網(wǎng)友熱議：為什么中國(guó)向高端制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的速度比日本慢很多？中國(guó)應(yīng)該向日本學(xué)習(xí)什么，才能更快地從低端制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型到高端制造業(yè)？

Ship-building was an early industrial success in Japan where Japan became the builder for 60% of all the ships in the world by 1965. Do you know how it happened? The U.S. shipbuilder, National Bulk Carrier Company, traded a temporarily use the former Japanese navy yard at Kure in return for unrestricted access to manufacturing technologies by Japanese shipbuilders. Like, can I use your backyard for a couple of years, and you get all the technology we have?

造船業(yè)是日本早期工業(yè)化的一個(gè)成功案例,到1965年,日本成為了全球60%船舶的制造商。你知道這是怎么發(fā)生的嗎?美國(guó)船舶制造商國(guó)家散貨公司,以臨時(shí)使用日本駐庫(kù)盧的前海軍船塢為交換條件,獲得了無(wú)限制訪問(wèn)美國(guó)造船技術(shù)的機(jī)會(huì)。就像說(shuō),我可以使用你的后院幾年,而你可以獲得我們所有的技術(shù)一樣。

Do you know how the Japanese car industry started? That was started by the "special vehicle procurement" by the U.S. military during the Korean War. Then with Germany and Austria being the defeated party, their scientific advancement such as the basic oxygen furnace became "free for all" to the U.S. and her ally Japan, and that was how the Japanese steel and car industries became the leader.

你知道日本汽車(chē)工業(yè)是如何起步的嗎?那是源于朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)期間美國(guó)軍方的"特別車(chē)輛采購(gòu)"計(jì)劃。之后,由于德國(guó)和奧地利是戰(zhàn)敗國(guó),他們的一些科技成果如基礎(chǔ)氧氣爐等對(duì)美國(guó)及其盟友日本來(lái)說(shuō)是"免費(fèi)的",這就是日本鋼鐵和汽車(chē)工業(yè)成為領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的原因。

But the most long-lasting industrial advantage Japan enjoyed was unequal access where the US companies have very restricted access to the Japanese market, while Japanese companies enjoy unlimited open access to the US market. Pretty much the only way for a foreign company to access Japanese market is through technology transfer, which was why Fairchild licensed the planar process (key for semiconductor manufacturing) to the Japanese company NEC, who then licensed the technology to other Japanese companies, which kick-started Japan's electric manufacturing.

但日本享有的最持久的產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)是不對(duì)等的市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入,即美國(guó)公司進(jìn)入日本市場(chǎng)非常受限制,而日本公司則可以無(wú)限制開(kāi)放進(jìn)入美國(guó)市場(chǎng)。外國(guó)公司幾乎唯一進(jìn)入日本市場(chǎng)的方式就是技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓,這就是為什么仙童半導(dǎo)體公司將平面工藝(半導(dǎo)體制造的關(guān)鍵)授權(quán)給日本的NEC公司,NEC公司又將該技術(shù)授權(quán)給其他日本公司,從而拉開(kāi)了日本電子制造業(yè)的序幕。
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Last time I checked, the US government is not allowing Huawei to have unlimited access to the US market, while restricting Cisco and HP's access to the Chinese market! The US either outright bans Huawei, or demand equal market access.

就我所知,美國(guó)政府不允許華為無(wú)限制進(jìn)入美國(guó)市場(chǎng),同時(shí)又限制思科和惠普進(jìn)入中國(guó)市場(chǎng)!美國(guó)要么直接禁止華為,要么要求同等的市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入。

All these technology transfers between the US and Japan - are not some unknown innovator patents, but for top-of-the-line industrial sectors with known market, and just handed over like that. So you see, Japan was successful because it was standing on the shoulders of the US, Germany, etc. China, on the other hand, started its industrialization from the 156 industrialization projects in 1956 with the USSR. China being an agrarian country, this knowledge transfer was heavily focused on agriculture-related industries such as coal, steel, fertilizer manufacturing, and machine tools for tractors. History of science and technology in the People's Republic of China - Wikipedia The West embargoed China following the Korean War, and that embargo has never been COMPLETELY lifted. There are still very heavy technology transfer restrictions on China to this day, so whatever China has today, either they bought units from the open market, and figured out a way to copied it, or they invented themselves. Story was that the first time China made her own IC was by some Chinese scientist sitting in the lab, using a weak acid solution to meticulously wipe away each layer, and hand-drew the circuit chart as each layer was wiped off! That's a much harder process than just getting it handed to you.

