The United States and China are locked in a new race, in space and on Earth, over a fundamental resource: time itself.

美國和中國正在太空和地球上展開新的競賽，以爭奪一種根本資源：時(shí)間

And the United States is losing.

而美國正在這場競爭中落敗。

Global positioning satellites serve as clocks in the sky, and their signals have become fundamental to the global economy — as essential for telecommunications, 911 services and financial exchanges as they are for drivers and lost pedestrians.

提供全球定位服務(wù)的衛(wèi)星像是太空中的時(shí)鐘，它們發(fā)出的信號(hào)已成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)，對(duì)電信、緊急救難電話服務(wù)和金融交易必不可少，對(duì)于開車的司機(jī)和迷路的行人也是如此。
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But those services are increasingly vulnerable as space is rapidly militarized and satellite signals are attacked on Earth.

但隨著太空迅速軍事化，衛(wèi)星信號(hào)在地球上受侵襲，衛(wèi)星定位服務(wù)正在變得越來越易受攻擊。

Yet, unlike China, the United States does not have a Plan B for civilians should those signals get knocked out in space or on land.

但如果現(xiàn)有的衛(wèi)星信號(hào)在太空或陸地上被摧毀的話，與中國不同，美國沒有可供平民使用的衛(wèi)星定位替代方案。

The risks may seem as remote as science fiction. But just last month, the United States said that Russia may deploy a nuclear weapon into space, refocusing attention on satellites’ vulnerability. And John E. Hyten, an Air Force general who also served as vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and who is now retired, once called some satellites “big, fat, juicy targets.”

這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也許聽起來像科幻小說一樣遙遠(yuǎn)。但美國政府已在上個(gè)月表示，俄羅斯可能在太空部署核武器，將人們的注意力再次轉(zhuǎn)向衛(wèi)星的脆弱性上。曾任美國參謀長聯(lián)席會(huì)議副主席、現(xiàn)已退役的空軍上將約翰·海滕曾把一些衛(wèi)星稱為“又大、又肥、汁又多的目標(biāo)”。

Tangible threats have been growing for years.

多年來，對(duì)衛(wèi)星的切實(shí)威脅一直在增長。

Russia, China, India and the United States have tested antisatellite missiles, and several major world powers have developed technology meant to disrupt signals in space. One Chinese satellite has a robotic arm that could destroy or move other satellites.

俄羅斯、中國、印度和美國都試驗(yàn)了反衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)彈，世界幾個(gè)主要大國都已發(fā)展出旨在干擾太空信號(hào)的技術(shù)。中國的一顆衛(wèi)星有一個(gè)可能摧毀或移動(dòng)其他衛(wèi)星的機(jī)械臂。

Other attacks are occurring on Earth. Russian hackers targeted a satellite system’s ground infrastructure in Ukraine, cutting off internet at the start of the war there. Attacks like jamming, which drowns out satellite signals, and spoofing, which sends misleading data, are increasing, diverting flights and confounding pilots far from battlefields.

地球上正在發(fā)生其他侵襲。俄羅斯黑客曾把一個(gè)衛(wèi)星系統(tǒng)在烏克蘭地面的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施作為打擊目標(biāo)，在俄烏戰(zhàn)爭爆發(fā)時(shí)切斷了烏克蘭的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)。用干擾信號(hào)淹沒衛(wèi)星信號(hào)，假冒衛(wèi)星發(fā)送信號(hào)等攻擊正在增多，導(dǎo)致航班改道，使遠(yuǎn)離戰(zhàn)場的飛行員困惑。

If the world were to lose its connection to those satellites, the economic losses would amount to billions of dollars a day.

如果世界失去與定位衛(wèi)星的連接，每天的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失會(huì)高達(dá)數(shù)十億美元。

Despite recognizing the risks, the United States is years from having a reliable alternative source for time and navigation for civilian use if GPS signals are out or interrupted, documents show and experts say. The Transportation Department, which leads civilian projects for timing and navigation, disputed this, but did not provide answers to follow-up questions.

