's making an incorrect projection. That India will keep doing so.
Local manufacturing for components will pick up eventually. China hasn't started doing 100% local manufacturing from day 1. It still doesn't.
Point 7: India's Infrastructure Problems
The youtuber states India's number 1 problem is Lack of Infrastructure.
That's something many can agree on. That's precisely why he shouldn't make a pessimistic projection because Indian govt is spending more and more on Infra every year. There is visible change all across the country in just 9 years. This will continue and snowball.
第6點(diǎn):印度需要中國(guó)材料來(lái)制造產(chǎn)品
這位博主對(duì)此事的觀察是正確的——印度從中國(guó)進(jìn)口了很多東西來(lái)制造最終產(chǎn)品。
但他的預(yù)測(cè)是錯(cuò)誤的。印度不會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)進(jìn)口中國(guó)材料。印度的本土制造比例最終會(huì)上升。
中國(guó)也不是一開(kāi)始就能制造100%純國(guó)產(chǎn)的商品。直到今天它在一些領(lǐng)域仍然不能做到這一點(diǎn)，
第7點(diǎn):印度的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施問(wèn)題
這位博主表示，印度的頭號(hào)問(wèn)題是缺乏基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。
這一點(diǎn)很多人都同意。但這也正是他不應(yīng)該做出悲觀預(yù)測(cè)的原因，因?yàn)橛《日磕暝诨A(chǔ)設(shè)施上的支出越來(lái)越多。在短短9年的時(shí)間里，印度全國(guó)各地都發(fā)生了明顯的變化。這種情況將繼續(xù)下去，就像滾雪球一樣。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
The youtuber is making a correct observation of an event—India imports a lot of stuff to manufacture the final product.
But he's making an incorrect projection. That India will keep doing so.
Local manufacturing for components will pick up eventually. China hasn't started doing 100% local manufacturing from day 1. It still doesn't.
Point 7: India's Infrastructure Problems
The youtuber states India's number 1 problem is Lack of Infrastructure.
That's something many can agree on. That's precisely why he shouldn't make a pessimistic projection because Indian govt is spending more and more on Infra every year. There is visible change all across the country in just 9 years. This will continue and snowball.
第6點(diǎn):印度需要中國(guó)材料來(lái)制造產(chǎn)品
這位博主對(duì)此事的觀察是正確的——印度從中國(guó)進(jìn)口了很多東西來(lái)制造最終產(chǎn)品。
但他的預(yù)測(cè)是錯(cuò)誤的。印度不會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)進(jìn)口中國(guó)材料。印度的本土制造比例最終會(huì)上升。
中國(guó)也不是一開(kāi)始就能制造100%純國(guó)產(chǎn)的商品。直到今天它在一些領(lǐng)域仍然不能做到這一點(diǎn)，
第7點(diǎn):印度的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施問(wèn)題
這位博主表示，印度的頭號(hào)問(wèn)題是缺乏基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。
這一點(diǎn)很多人都同意。但這也正是他不應(yīng)該做出悲觀預(yù)測(cè)的原因，因?yàn)橛《日磕暝诨A(chǔ)設(shè)施上的支出越來(lái)越多。在短短9年的時(shí)間里，印度全國(guó)各地都發(fā)生了明顯的變化。這種情況將繼續(xù)下去，就像滾雪球一樣。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Note: The youtuber showed a normal road with lots of people, autos in the middle of a city while playing this part. Why? Aren't freight trains, large roads and ports more important? Poverty porn much?
The problems he raised are all ironically things that are already identified and are being improved.
India's express ways are 4,000 km compared to China's 160,000 km.
Again, this is an accurate observation of current state but is a bad, bad predictor of future. The youtuber only taken snaps and knows nothing of trajectory.
India's expressways were barely 1,000 on 2014. By end of 2024, they're going to hit 5,000. 5X in 10 years.