這些美國(guó)和日本之間的技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓并非什么無(wú)足輕重的專(zhuān)利發(fā)明,而是頂級(jí)的工業(yè)領(lǐng)域的技術(shù),有著已知的市場(chǎng),卻被如此輕易地交付出去。所以你看,日本之所以成功,是因?yàn)樗钦驹诿绹?guó)、德國(guó)等國(guó)家的肩膀上的。另一方面,中國(guó)的工業(yè)化始于1956年與蘇聯(lián)合作的156個(gè)工業(yè)化項(xiàng)目。作為一個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)國(guó)家,這種知識(shí)轉(zhuǎn)讓主要集中在煤炭、鋼鐵、化肥制造和拖拉機(jī)機(jī)床等農(nóng)業(yè)相關(guān)行業(yè)。朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)之后,西方國(guó)家對(duì)中國(guó)實(shí)施了禁運(yùn),而且這種禁運(yùn)至今從未完全解除。如今對(duì)中國(guó)的技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓限制依然非常嚴(yán)格,所以無(wú)論中國(guó)今天擁有什么,要么是從公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)購(gòu)買(mǎi)并設(shè)法復(fù)制,要么是自己發(fā)明的。有一個(gè)故事是,中國(guó)第一次自己制造集成電路時(shí),是一位中國(guó)科學(xué)家在實(shí)驗(yàn)室里,用一種溫和的酸液一層層小心翼翼地腐蝕掉每一層,并手繪出每一層電路圖。這比直接獲取技術(shù)要難得多!

Winston Chen
She's not-unless you consider manufacturing iPhones “l(fā)ow-end manufacturing.” Presumably what you're asking is why China is not a high-income country like Japan is, which can be attributed to most people being employed in middle income industries instead of high income industries (manufacturing vs engineering (or service industries in general), i.e.). There are a lot of reasons for this: Japan essentially exported her way to prosperity, China is too big for that, also China is a less open society, which impedes transition to innovative knowledge economies, the relatively opaque legal system….but mostly, it's the fact that she's been integrated into the global economy only since about 1980 at earliest, and in fact not really in truth until much later. Ask again in 10–15 years, and we’ll see how much further along she's gotten.

中國(guó)的轉(zhuǎn)型根本就不慢，除非你認(rèn)為iphone的生產(chǎn)也屬于“低端制造業(yè)”。大概我猜，你想問(wèn)的是為什么中國(guó)還不是日本那樣的高收入國(guó)家，這可以歸因于大多數(shù)人從事中等收入行業(yè)，而非高收入行業(yè)。這有很多原因：日本基本上是靠出口實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮的，但中國(guó)實(shí)在太大了，又不是一個(gè)非常開(kāi)放的社會(huì)，這阻礙了中國(guó)向創(chuàng)新知識(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)的過(guò)渡....但最重要的是，中國(guó)是在1980年左右才開(kāi)始融入全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的，事實(shí)上，直到很久以后才真正融入全球經(jīng)濟(jì)。你可以等個(gè)10-15年再問(wèn)一次這個(gè)問(wèn)題，到那個(gè)時(shí)候我們就會(huì)知道中國(guó)已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)多大的發(fā)展了。
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Malleus Sinarum
Because China did not invent the modern world, America, and Japan and Germany did. Modernism is a idiom. China did not speak or invent the idiom of modernism. So they are the outside looking in still. Western live is something they copy but it’s nothing indigenous to Chinese culture.

因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)代世界不是中國(guó)發(fā)明的，而是美國(guó)、日本和德國(guó)發(fā)明的。現(xiàn)代主義是一個(gè)詞，并不是中國(guó)提出或發(fā)明出來(lái)的。所以中國(guó)人至今仍然是局外人。西方的生活是中國(guó)可以復(fù)制的東西，但并不是中國(guó)的本土文化。

Yausi Tamn
no expert , perhaps China was on the phrase of development which was still remote from high end perhaps because China that time found it more right to go for low cost consumers products to go into high end will mean direct rivalry with Japan and the entire western world which at that circumstances will arouse the west and Japan to rage on China , the low cost consumers products was no offense to anybody until the era had changed for China to find survival gradually at high end , I think times had changed that Japan and the West is not after even the high end and times are such that Japan and the West are seeking to even outsource the high end and had secured themselves on other high level developments