盡管意識(shí)到了這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但據(jù)文件顯示和專家的說法，如果GPS信號(hào)消失或受到干擾的話，美國距離擁有一個(gè)可靠的民用時(shí)間源和導(dǎo)航系統(tǒng)替代方案還有數(shù)年時(shí)間。雖然負(fù)責(zé)民用授時(shí)和導(dǎo)航項(xiàng)目的美國交通部對(duì)此表示異議，但沒有回答記者提出的后續(xù)問題。

A 2010 plan by the Obama administration, which experts had hoped would create a backup to satellites, never took off. A decade later, President Donald J. Trump issued an executive order that said that the disruption or manipulation of satellite signals posed a threat to national security. But he did not suggest an alternative or propose funding to protect infrastructure.

奧巴馬政府曾在2010年提出了一項(xiàng)計(jì)劃，專家們?cè)Ｍ撚?jì)劃會(huì)建立一個(gè)衛(wèi)星備份系統(tǒng)，但計(jì)劃從未實(shí)施。十年后，前總統(tǒng)特朗普在他發(fā)布的一項(xiàng)行政命令中說，干擾或操縱衛(wèi)星信號(hào)對(duì)國家安全構(gòu)成威脅。但他沒有提出替代方案，也沒有為保護(hù)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施提供資金。

The Biden administration is soliciting bids from private companies, hoping they will offer technical solutions. But it could take years for those technologies to be widely adopted.

拜登政府正在向私營公司招標(biāo)，希望它們能提出技術(shù)解決方案。但廣泛采用這些技術(shù)可能需要數(shù)年時(shí)間。

Where the United States is lagging, China is moving ahead, erecting what it says will be the largest, most advanced and most precise timing system in the world.

在美國落后的地方，中國正在取得進(jìn)展，建立其所謂世界上最大、最先進(jìn)、最精確的授時(shí)系統(tǒng)。

It is building hundreds of timing stations on land and laying 12,000 miles of fiber-optic cables underground, according to planning documents, state media and academic papers. That infrastructure can provide time and navigation services without relying on signals from Beidou, China’s alternative to GPS. It also plans to launch more satellites as backup sources of signals.

據(jù)規(guī)劃文件、官媒報(bào)道和學(xué)術(shù)論文，中國正在陸地上建設(shè)數(shù)百個(gè)授時(shí)站，在地下鋪設(shè)兩萬公里的光纜。這個(gè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施能提供授時(shí)和導(dǎo)航服務(wù)，不需依賴北斗衛(wèi)星系統(tǒng)，后者是中國替代GPS的系統(tǒng)。中國還計(jì)劃發(fā)射更多作為備用信號(hào)源的衛(wèi)星。

“We should seize this strategic opportunity, putting all our efforts into building up capabilities covering all domains — underwater, on the ground, in the air, in space and deep space — as soon as possible,” researchers from the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, a state-owned conglomerate, wrote in a paper last year.

“我們應(yīng)抓住戰(zhàn)略機(jī)遇，全力推進(jìn)，盡快建設(shè)形成能力，覆蓋水下、地面、空中、太空、深空，”國有企業(yè)中國航天科工集團(tuán)的研究人員去年在一篇論文中寫道。
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China retained and upgraded a World War II-era system, known as Loran, that uses radio towers to beam time signals across long distances. An enhanced version provides signals to the eastern and central parts of the country, extending offshore to Taiwan and parts of Japan. Construction is underway to expand the system west.

中國保留并升級(jí)了第二次世界大戰(zhàn)期間研發(fā)出來的“羅蘭”(Loran)系統(tǒng)，該系統(tǒng)使用無線電發(fā)射塔來發(fā)送遠(yuǎn)距離時(shí)間信號(hào)。改進(jìn)后的系統(tǒng)能為中國東部和中部地區(qū)提供時(shí)間信號(hào)，并把信號(hào)覆蓋延伸到臺(tái)灣沿海和日本部分地區(qū)。將該系統(tǒng)向西擴(kuò)展的建設(shè)正在進(jìn)行中。

Russia, too, has a long-range Loran system that remains in use. South Korea has upgraded its system to counter radio interference from North Korea.