And two more factors to keep in mind:
1. India's land area is nearly 3 times smaller than China's.
2. China doesn't built for the sake of demand, it has long passed that point. It now builds for the sake of economy.
注意:這位博主在視頻中故意插入一段畫(huà)面，展示印度充斥著行人和車(chē)輛的擁擠道路。為什么？是印度的貨運(yùn)列車(chē)、大型公路和港口不需要展示嗎?還是博主想靠展示印度的貧窮畫(huà)面來(lái)吸引討好視頻受眾?
具有諷刺意味的是，他提出的問(wèn)題，都是印度已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)并正在改進(jìn)的問(wèn)題。
他說(shuō)印度的高速公路是4000公里，而中國(guó)的高速公路是16萬(wàn)公里。
這一觀察并沒(méi)有錯(cuò)，但他對(duì)印度未來(lái)的預(yù)測(cè)卻很糟糕。他只知道對(duì)比當(dāng)前數(shù)據(jù)，卻對(duì)未來(lái)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)一無(wú)所知。
2014年，印度的高速公路僅有1000條。到2024年底，印度的高速公路已經(jīng)達(dá)到5000條。10年內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)5倍。
還有兩個(gè)因素需要記住:
1. 印度的土地面積只有中國(guó)的三分之一。
2. 中國(guó)不是為了滿足需求而建設(shè)的，它的建設(shè)早就超過(guò)了需求。中國(guó)現(xiàn)在是為了拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)而建設(shè)。
The problems he raised are all ironically things that are already identified and are being improved.
India's express ways are 4,000 km compared to China's 160,000 km.
Again, this is an accurate observation of current state but is a bad, bad predictor of future. The youtuber only taken snaps and knows nothing of trajectory.
India's expressways were barely 1,000 on 2014. By end of 2024, they're going to hit 5,000. 5X in 10 years.
And two more factors to keep in mind:
1. India's land area is nearly 3 times smaller than China's.
2. China doesn't built for the sake of demand, it has long passed that point. It now builds for the sake of economy.
注意:這位博主在視頻中故意插入一段畫(huà)面，展示印度充斥著行人和車(chē)輛的擁擠道路。為什么？是印度的貨運(yùn)列車(chē)、大型公路和港口不需要展示嗎?還是博主想靠展示印度的貧窮畫(huà)面來(lái)吸引討好視頻受眾?
具有諷刺意味的是，他提出的問(wèn)題，都是印度已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)并正在改進(jìn)的問(wèn)題。
他說(shuō)印度的高速公路是4000公里，而中國(guó)的高速公路是16萬(wàn)公里。
這一觀察并沒(méi)有錯(cuò)，但他對(duì)印度未來(lái)的預(yù)測(cè)卻很糟糕。他只知道對(duì)比當(dāng)前數(shù)據(jù)，卻對(duì)未來(lái)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)一無(wú)所知。
2014年，印度的高速公路僅有1000條。到2024年底，印度的高速公路已經(jīng)達(dá)到5000條。10年內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)5倍。
還有兩個(gè)因素需要記住:
1. 印度的土地面積只有中國(guó)的三分之一。
2. 中國(guó)不是為了滿足需求而建設(shè)的，它的建設(shè)早就超過(guò)了需求。中國(guó)現(xiàn)在是為了拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)而建設(shè)。
Point 8: India's Bueracracy
It is on PMO's agenda to fix out this problem. They have acknowledged this and if the past records say something, they might already have a plan to implement in their third term.
Point 9: India's Labor Issues
Upskilling is a thing. Again, cheap internet basically gives both the govt and private sectors a massive lever in helping upskill the youth of country. Moreover, once the manufacturing does rise, they will get skilled for the jobs.
Point 10: Technology and R&D
Indian govt and people alike acknowledge this problem. GOI has started the baby steps in this direction by establishing National Research Foundation Center.
Also, an important point to be made here: When you don't have manufacturing, you don't have much to research for.
As manufacturing grows, local champions grow, they will invest for their own benefit and an ecosystem will be formed which will help everyone.
