There’s something weird happening with the economy. On a personal level, most Americans say they’re doing pretty well right now. And according to the data, that’s true. Wages have gone up faster than inflation. Unemployment is low, the stock market is generally up so far this year, and people are buying more stuff.

現(xiàn)在的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況有些奇怪。在個(gè)人層面上，大多數(shù)美國(guó)人說(shuō)他們現(xiàn)在做得很好。根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)，這是真的。工資的增長(zhǎng)快于通貨膨脹。失業(yè)率很低，今年到目前為止股市普遍上漲，人們購(gòu)買(mǎi)更多的東西。

And yet in surveys, people keep saying the economy is bad. A recent Harris poll for The Guardian found that around half of Americans think the S. & P. 500 is down this year, and that unemployment is at a 50-year high. Fifty-six percent think we’re in a recession.

然而在調(diào)查中，人們一直說(shuō)經(jīng)濟(jì)很糟糕。哈里斯最近為《衛(wèi)報(bào)》進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)民意調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，大約一半的美國(guó)人認(rèn)為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(s&p 500)今年會(huì)下跌，失業(yè)率處于50年來(lái)的最高水平。56%的人認(rèn)為我們正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之中。

There are many theories about why this gap exists. Maybe political polarization is warping how people see the economy or it’s a failure of President Biden’s messaging, or there’s just something uniquely painful about inflation. And while there’s truth in all of these, it felt like a piece of the story was missing.

關(guān)于為什么會(huì)有這種差距，有很多理論。也許政治兩極分化正在扭曲人們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的看法，或者是拜登總統(tǒng)的信息傳遞失敗，或者只是通貨膨脹帶來(lái)了一些獨(dú)特的痛苦。雖然所有這些都是真實(shí)的，但感覺(jué)好像缺少了一部分故事。

And for me, that missing piece was an article I read right before the pandemic. An Atlantic story from February 2020 called “The Great Affordability Crisis Breaking America .” It described how some of Americans’ biggest-ticket expenses — housing, health care, higher education and child care — which were already pricey, had been getting steadily pricier for decades.

對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)，那缺失的部分是我在大流行之前讀到的一篇文章。2020年2月的一個(gè)大西洋故事，名為“打破美國(guó)的巨大負(fù)擔(dān)能力危機(jī)”，它描述了美國(guó)人的一些最大的費(fèi)用——住房，醫(yī)療保健，高等教育和兒童保育——已經(jīng)非常昂貴，幾十年來(lái)一直在穩(wěn)步上漲。

At the time, prices weren’t the big topic in the economy; the focus was more on jobs and wages. So it was easier for this trend to slip notice, like a frog boiling in water, quietly, putting more and more strain on American budgets. But today, after years of high inflation, prices are the biggest topic in the economy. And I think that explains the anger people feel: They’re noticing the price of things all the time, and getting hammered with the reality of how expensive these things have become.

當(dāng)時(shí)，價(jià)格并不是經(jīng)濟(jì)中的大話(huà)題，人們更多地關(guān)注就業(yè)和工資。因此，這種趨勢(shì)更容易被忽視，就像一只在水中沸騰的青蛙，悄悄地給美國(guó)預(yù)算帶來(lái)越來(lái)越大的壓力。但如今，在經(jīng)歷了多年的高通脹之后，價(jià)格是經(jīng)濟(jì)中最大的話(huà)題。我認(rèn)為這解釋了人們的憤怒：他們一直在注意東西的價(jià)格，并被這些東西變得多么昂貴的現(xiàn)實(shí)所打擊。

The author of that Atlantic piece is Annie Lowrey. She’s an economics reporter,, and also my wife. In this conversation, we discuss how the affordability crisis has collided with our post-pandemic inflationary world, the forces that shape our economic perceptions, why people keep spending as if prices aren’t a strain and what this might mean for the presidential election.

《大西洋月刊》的作者是安妮·勞瑞。她是一名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)記者，也是我的妻子，在這次談話(huà)中，我們討論了負(fù)擔(dān)能力危機(jī)如何與我們的后流行性通貨膨脹世界發(fā)生沖突，塑造我們經(jīng)濟(jì)觀念的力量，為什么人們繼續(xù)消費(fèi)，好像價(jià)格不是一種壓力，以及這對(duì)總統(tǒng)選舉可能意味著什么。