俄羅斯也有一個(gè)仍在使用的遠(yuǎn)距離羅蘭系統(tǒng)。韓國已升級(jí)本國的系統(tǒng)以對(duì)抗朝鮮的無線電干擾。

The United States, though, decommissioned its Loran system in 2010, with President Barack Obama calling it “obsolete technology.” There was no plan to replace it.

但美國已在2010年正式停止使用本國的羅蘭系統(tǒng)，奧巴馬 將其稱為“過時(shí)的技術(shù)”。還沒有可以取代它的計(jì)劃。
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In January, the government and private companies tested an enhanced version of Loran on U.S. Coast Guard towers. But companies showed no interest in running the system without government help, so the Coast Guard plans to dispose of all eight transmission sites.

今年1月，美國政府和幾家私有企業(yè)用海岸警衛(wèi)隊(duì)的無線電發(fā)射塔測試了一個(gè)改進(jìn)版的羅蘭系統(tǒng)。但企業(yè)對(duì)在政府不提供資助的情況下運(yùn)行該系統(tǒng)沒有興趣，因此海岸警衛(wèi)隊(duì)打算把八個(gè)傳輸站全部處理掉。

“The Chinese did what we in America said we would do,” said Dana Goward, the president of the Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation in Virginia. “They are resolutely on a path to be independent of space.”

“中國人做了我們美國人說我們要做的事情，”達(dá)納·戈沃德說，他是位于弗吉尼亞州的韌性導(dǎo)航和授時(shí)基金會(huì)的主席。“他們正在堅(jiān)定地走上不依賴太空的道路?！?/b>

What Is the United States Doing?

美國在做什么？

Since Mr. Trump’s executive order, about a dozen companies have proposed options, including launching new satellites, setting up fiber optic timing systems or restarting an enhanced version of Loran. But few products have come to market.

自從特朗普發(fā)布行政命令以來，大約十幾家公司已提出了可供考慮的選擇，包括發(fā)射新衛(wèi)星、建立光纖授時(shí)系統(tǒng)，或重啟改進(jìn)版的羅蘭。但幾乎沒有產(chǎn)品上市銷售。
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A private firm, Satelles, working with the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology in Colorado, has developed an alternative source for time using satellites that were already orbiting about 485 miles above Earth.

一家名為Satelles的私有公司與位于科羅拉多州的美國國家標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與技術(shù)研究院（簡稱NIST）合作，用已經(jīng)運(yùn)行在地球表面上方約780公里的軌道上的衛(wèi)星研發(fā)了一個(gè)替代時(shí)間源。

N.I.S.T. scientists say the signals are a thousand times stronger than those from GPS satellites, which orbit more than 12,000 miles above Earth. That makes them harder to jam or spoof. And because low-Earth-orbit satellites are smaller and more dispersed, they are less vulnerable than GPS satellites to an attack in space.

NIST的科學(xué)家說，來自這些衛(wèi)星的信號(hào)比來自GPS衛(wèi)星的強(qiáng)1000倍，GPS衛(wèi)星的軌道位于地球表面上方約2萬公里處。高強(qiáng)度信號(hào)使它們更難被干擾或被假冒。而且近地軌道衛(wèi)星的體積更小、分布更廣，因此與GPS衛(wèi)星相比，它們更不容易受到太空攻擊。

The satellites obtain time from stations around the world, including the N.I.S.T. facility in Colorado and an Italian research center outside Milan, according to Satelles’s chief executive, Michael O’Connor.

這些衛(wèi)星從世界各地的授時(shí)臺(tái)獲取時(shí)間，包括科羅拉多州的一個(gè)NIST設(shè)施和米蘭郊外的一個(gè)意大利研究中心，Satelles首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·奧康納說。

China has similar plans to upgrade its space-time system by 2035. It will launch satellites to augment the Beidou system, and the country plans to launch nearly 13,000 satellites into low-Earth orbit.