第8點(diǎn):印度的官僚主義
這個(gè)問(wèn)題已經(jīng)提上了政府的議程。印度政府已經(jīng)承認(rèn)了這一點(diǎn)，如果從過(guò)去的記錄來(lái)看，他們已經(jīng)有了準(zhǔn)備在第三任期實(shí)施的計(jì)劃。
第9點(diǎn):印度的勞工問(wèn)題
印度勞工需要提高技能。而廉價(jià)的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)教育為政府和私營(yíng)部門(mén)提供了有力手段，幫助國(guó)內(nèi)年輕人提高技能。此外，一旦制造業(yè)崛起，印度勞工就會(huì)掌握工作所需的技能。
第10點(diǎn):技術(shù)和研發(fā)薄弱
印度政府和人民都承認(rèn)這個(gè)問(wèn)題。印度政府通過(guò)建立國(guó)家研究基金會(huì)，在這個(gè)方向上小步邁進(jìn)。
此外，有一點(diǎn)原因很重要:當(dāng)你沒(méi)有制造業(yè)時(shí)，你就無(wú)法投入太多的研究項(xiàng)目。
隨著印度制造業(yè)的發(fā)展，當(dāng)?shù)佚堫^企業(yè)的成長(zhǎng)，他們將為自己的利益進(jìn)行投資，形成一個(gè)有利于所有人的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。
It is on PMO's agenda to fix out this problem. They have acknowledged this and if the past records say something, they might already have a plan to implement in their third term.
Point 9: India's Labor Issues
Upskilling is a thing. Again, cheap internet basically gives both the govt and private sectors a massive lever in helping upskill the youth of country. Moreover, once the manufacturing does rise, they will get skilled for the jobs.
Point 10: Technology and R&D
Indian govt and people alike acknowledge this problem. GOI has started the baby steps in this direction by establishing National Research Foundation Center.
Also, an important point to be made here: When you don't have manufacturing, you don't have much to research for.
As manufacturing grows, local champions grow, they will invest for their own benefit and an ecosystem will be formed which will help everyone.
第8點(diǎn):印度的官僚主義
這個(gè)問(wèn)題已經(jīng)提上了政府的議程。印度政府已經(jīng)承認(rèn)了這一點(diǎn)，如果從過(guò)去的記錄來(lái)看，他們已經(jīng)有了準(zhǔn)備在第三任期實(shí)施的計(jì)劃。
第9點(diǎn):印度的勞工問(wèn)題
印度勞工需要提高技能。而廉價(jià)的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)教育為政府和私營(yíng)部門(mén)提供了有力手段，幫助國(guó)內(nèi)年輕人提高技能。此外，一旦制造業(yè)崛起，印度勞工就會(huì)掌握工作所需的技能。
第10點(diǎn):技術(shù)和研發(fā)薄弱
印度政府和人民都承認(rèn)這個(gè)問(wèn)題。印度政府通過(guò)建立國(guó)家研究基金會(huì)，在這個(gè)方向上小步邁進(jìn)。
此外，有一點(diǎn)原因很重要:當(dāng)你沒(méi)有制造業(yè)時(shí)，你就無(wú)法投入太多的研究項(xiàng)目。
隨著印度制造業(yè)的發(fā)展，當(dāng)?shù)佚堫^企業(yè)的成長(zhǎng)，他們將為自己的利益進(jìn)行投資，形成一個(gè)有利于所有人的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。
Conclusion:
The blackpilling folks can blackpill. The ones without confidences can live without confidence. The ones who already accepted defeat can continue to demean India on all Social Media.
The people who can see the changes happening are optimistic and find even more drive to do better in their own lives.
Bharat has a lot of problems. But it also a lot of solutions to try solve those problems.
It won't happen overnight. We'll stumble on the way. Many policies might fail, but the few that succeed and succeed spectacularly, they'll definite the trajectory and build the future of our civilizational state.