沒(méi)有專(zhuān)家，也許中國(guó)的發(fā)展與高端制造業(yè)仍存在較大的差距，也許是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)當(dāng)時(shí)覺(jué)得制造低端產(chǎn)品更合適，如果當(dāng)時(shí)就制造高端產(chǎn)品，將意味著直接與日本和整個(gè)西方世界競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，在當(dāng)時(shí)的歷史背景下，絕對(duì)會(huì)引起西方和日本對(duì)中國(guó)的敵對(duì)。低端產(chǎn)品不會(huì)侵犯他們的利益，直到時(shí)代逐漸改變，中國(guó)逐漸在高端制造業(yè)找到了立足之地。我認(rèn)為時(shí)代已經(jīng)發(fā)生了改變，日本和西方甚至已經(jīng)不追求高端制造業(yè)了，現(xiàn)在的日本和西方希望將高端制造業(yè)外包出去，在其他高水平研發(fā)上獲得了穩(wěn)固的地位。

John Thacker
If the premise is “China is much slower in transitioning to high-end manufacturing than Japan did at a similar level of development / income,” then the premise is incorrect. China is not being slowing in transitioning to high-end manufacturing than other countries of a similar per capita income. China is still a middle-income country, of similar per capita income to Thailand and its position in the manufacturing value chain compares reasonably, even favorably to Thailand (and to other Asian countries at similar stages of development.)

如果你這個(gè)問(wèn)題的前提是“在類(lèi)似的發(fā)展/收入水平下，中國(guó)向高端制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的速度比日本慢得多”，那么我只能說(shuō)你這個(gè)前提是不正確的。跟其他人均收入水平相似的國(guó)家相比，中國(guó)向高端制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的速度并不慢。中國(guó)現(xiàn)在還是中等收入國(guó)家，人均收入與泰國(guó)相當(dāng)，中國(guó)在制造業(yè)價(jià)值鏈中的地位相對(duì)合理，甚至優(yōu)于泰國(guó)(以及其他處于類(lèi)似發(fā)展階段的亞洲國(guó)家)。

China is a very unequal country. Because it is a large country, there are individually wealthy people and wealthy cities, just as Bangkok looks quite modern and rich. But once you take into account all the rural areas, it is a middle income country.
Now, if the question is, “Why is China much slower on becoming a high average income country post World War II than Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc.” that’s a much more complicated question worthy of study.

中國(guó)是一個(gè)發(fā)展非常不均衡的國(guó)家。因?yàn)橹袊?guó)是一個(gè)大國(guó)，所以有富裕的民眾和富裕的城市，就像曼谷那樣，看起來(lái)也非常摩登富裕。但是如果你把所有的農(nóng)村地區(qū)都考慮進(jìn)去，那么中國(guó)就是一個(gè)中等收入國(guó)家。
現(xiàn)在，如果問(wèn)題改成“為什么二戰(zhàn)后，中國(guó)大陸成長(zhǎng)為高人均收入國(guó)家的速度比日本、韓國(guó)、新加坡、中國(guó)香港、中國(guó)臺(tái)灣等都要慢得多”，那么這個(gè)問(wèn)題會(huì)更復(fù)雜一些，值得研究。

Scott Rong
You really need read the history book to understand China & Japan in 1950, 1960, 1970, etc.
What China learn is to develop step by step, from low end to high end, learn and work hard.

你真的得讀點(diǎn)歷史書(shū)，了解一下1950年、1960年、1970年等時(shí)期的中國(guó)和日本分別是什么情況。
中國(guó)學(xué)到的經(jīng)驗(yàn)是穩(wěn)扎穩(wěn)打，一步一步地發(fā)展，從低端到高端，不斷學(xué)習(xí)，不斷努力。

iao Nengshou
You may not have noticed that Japan was already very developed before World War II, at least in terms of technology and industry. Technology is not instantaneous, and it will take many years or even several generations. When China first developed heavy industry, it encountered the Sino-Japanese War, and there has been little progress since the latter half of the century. The huge volume also makes China very difficult to manage. More importantly, China does not have the kind of urgency that South Koreans feel. At least from the low suicide rate in China, we can see that the Chinese people's sense of competition is not very strong. National peace is a prerequisite for the development of science and technology. However, the main experience of China in the first half century was war and revolution. In addition to the continued development of weapons, other technologies are almost stagnant. In addition, the relationship between China and the West is not very good. In strategic considerations, China cannot purchase advanced civilian technology. In fact, the United States once sold many civilian technologies to Japan, and China can only rely on its own research and development.