中國也有一個(gè)在2035年前升級(jí)本國授時(shí)系統(tǒng)的類似計(jì)劃。中國將為增強(qiáng)北斗系統(tǒng)發(fā)射衛(wèi)星，計(jì)劃把近1.3萬顆衛(wèi)星發(fā)送到近地軌道上去。

China says its investments are partly motivated by concerns about an American attack in space. Researchers from China’s Academy of Military Sciences have said that the United States is “striving all-out” to build its space cyberwarfare abilities, especially after the war in Ukraine brought “a deeper appreciation of the critical nature of space cybersecurity.”

中國表示，進(jìn)行這些投資的動(dòng)機(jī)部分來自對(duì)美國發(fā)動(dòng)太空襲擊的擔(dān)憂。中國軍事科學(xué)院的研究人員表示，美國正在“全力以赴”建設(shè)自己的太空網(wǎng)絡(luò)戰(zhàn)能力，尤其是在俄烏戰(zhàn)爭讓人們“更加深刻地認(rèn)識(shí)到太空網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全的重要性”之后。
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The United States has increased its spending on space defense, but Space Force, a branch of the military, did not answer specific questions about the country’s antisatellite abilities. It said it was building systems to secure the nation’s interests as “space becomes an increasingly congested and contested domain.”

雖然美國政府已增加了太空防御預(yù)算，但美國太空軍（美國軍隊(duì)的一個(gè)軍種）沒有回答有關(guān)本國反衛(wèi)星能力的具體問題。太空軍稱正在建立確保國家利益的系統(tǒng)，因?yàn)椤疤找殉蔀橐粋€(gè)日益擁擠和充滿爭議的領(lǐng)域”。

Separate from civilian use, the military is developing GPS backup options for its own use, including for weapons like precision-guided missiles. Most of the technologies are classified, but one solution is a signal called M-code, which Space Force says will resist jamming and perform better in war than civilian GPS. It has been plagued by repeated delays, however.

美國軍方正在研發(fā)與民用系統(tǒng)分開的軍用GPS備份系統(tǒng)，用于精確制導(dǎo)的導(dǎo)彈等武器等。這套系統(tǒng)的大多數(shù)技術(shù)都保密，但解決方案之一是使用所謂的M碼信號(hào)，太空軍表示，這種信號(hào)能抵御干擾，在戰(zhàn)爭中的運(yùn)作能力比民用GPS更好。但該系統(tǒng)已受到多次推遲的困擾。

The military is also developing a positioning, timing and navigation service to be distributed by low-Earth-orbit satellites.

美軍也在研發(fā)一個(gè)分布在近地軌道衛(wèi)星上的定位、授時(shí)和導(dǎo)航服務(wù)系統(tǒng)。

Other countermeasures look to the past. The U.S. Naval Academy resumed teaching sailors to navigate by the stars.

其他對(duì)抗手段著眼于歷史。美國海軍學(xué)院已恢復(fù)了教授水手如何用星星導(dǎo)航的課程。

What Happens if the U.S. Doesn’t Find a Solution?

如果美國找不到解決方案會(huì)發(fā)生什么？

Satellite systems — America’s GPS, China’s Beidou, Europe’s Galileo and Russia’s Glonass — are the important sources of time, and time is the cornerstone of most methods of navigation.

衛(wèi)星系統(tǒng)——美國的GPS、中國的北斗、歐洲的伽利略和俄羅斯的格洛納斯——是重要的時(shí)間源，而時(shí)間是大多數(shù)導(dǎo)航方法的基石。

In the American GPS system, for example, each satellite carries atomic clocks and transmits radio signals with information about its location and the precise time. When a cellphone receiver picks up signals from four satellites, it calculates its own location based on how long it took for those signals to arrive.

以美國的GPS系統(tǒng)為例，每顆衛(wèi)星攜帶原子鐘，衛(wèi)星發(fā)出其位置和精確時(shí)間的無線電信號(hào)。手機(jī)的GPS接收器收到來自四顆衛(wèi)星的信號(hào)后，根據(jù)這些信號(hào)傳到手機(jī)需要的時(shí)間來計(jì)算自己的位置。

Cars, ships and navigation systems on board aircraft all operate the same way.

