Musk's fantasy: In the future, thousands of human starship fleets will depart from the Earth and head to Mars. As costs drop, even ordinary people will have the opportunity to work on Mars, and eventually build a self-sufficient Mars city with a population of one million. ; In the eyes of scientists, "Compared with making Mars habitable, dealing with climate change on Earth is a piece of cake. We should not regard it (colonizing Mars) as a long-term goal at all."

馬斯克的狂想：未來數(shù)以千計(jì)的人類星艦艦隊(duì)將從地球出發(fā)，前往火星，隨著成本下降，甚至普通人都有機(jī)會去火星工作，最終建設(shè)出一個百萬人口自給自足的火星城；而在科學(xué)家眼中，“與讓火星變得宜居相比，應(yīng)對地球上的氣候變化才是輕而易舉的事。我們根本不應(yīng)該把它（殖民火星）作為一個長期目標(biāo)?！?/b>

To make humans a multi-planetary species, SpaceX will send 1 million people and millions of tons of materials to Mars in the next 20 years to build a Martian city and even modify the environment of Mars to make it habitable in the future. This is not science fiction, but something Elon Musk is once again preaching about.

讓人類成為多行星物種，SpaceX未來20年要送100萬人和數(shù)百萬噸物資去火星，以建立一座火星城市，乃至未來對火星進(jìn)行環(huán)境改造，使其變得宜居。這不是在寫科幻小說，而是埃隆·馬斯克再次對外宣揚(yáng)要做的事。

Since Musk publicly proposed in 2007 that he wanted to lead humans to colonize Mars, this "fantasy" has been controversial and topical. On the one hand, he is enthusiastically pursued by aerospace technology fans around the world, admiring the series of achievements of the space exploration technology company Space Starship, the largest rocket in the world, is exciting enough to make the public believe in its Mars plan.

從2007年馬斯克公開提出想要帶領(lǐng)人類殖民火星開始，這個“狂想”就不缺爭議和話題性。一邊是全球航天科技迷的狂熱追捧，欽佩于其創(chuàng)辦的太空探索技術(shù)公司Space X在商業(yè)航天領(lǐng)域所取得的一系列成就，包括火箭回收、獵鷹重型、Starlix、龍飛船以及目前在測試的世界上最大的火箭Starship，每一項(xiàng)都足夠振奮人心，讓大眾對其火星計(jì)劃也變得愈發(fā)相信。

On the other side, there are doubts and warnings from astronomers. Although Space "This is a stupid and ridiculous idea."
——From a scientific point of view, compared with rocket technology, the problems faced by the Mars colonization plan are much more complex.

另一邊卻是來自天文學(xué)家的質(zhì)疑和警告，雖然Space X擁有值得被肯定的火箭技術(shù)，但殖民火星這種“狂想”根本就是一種“危險(xiǎn)的幻覺”，從科學(xué)角度來看并不現(xiàn)實(shí)，“這是一個愚蠢而荒謬的想法”。
——從科學(xué)角度看，相對于火箭技術(shù)，火星殖民計(jì)劃面臨的問題要復(fù)雜得多。

In his latest speech at Starbase on April 7, Musk once again shared SpaceX's path and plan for Mars colonization. The whole process was sometimes sensational and sometimes presented with data, looking forward to mankind's future ambitions to start a multi-planetary civilization era—— Accompanied by bursts of cheers and applause from the audience.

4月7日，馬斯克在星艦基地（Starbase）發(fā)表的最新演講中，再次分享了SpaceX火星殖民的路徑和計(jì)劃，全程時而煽情時而擺數(shù)據(jù)，展望人類開啟多行星文明紀(jì)元的未來宏圖——伴隨著臺下陣陣歡呼和掌聲。

The Mars colonization plan will rely on the most powerful rocket Starship developed by SpaceX. The original idea of ??Starship can be traced back to 2005. At that time, shortly after SpaceX was founded, Musk ambitiously proposed to build a super-heavy rocket called "BFR". In the subsequent development process of the company, Musk gradually completed the development and put into use of equipment such as Raptor rocket engine, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy rocket and Manned Dragon spacecraft. The engines became stronger and stronger, and the rockets became more and more manufactured. The bigger it gets, the smoother the manned business will run.