你可能不太了解，在第二次世界大戰(zhàn)之前，日本就已經(jīng)非常發(fā)達(dá)了，至少在科技和工業(yè)方面已經(jīng)如此?？萍疾豢赡芩查g飛躍，需要很多年甚至很多代人的時(shí)間。中國(guó)剛開(kāi)始發(fā)展重工業(yè)時(shí)，遇到了甲午戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，從20世紀(jì)下半葉之后幾乎沒(méi)有什么進(jìn)步。中國(guó)的疆域之大也令中國(guó)很難管理。更重要的是，中國(guó)沒(méi)有像韓國(guó)人那樣感受到急切的緊迫感。至少?gòu)闹袊?guó)較低的自殺率可以看出，中國(guó)人的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)意識(shí)并不是很強(qiáng)。國(guó)家和平是科學(xué)技術(shù)發(fā)展的先決條件。但中國(guó)在前半個(gè)世紀(jì)一直忙著戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和革命。除了繼續(xù)研發(fā)武器之外，其他科技都幾乎停滯不前。此外，中國(guó)和西方的關(guān)系也不太融洽。出于戰(zhàn)略考慮，中國(guó)無(wú)法購(gòu)買(mǎi)先進(jìn)的民用技術(shù)。事實(shí)上，美國(guó)就曾經(jīng)將很多民用技術(shù)賣(mài)給了日本，中國(guó)只能依靠自主研發(fā)。

Deng in

Japan is one of the oldest capitalists countries on the earth,it reformed and begun to industrialize in the 19th century ,Japan got a huge “compensation “ from China (Qing government)through the treaty of shimonoseki (馬關(guān)條約）at the end of 19th century,it helped Japan laid the foundations of high end manufacturing and high literacy. Even the remote villages had already had electricity at that time ,you can’t imagine that in China.As a result Japan had the power to start the war in pacific area. After WW2 many infrastructure in Japan were damaged but the technology foundation remained,so it turned to civil science and technology with the help of USA and became the representative of high-end manufacturing.

So I think you should compare Japan with Germany instead of China ,they are more similar in development history

日本是地球上最古老的zb主義國(guó)家之一，它在19世紀(jì)進(jìn)行改革并開(kāi)始了工業(yè)化進(jìn)程。日本在19世紀(jì)末通過(guò)《馬關(guān)條約》從中國(guó)(清政府)那里獲得了巨額的“賠償”，這筆資金幫助日本奠定了高端制造業(yè)和高識(shí)字率的基礎(chǔ)。在當(dāng)時(shí)的日本，就連偏遠(yuǎn)的村莊也都已經(jīng)通電了，這在當(dāng)時(shí)的中國(guó)是無(wú)法想象的。因此，日本有能力在太平洋地區(qū)發(fā)動(dòng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。二戰(zhàn)后，日本的許多基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施遭到了破壞，但科技基礎(chǔ)仍然存在，所以日本在美國(guó)的幫助下轉(zhuǎn)而發(fā)展民用科技，成為高端制造業(yè)的代表國(guó)家。
所以我認(rèn)為你應(yīng)該比較日本和德國(guó)，這兩個(gè)國(guó)家在發(fā)展歷史上更為相似。

Ron Berkes
Quality systems are needed for high quality manufacturing. Its not China compared to Japan. Its companies that embrace quality systems and ones who do not. High-end manufacturing requires a solid quality system behind it and many factories in China have adopted those systems based on global demand.

高質(zhì)量生產(chǎn)需要質(zhì)量體系。不是中國(guó)和日本比如何，而是采納質(zhì)量體系的公司和不采納質(zhì)量體系的公司的對(duì)比。高端制造業(yè)需要堅(jiān)實(shí)的質(zhì)量體系作為后盾，中國(guó)的許多工廠已經(jīng)根據(jù)全球商品采購(gòu)需求采納了這些體系。

Mark Jordon
The economic of America is better than Japan and much more better than South Korea while South Korea is still far more better than China.If China want to caught up with South Korea,what will happened???