結(jié)論:
悲觀的人可以繼續(xù)悲觀。沒(méi)有信心的人可以繼續(xù)沒(méi)有信心地生活。認(rèn)為印度已經(jīng)失敗的人可以繼續(xù)在所有社交媒體上貶低印度。
能看到變化正在發(fā)生的人則會(huì)感到樂(lè)觀，并在自己的生活中找到變好的更大動(dòng)力。
印度有很多問(wèn)題。但它也有很多解決方案來(lái)解決這些問(wèn)題。
成功不會(huì)一蹴而就。我們會(huì)在前進(jìn)的道路上磕磕絆絆。許多政策可能會(huì)失敗，但少數(shù)的政策會(huì)取得巨大成功，它們將明確我們文明國(guó)家的發(fā)展軌跡和未來(lái)。
The blackpilling folks can blackpill. The ones without confidences can live without confidence. The ones who already accepted defeat can continue to demean India on all Social Media.
The people who can see the changes happening are optimistic and find even more drive to do better in their own lives.
Bharat has a lot of problems. But it also a lot of solutions to try solve those problems.
It won't happen overnight. We'll stumble on the way. Many policies might fail, but the few that succeed and succeed spectacularly, they'll definite the trajectory and build the future of our civilizational state.
結(jié)論:
悲觀的人可以繼續(xù)悲觀。沒(méi)有信心的人可以繼續(xù)沒(méi)有信心地生活。認(rèn)為印度已經(jīng)失敗的人可以繼續(xù)在所有社交媒體上貶低印度。
能看到變化正在發(fā)生的人則會(huì)感到樂(lè)觀，并在自己的生活中找到變好的更大動(dòng)力。
印度有很多問(wèn)題。但它也有很多解決方案來(lái)解決這些問(wèn)題。
成功不會(huì)一蹴而就。我們會(huì)在前進(jìn)的道路上磕磕絆絆。許多政策可能會(huì)失敗，但少數(shù)的政策會(huì)取得巨大成功，它們將明確我們文明國(guó)家的發(fā)展軌跡和未來(lái)。
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That's one of those *** paid "white monkey" who spouts *** propaganda. They have paid off many such "investment influencers" because Chinese coverage has become negative in mainstream business publications.
這個(gè)人是中國(guó)雇傭的“白皮猴子”之一，他的油管頻道全是中國(guó)的宣傳視頻。因?yàn)闅W美主流媒體對(duì)中國(guó)的報(bào)道非常負(fù)面，所以中國(guó)收買(mǎi)了許多這樣的油管博主。
Spot on
Comparing current China with India is not a correct way to make any projections. When china started becoming manufacturing hub it was no where near to developed western powers.
When people say India might replace China, no one is saying we can replace China in 2024. It's 10-15 years in future we are talking about.
And this idiot is comparing over built high speed rail network and expressway, which are mostly Non-productive investments and a huge problem china is facing, calling it a disadvantage India is simply stupid.
說(shuō)的好。
拿現(xiàn)在的中國(guó)和印度進(jìn)行比較，并不能得出正確的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果。當(dāng)中國(guó)開(kāi)始成為制造業(yè)中心時(shí)，它與發(fā)達(dá)的西方大國(guó)相距甚遠(yuǎn)。
當(dāng)人們說(shuō)印度可能取代中國(guó)時(shí)，不是說(shuō)我們可以在2024年取代中國(guó)。我們談?wù)摰氖俏磥?lái)10-15年。
這個(gè)白癡拿中國(guó)過(guò)度修建的高鐵網(wǎng)絡(luò)和高速公路做比較，這些大多是非生產(chǎn)性投資，是中國(guó)未來(lái)要面臨的一個(gè)巨大問(wèn)題，稱其為印度的劣勢(shì)，真是愚蠢。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Westerners are intentionally bi-polar regarding India. They swing from "India has no future, it'll collapse" to "India is the future economic superpower, it'll overtake China", even though India itself has claimed no such thing, and we simply maintain that we will have good growth and a large economy.