汽車、船舶和飛機(jī)攜帶的導(dǎo)航系統(tǒng)都以同樣的方式工作。

Other infrastructure relies on satellites, too. Telecom companies use precise time to synchronize their networks. Power companies need time from satellites to monitor the state of the grid and to quickly identify and investigate failures. Financial exchanges use it to keep track of orders. Emergency services use it to locate people in need. Farmers use it to plant crops with precision.

其他基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施也依賴衛(wèi)星。電信公司同步其網(wǎng)絡(luò)需要精確的時(shí)間。電力公司監(jiān)控電網(wǎng)狀態(tài)、快速識(shí)別排查故障需要精確的衛(wèi)星授時(shí)。金融交易所跟蹤訂單情況需要精確的時(shí)間。緊急服務(wù)部門用衛(wèi)星來定位需要幫助的人。農(nóng)民精準(zhǔn)播種作物需要衛(wèi)星授時(shí)。

A world without satellite signals is a world that is nearly blind. Ambulances will be delayed on perpetually congested roads. Cellphone calls will drop. Ships may get lost. Power outages may last longer. Food can cost more. Getting around will be much harder.

沒有衛(wèi)星信號(hào)的世界是個(gè)近乎失明的世界。持續(xù)堵車的道路會(huì)導(dǎo)致救護(hù)車延誤。手機(jī)通話會(huì)中途斷掉。船只可能會(huì)迷失航向。斷電的時(shí)間可能會(huì)更長。食物可能會(huì)更貴。到各地旅行會(huì)更困難。

Yet, some critical civilian systems were designed with a flawed assumption that satellite signals would always be available, according to the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

但據(jù)美國網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施安全局的說法，一些至關(guān)重要的民用系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)基于一個(gè)有錯(cuò)誤的假設(shè)，那就是衛(wèi)星信號(hào)總在那里。

That reliance can have dire consequences. A recent report from Britain showed that a weeklong outage of all satellite signals would cost its economy nearly $9.7 billion. An earlier report put the toll on the U.S. economy at $1 billion a day, but that estimate is five years old.

這種依賴可能有極其嚴(yán)重的后果。一份最近來自英國的報(bào)告顯示，所有的衛(wèi)星信號(hào)中斷一周會(huì)給英國經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來近97億美元的損失。一份更早的報(bào)告估計(jì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的損失每天達(dá)10億美元，但這是五年前的報(bào)告。

“It’s like oxygen, you don’t know that you have it until it’s gone,” Adm. Thad W. Allen, a former commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard who leads a national advisory board for space-based positioning, navigation and timing, said last year.

“它像是氧氣，在沒了之前，你覺察不到它的存在，”美國海岸警衛(wèi)隊(duì)前司令員海軍上將薩德·艾倫去年說，他是天基定位、導(dǎo)航和授時(shí)國家顧問委員會(huì)的負(fù)責(zé)人。

For now, mutually assured losses deter major attacks. Satellite signals are transmitted on a narrow radio band, which makes it difficult for one nation to jam another’s satellite signals without shutting off its own services.

目前，相互保證的損失阻止了大攻擊。衛(wèi)星信號(hào)在一個(gè)狹窄的無線電頻段上傳輸，這讓一個(gè)國家很難在不打斷本國服務(wù)的情況下干擾另一個(gè)國家的衛(wèi)星信號(hào)。

Having GPS for free for 50 years has “gotten everybody addicted,” according to Mr. Goward from the Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation. The government has not done enough to make alternatives available to the public, he said.

用了50年的免費(fèi)GPS系統(tǒng)已“讓所有的人離不開它”，韌性導(dǎo)航和授時(shí)基金會(huì)的戈沃德說。政府在為公眾提供替代系統(tǒng)上做得還不夠，他說。

“It’s only admiring the problem,” he said, “not solving the problem.”

“政府只是意識(shí)到這個(gè)問題很重要，而不是在解決問題，”他說。