火星殖民計(jì)劃要靠SpaceX研發(fā)的最強(qiáng)火箭星艦（Starship）來完成。星艦最初的設(shè)想可追溯到2005年，彼時，SpaceX剛剛成立不久，馬斯克就雄心勃勃地提出要建造一種超重型火箭，名為“BFR”。在之后的公司發(fā)展進(jìn)程中，馬斯克一步步完成了對猛禽火箭發(fā)動機(jī)、獵鷹9號、獵鷹重型火箭以及載人龍飛船等設(shè)備的研發(fā)和投入使用，發(fā)動機(jī)越來越強(qiáng)，火箭越造越大，載人業(yè)務(wù)也越跑越順。

Starting in 2023, the starship will finally enter the overall comprehensive flight test stage. This behemoth has a diameter of 9 meters and an overall height of 121 meters. The first-stage booster is equipped with 33 Raptor engines, which can generate about 7,755 tons of thrust. The second-stage starship itself is equipped with 6 Raptor engines and is fully reusable. The "Starship" low-Earth orbit carrying capacity is up to 150 tons, and the payload is up to more than 250 tons without considering recovery.

從2023年開始，星艦終于邁進(jìn)整體綜合飛行測試階段。這個直徑9米，總體高度達(dá)121米的龐然大物，一級助推器安裝有33臺猛禽發(fā)動機(jī)，能夠產(chǎn)生約7755噸的推力，二級星艦本身安裝有6臺猛禽發(fā)動機(jī)，可完全重復(fù)使用的“星艦”近地軌道運(yùn)載能力高達(dá)150噸，在不考慮回收的情況下，有效載荷高達(dá)250噸以上。
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On April 20, 2023, November 18, 2023, and March 14, 2024, SpaceX broadcast live globally the three trans-atmospheric orbital flight tests of the starship. The first two explosions occurred during the lift-off stage. Either the multi-engine failed and lost contact, or the rocket exploded after thermal separation. In the third flight test, the starship finally successfully entered the predetermined orbital altitude, and then crashed during the return to Earth stage. But in Musk's view, these explosions are not entirely a setback for SpaceX, but bring them closer to the edge of success. The starship's flight test performance is getting better and better each time, and it seems that it is not far away from being actually put into use.

2023年4月20日、2023年11月18日、2024年3月14日，SpaceX全球直播了星艦的三次跨大氣層軌道飛行測試。前兩次均在升空飛行階段發(fā)生爆炸，要么是多聯(lián)發(fā)動機(jī)出現(xiàn)故障失聯(lián)，要么是火箭熱分離后發(fā)生爆炸。第三次飛行測試中星艦終于成功進(jìn)入預(yù)定軌道高度，后在返回地球階段墜毀。但在馬斯克看來，這些爆炸對于SpaceX來說并不完全是挫敗，而是讓他們更接近了成功的邊緣，星艦的飛行測試表現(xiàn)一次比一次好，距離實(shí)際投入使用似乎并不遙遠(yuǎn)了。

It seems that the practical experience accumulated by SpaceX has strengthened Musk's confidence in colonizing Mars. As of April 2024, Space It has successfully launched 50 astronauts into Earth orbit and 46 people into the International Space Station; the Starlix project has launched more than 6,000 satellites in orbit, providing space-based network services to 2.7 million users.

看起來，SpaceX積累的實(shí)戰(zhàn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)讓馬斯克堅(jiān)定了殖民火星的信心。截至2024年4月，Space X的成績放眼全球商業(yè)航天是獨(dú)一份：327次獵鷹火箭發(fā)射，291次成功回收著陸，261次的重復(fù)發(fā)射利用；載人龍飛船執(zhí)行了45 次發(fā)射任務(wù)，成功將50名航天員送入地球軌道，把46人送進(jìn)國際空間站；星鏈計(jì)劃（Starlix）發(fā)射了超6000顆衛(wèi)星在軌運(yùn)行，為270萬用戶提供天基網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)。
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Musk revealed in his latest speech that SpaceX is expected to undertake about 90% of the world's Earth-to-orbit mass launch missions in 2024, and China will undertake about 6% of the launch missions, while the rest of the world's "sectors" combined only account for 4%.

馬斯克在最新的演講中透露，2024年SpaceX預(yù)計(jì)將承擔(dān)起全球大約90%的地球至軌道質(zhì)量發(fā)射任務(wù)，中國將承擔(dān)約6%的發(fā)射任務(wù)，而世界其他“部門”的總和僅占4%。
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The Starship will continue to improve after successful testing. It is expected that by the third generation, the total thrust of the rocket will reach 10,000 tons, the earth orbit carrying capacity will exceed 200 tons, and it can be fully reused.