The effect is they create a straw man positive prediction for India, which they then disprove by saying "No, we were wrong about India's growth", creating a straw man negative argument against India.
They will not be able to constantly make these negative videos of India's future if they acknowledged that India's goal is to simply grow its economy and improve its peoples lives, while acquiring critical technology.
西方人對(duì)印度采取兩極態(tài)度。他們?cè)?"印度沒(méi)有未來(lái)，它馬上就要崩潰了 "和 "印度是未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)超級(jí)大國(guó)，它將超越中國(guó)"之間來(lái)回?fù)u擺，盡管印度自己并沒(méi)有這樣聲稱，我們只是堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為我們將會(huì)擁有良好的增長(zhǎng)和龐大的經(jīng)濟(jì)。
這樣做的結(jié)果是，他們先為印度創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)夸張的積極預(yù)測(cè)，然后他們又說(shuō) "不，我們對(duì)印度增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)是錯(cuò)的"，然后推翻這個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)，再為印度創(chuàng)造一個(gè)夸張的悲觀預(yù)測(cè)。
如果他們承認(rèn)印度的目標(biāo)僅僅是發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)、改善人民生活，同時(shí)獲取關(guān)鍵技術(shù)，他們就不會(huì)對(duì)印度的未來(lái)做出悲觀預(yù)測(cè)。
That isn't the topic, and sure we don't aim to replace them. But if we look at comparative advantages, china has the upper hand. Our manufacturing output is very low and barely growing significantly, while china's exports of just goods alone is more than our GDP.
這不是重點(diǎn)，當(dāng)然我們的目標(biāo)也不是取代中國(guó)。如果比較雙方優(yōu)勢(shì)，明顯是中國(guó)占了上風(fēng)。我們的制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出很低，而且?guī)缀鯖](méi)有大幅增長(zhǎng)，而中國(guó)僅貨物出口就超過(guò)了我們的 GDP。
Sure. I've just been seeing all these "India is not the next superpower" videos over the past 3 years Not arguing about our manufacturing disadvantages against China.
你說(shuō)得對(duì)，我只是在過(guò)去三年里，不斷看到 "印度不是下一個(gè)超級(jí)大國(guó) "之類的視頻，有感而發(fā)而已。我同意我們?cè)谥圃鞓I(yè)方面對(duì)中國(guó)存在劣勢(shì)。
Forget standing up to China economically, we'll start making Sri Lanka and other neighbors look good.
忘了在經(jīng)濟(jì)上對(duì)抗中國(guó)的想法吧，在我們的襯托下，斯里蘭卡和其他鄰國(guó)都顯得發(fā)展的不錯(cuò)。
Do you think anybody in India cares about that? The Netas and Babus live in a world of their own. Their children are more often well settled in the US and West with fancy Ivy league education.
Look at the situation of Rural schools,I find it hard to differentiate between them and schools of Congo and Somalia.No wonder most Indians drop off and never go to college and remain unskilled and end up in low paying and unproductive jobs.
你覺(jué)得印度普通人會(huì)關(guān)心這個(gè)問(wèn)題嗎?上層權(quán)貴老爺生活在他們自己的世界里。他們的孩子通常在美國(guó)和西方生活，接受名牌大學(xué)常春藤盟校的教育。
看看印度農(nóng)村學(xué)校的狀況，我發(fā)現(xiàn)很難將它們與剛果和索馬里的學(xué)校區(qū)分開(kāi)來(lái)。難怪大多數(shù)印度人輟學(xué)，從未上過(guò)大學(xué)，沒(méi)有勞動(dòng)技能，最終從事低薪和非生產(chǎn)性工作。
Because consumption based GDP has its own pitfalls without sufficient self sufficiency in key areas. When things get anti India mode, GDP will tumble. We need Chinese, Japanese and Korean level high tech and low tech manufacturing economy as part of that GDP growth. Look at our major exports, it doesn't reflect the manufacturing side that well yet. Brands of household name are a sign of strong economies
如果不能在關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域?qū)崿F(xiàn)自給自足，以消費(fèi)為基礎(chǔ)的 GDP 本身就存在隱患。一旦出現(xiàn) "不利于印度的狀況"，印度的GDP 就會(huì)下滑。我們需要中國(guó)、日本和韓國(guó)那樣的高/低技術(shù)制造業(yè)作為拉動(dòng) GDP增長(zhǎng)的引擎?？纯次覀兊闹饕隹诋a(chǎn)品，反映出了印度制造業(yè)方面的糟糕狀況。擁有家喻戶曉的世界品牌是國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁的標(biāo)志
lol ITA-1 killed any hope of domestic PCs making it big because of cheap imports, they started and continue to centralize PC manufacturing in China, India was not export competitive back then, it isn't export competitive today in spite of Tim Apple going all-in.
哈哈，由于世貿(mào)組織的ITA-1《信息技術(shù)協(xié)定》，廉價(jià)的進(jìn)口商品沖擊國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，扼殺了印度國(guó)產(chǎn)電腦做大的希望，印度以前沒(méi)有出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，國(guó)際巨頭把電腦產(chǎn)業(yè)集中在中國(guó)，盡管蘋(píng)果已經(jīng)全力擴(kuò)大在印度的生產(chǎn)規(guī)模，但如今的印度沒(méi)有出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。
another_armchair said:
Q. So why did they choose China and not some other country?
A. They chose China because（）
填空題
問(wèn):那他們?yōu)槭裁催x擇中國(guó)，而不是其他國(guó)家?
答:他們選擇中國(guó)是因?yàn)椋ǎ?/b>
Literally the best country to do any manufacturing, cheap labour because there are like 1 billion of them and eventual large consumer market, no trade unxs bullshittery, bent over Govt( at the time ) willing to do anything and everything to attract manufacturing, said bent over Govt also has 100% control of the country and doesn't depend on 5 year election cycles on national or state levels, Courts are also Govt controlled unlike here, which means they can build world class infra for everything, I also heard that even in the 80s their vocational training game was much better than ours, so good supply of technicians, workers etc was available from the get-go
This is the "Chinese efficiency" the goras mastrubate about.
Baki ka we have fuck all, you have worker unx chimpouts, you have random MyStEriOuS fires happening at factories, you have meme infrastructure, rail, road, ports, electricity, water, waste management( where do all the effluents from PCB manufacturing go? in your lakes and rivers ofc, directly dumped ).
因?yàn)橹袊?guó)是世界上最適合從事制造業(yè)的國(guó)家，勞動(dòng)力便宜，因?yàn)橛?10 億左右的勞動(dòng)力和龐大的消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)，沒(méi)有工會(huì)，政府（當(dāng)時(shí)）愿意做任何事情來(lái)吸引企業(yè)、 我還聽(tīng)說(shuō)，即使在上世紀(jì) 80 年代，他們的職業(yè)培訓(xùn)也比我們強(qiáng)得多，因此從一開(kāi)始就能提供充足的技術(shù)人員和工人等。
這就是西方津津樂(lè)道的 "中國(guó)效率"。
而我們什么都沒(méi)有，我們的工會(huì)會(huì)提各種條件，我們的工廠經(jīng)常發(fā)生"神秘 "火災(zāi)，我們的 基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、鐵路、公路、港口、電力、水、廢物管理都躺在備忘錄中。（知道PCB（電路板）企業(yè)生產(chǎn)的廢水排去了哪里嗎？當(dāng)然是直接排在了湖泊和河流里。）
I really feel india is the wild card here. The faster india gets prosperous and a manufacturing center, the more the west can hammer Chinis. So, it is a 3 way game: the west-India-china with all others playing these big 3 markets. If india becomes prosperous rapidly, China is going to have a very tough time. Only by 2030 we will know.