星艦在測試成功后會繼續(xù)改進(jìn)，預(yù)計(jì)到第3代，火箭的總推力將達(dá)到10000噸，地球軌道運(yùn)載能力將超過200噸且能完全重復(fù)使用。

On this basis, Musk began to imagine his Mars plan.

在此基礎(chǔ)上，馬斯克開始暢想他的火星計(jì)劃。

Mars missions have a launch window every 26 months (the Earth and Mars are relatively close, and rocket fuel consumption is minimal). Musk made some rough calculations. If the starship launches 10 times a day and carries 200 tons each time, it can transport one million tons of materials to low-Earth orbit and 250,000 tons of materials to Mars between every two Mars launch windows. , these materials will ensure that the first humans can mine, build and plant on Mars, and ultimately achieve self-sufficiency. In addition, there are "refueling version" starships specially operated in orbit and facilities for preparing propellant locally on Mars to ensure round-trip fuel supply for the journey to Mars.

火星任務(wù)每26個月有一次發(fā)射窗口期（地球和火星較為接近，火箭燃料消耗最少）。馬斯克粗算了一下，如果星艦每天發(fā)射10次、每次運(yùn)載200噸，每兩次火星發(fā)射窗口期之間能向近地軌道運(yùn)送百萬噸級的物資，向火星輸送25萬噸物資，這些物資將確保第一批人類能夠在火星上進(jìn)行開采、建設(shè)和種植，最終實(shí)現(xiàn)自給自足。此外，還有專門在軌運(yùn)行的“加油版”星艦以及在火星本地制備推進(jìn)劑的設(shè)施，保障火星之旅往返燃料補(bǔ)給。
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Musk looked forward to the next 20 years, describing the spectacular scene of "thousands of ships launching together", saying that starships are the key to realizing human multi-planetary survival and preserving the light of human consciousness. Thousands of human starship fleets will set off from the earth. , go to Mars. As the cost drops, even ordinary people will have the opportunity to go to Mars to work. A large number of construction work such as large-scale power generation, mineral mining, water ice mining, propellant manufacturing, long-term life support, etc. will start the human entrepreneurial journey to Mars. , and eventually build a self-sufficient Mars city with a population of one million.

馬斯克展望未來20年，描述其“千艦齊發(fā)”的壯觀場景，稱星艦就是實(shí)現(xiàn)人類多行星生存和保存人類意識之光的關(guān)鍵，數(shù)以千計(jì)的人類星艦艦隊(duì)將從地球出發(fā)，前往火星，隨著成本下降，甚至普通人都有機(jī)會去火星工作，諸如大規(guī)模發(fā)電、礦物開采、水冰開采、推進(jìn)劑制造、長期生命支持等大量建設(shè)工作，會開啟人類火星創(chuàng)業(yè)之旅，最終建設(shè)出一個百萬人口自給自足的火星城。

Recently, British astrophysicist Martin Rees, who holds the lofty title of "Astronomer Royal", called Musk's Mars plan "unrealistic" in an interview.

近期，享有“皇家天文學(xué)家”崇高頭銜的英國天體物理學(xué)家馬丁·里斯（Martin Rees）就在采訪中稱馬斯克的火星計(jì)劃“不現(xiàn)實(shí)”。

Martin Rees is an authoritative expert on quasars. He has received honorary doctorates from 19 universities and has been elected as a fellow of several scientific societies and academicians. He has made many important contributions to the origin of the cosmic microwave background radiation and has authored 500 books. Several scientific papers.

馬丁·里斯是研究類星體的權(quán)威專家，曾獲得19所大學(xué)的榮譽(yù)博士頭銜，獲選多個科學(xué)學(xué)會的會士和學(xué)院院士，對宇宙微波背景輻射的起源作出了很多重要貢獻(xiàn)，著有500多篇科學(xué)論文。

In his opinion, Musk is an "extraordinary person" with a "pretty strange personality", but he mentioned that "compared with making Mars habitable, dealing with climate change on Earth is a piece of cake." So I don't think we should consider it (colonizing Mars) as a long-term goal at all."