我真的覺(jué)得印度是博弈的關(guān)鍵角色。印度越快繁榮并成為制造業(yè)中心，西方就越能打擊中國(guó)。因此，這是一場(chǎng)三方博弈：西方-印度-中國(guó)，所有其他國(guó)家與這三大塊市場(chǎng)博弈。如果印度迅速繁榮起來(lái)，中國(guó)的日子就不好過(guò)了。到 2030 年我們就能知道結(jié)果了。
India has not even begun its manufacturing journey. Forget China, we seem to be installing fewer industrial robots than Singapore.
印度的制造業(yè)之旅甚至還沒(méi)有開(kāi)始。
忘了中國(guó)吧，我們安裝的工業(yè)機(jī)器人似乎比新加坡還少。
This is the thing people fail to understand, without improving primary education, India will always remain a laggard and a backbencher country.
If an 18-year-old cannot do class -3 level math and cannot determine things as simple as time or read a simple sentence correctly,then there is something very wrong with the country.
Most of these rural children will never go to college, probably drop off even before completing class 10, and then end up becoming casual laborers and a huge burden on the country's fiscal resources.
And Instead of a demographic dividend,we might end up with a massive demographic nightmare.
這是人們無(wú)法理解的，如果不改善初等教育，印度將永遠(yuǎn)是一個(gè)落后國(guó)家。
如果一個(gè) 18 歲的孩子連 3 年級(jí)的數(shù)學(xué)都不會(huì)做，連報(bào)時(shí)間這么簡(jiǎn)單的事情都說(shuō)不對(duì)，也不能正確閱讀一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的句子，那么這個(gè)國(guó)家絕對(duì)出大問(wèn)題了。
印度農(nóng)村孩子中的大多數(shù)永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法上大學(xué)，甚至可能在 10 年級(jí)畢業(yè)前就輟學(xué)，最終淪為臨時(shí)工，成為國(guó)家財(cái)政資源的巨大負(fù)擔(dān)。
這與人口紅利背道而馳的，帶給印度的，可能是一場(chǎng)巨大的人口噩夢(mèng)。
It will take three to four decades to fix this issue and that too Government has to give its all.
Does not look bright.
解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題需要三、四十年的時(shí)間，政府必須全力以赴。
情況看起來(lái)并不樂(lè)觀。
And what has this government done in 10 years to start fixing this? absolutely nothing. Government schools are as broken as they were decades back with shoddy infrastructure. Go and compare the quality and infrastructure of government schools in China and with us. You will see which country actually cares about its youth. Here is a interesting thought. Rural china had a similar issue 20 years back. Rural schools barely taught stuff and many could not spell their own names. They had a long campaign to shut down rural schools and consolidate students in larger schools in towns where they can standardise quality better. It seemed to have some initial issues but this is something India needs to do in rural areas/ Most village schools in India are of garbage quality and people are increasingly sending their kids to private/church run schools.
在過(guò)去的10年里，印度政府做了什么來(lái)解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題?絕對(duì)沒(méi)有。公立學(xué)校和幾十年前一樣破舊不堪，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施質(zhì)量低劣。去比較一下中國(guó)和我們的公立學(xué)校的質(zhì)量和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。
你會(huì)看到哪個(gè)國(guó)家真正關(guān)心它的年輕人。20年前，中國(guó)農(nóng)村也有類似的問(wèn)題。農(nóng)村學(xué)校幾乎不教?hào)|西，許多人連自己的名字都不會(huì)拼。他們做了長(zhǎng)期工作，關(guān)閉農(nóng)村學(xué)校，并將學(xué)生整合到城鎮(zhèn)的大型學(xué)校，這樣他們可以更好地標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化教學(xué)。雖然其中也存在一些問(wèn)題，但這正是印度需要在農(nóng)村地區(qū)做的事情。印度大多數(shù)鄉(xiāng)村學(xué)校的質(zhì)量都很差，越來(lái)越多的人把孩子送到私立或教會(huì)學(xué)校。