在他看來，馬斯克是一個“非凡的人物”，有著“相當(dāng)奇怪的個性”， 但他提到“與讓火星變得宜居相比，應(yīng)對地球上的氣候變化才是輕而易舉的事。所以我認(rèn)為我們根本不應(yīng)該把它（殖民火星）作為一個長期目標(biāo)?！?/b>

There may be some human explorers on Mars, just as scientific researchers live in Antarctica, but the idea of ??mass immigration to Mars to escape problems on Earth, adopted by Musk and some other space enthusiasts, Rees calls "a dangerous fantasy."

火星上可能會有一些人類探索者，就像科研人員生活在南極一樣，但馬斯克和其他一些太空愛好者所采用的大規(guī)模火星移民以逃避地球問題的想法，里斯認(rèn)為這是“危險(xiǎn)的幻想”。

First, our human bodies are currently unable to withstand long-term space travel due to harmful factors such as low gravity and cosmic radiation. A recent study published in the authoritative journal Cell lists in cold, scientific detail the many ways the space environment can harm the body, including DNA mutations, increased risk of cancer, and damage to the immune system.

一來，由于低重力和宇宙輻射等有害因素，我們?nèi)祟惖纳眢w目前無法承受長期的太空旅行。發(fā)表在權(quán)威雜志《細(xì)胞》上的一項(xiàng)新近研究就以冷酷、科學(xué)的細(xì)節(jié)列出了太空環(huán)境對身體造成危害的多種方式，包括DNA突變、提升患癌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及損害免疫系統(tǒng)等。

It would take more than 200 days to reach Mars from the Earth at the fastest speed of human space navigation, regardless of the time it takes to land on Mars and build a Mars base. With insufficient relevant medical and health equipment, the potential risks can be imagined, and if this interstellar journey cannot be shortened significantly, astronauts will only feel depressed after living in a dim and closed space for a long time and have a psychological fear of being far away from the earth. It's enough to drive you crazy.

而從地球抵達(dá)火星，以人類目前的宇宙航行速度最快也得200多天，且不論到火星之后登陸建設(shè)火星基地的時間。在相關(guān)醫(yī)療和衛(wèi)生設(shè)備不充分的情況下，潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可想而知，且這趟星際旅途如果不能大幅縮短，光是太空人長期生活在昏暗封閉空間中的壓抑感和遠(yuǎn)離地球的心理恐懼感就足以令人抓狂。

Rees proposed that the government must be "very safety-conscious" compared to private aerospace companies. He suggested that remote-controlled robots undertake most of the Mars exploration missions and hoist heavy building structures in space. It is more appropriate to build a space station for long-term research on Mars. way.

里斯提議，相對于私營航天企業(yè)，政府必須“非常有安全意識”，他更多建議遙控機(jī)器人承擔(dān)大部分火星探索任務(wù)，并在太空中吊裝重型建筑結(jié)構(gòu)，建設(shè)用于長期研究火星的空間站才是正途。
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Secondly, we should first focus our resources and energy on solving the problems we have caused on the earth before disturbing another planet. After all, the earth is now the cradle of human life.

二來，我們應(yīng)該先集中資源和精力解決自己在地球上造成的問題，然后再去擾亂另一個星球，畢竟，地球當(dāng)下才是人類的生命搖籃。

Outside of NASA, on May 15, 2021, during China's Tianwen-1 Mars exploration mission, the Zhurong rover successfully landed on Mars, making China the second country to successfully operate a Mars rover on Mars.

NASA之外，2021年5月15日，在中國天問一號火星探測任務(wù)中，祝融號火星車成功登陸火星，中國成為第二個成功在火星上運(yùn)行火星探測器的國家。

Judging from the Mars exploration plans disclosed by major space agencies, 2030 may be expected to open a new chapter for manned Mars missions. However, the plans of these national teams do not sound as exaggerated and radical as Musk described. They are all proceeding steadily. Advance step by step.

從各大航天機(jī)構(gòu)公開的火星探測計(jì)劃來看，2030年或有望開啟載人火星任務(wù)的新篇章，不過這些國家隊(duì)的規(guī)劃聽上去都不及馬斯克描述的那樣夸張和激進(jìn)，都是在穩(wěn)扎穩(wěn)打中循序推進(jìn)。

We don't know if the vision of colonizing Mars with a million people will be realized, but it is certainly a matter of time before humans set foot on Mars.

百萬人口殖民火星的愿景不知道會不會實(shí)現(xiàn)，但人類踏足火星，可以肯定是早晚的事。