美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)比日本好，比韓國(guó)好很多，而韓國(guó)還是比中國(guó)好上不少。如果中國(guó)想要趕超韓國(guó)，會(huì)發(fā)生什么？
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From the picture we can see that there are 17 Korean company reach to top five hundred companies in the world.If China caught up with South Korea ,consider that the population of China is 27 times bigger than South Korea,There will be more than 459 Chinese company reach to top five hundred companies in the world .
Yes,if China want to catch up with South Korea,it means that more than 45.9 percent of the best company will belong to China,it is a impossible aim for China ,so China will always be a develo country.

從圖中我們可以看到，世界500強(qiáng)中有17家韓國(guó)公司。如果中國(guó)趕超韓國(guó)，鑒于中國(guó)的人口是韓國(guó)的27倍，那么中國(guó)將有超過(guò)459家企業(yè)躋身世界500強(qiáng)。
是的，如果中國(guó)想趕超韓國(guó)，就意味著超過(guò)45.9%的一流企業(yè)將屬于中國(guó)，這對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)，所以中國(guó)只能永遠(yuǎn)維持發(fā)展中國(guó)家的地位。

Mike Wu
Very good answers have been given. But there is one more point I'd like to raise, China’s population and geographic size. Education and economic opportunities are not evenly distributed across the country. And the supporting infrastructure is still heavily concentrated along the eastern coast and large cities.
China is still investing to bring the hinterland into the economic fold. In the meantime one still needs low end high manpower industries to provide jobs for the “teeming masses”.

我已經(jīng)在評(píng)論區(qū)看到了很好的答案。但我還想提一點(diǎn)，中國(guó)的人口和地理面積。教育和經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)會(huì)在整個(gè)中國(guó)的分布并不均勻。配套基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施仍主要集中在東部沿海和大城市。
中國(guó)仍在繼續(xù)投資，將內(nèi)陸地區(qū)納入經(jīng)濟(jì)版圖。與此同時(shí)，我們?nèi)匀恍枰投藙趧?dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)來(lái)為“普羅大眾”提供就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。

M. Stan
I think the question should be rephrased to: Why is China much slower on transition to “high-end-only” manufacturing than Japan?

我認(rèn)為這個(gè)問(wèn)題應(yīng)該改寫(xiě)一下：為什么中國(guó)向“只保留高端制造業(yè)”轉(zhuǎn)型的速度比日本慢得多？

Joseph Wang
I don’t think that China is mostly about low-end manufacturing, and the transition time from low end to high end seems pretty comparable.
The low tech factories have moved away from China, and most everything that I’ve seen manufactured in China nowadays has some computer chip in it, so people aren’t manufacturing shoes but rather smart phones and robots (and robots to make smart phones).

我并不認(rèn)為中國(guó)還在專(zhuān)心發(fā)展低端制造業(yè)，從低端到高端的過(guò)渡時(shí)間似乎挺有優(yōu)勢(shì)的。
低技術(shù)含量的工廠已經(jīng)撤離中國(guó)了，現(xiàn)在我能看到的中國(guó)制造的幾乎所有商品都內(nèi)置了電腦芯片，所以中國(guó)人已經(jīng)不是整天制造鞋子了，他們已經(jīng)在制造智能手機(jī)和機(jī)器人(以及能制造智能手機(jī)的機(jī)器人)。

Martin Basinger
The basic assumption your question contains is flat out wrong. Basically all high-technology that sells around the world today is manufactured in China, not Japan. China’s rise is actually faster so far, and with no external help like Japan received.
I don’t think Japan is a good example to learn from - because they did not do the transition on their own, they were propped up as it was merely a nice present given to them by the US after WWII because the US thought they needed an economically strong “wall” against the rise of co sm back then. And look how little is left of their wealth - they are piling on debt like no other country in the world, they can’t seem to turn around their economy no matter how drastic the measures they try to apply are (Abenomics = Quantitative easing at never seen before scale), and they seem to fall back into the dangerous old ideologies (superiorism).

你在問(wèn)題里提出的基本假設(shè)是完全錯(cuò)誤的。世界各地正在銷(xiāo)售的幾乎所有高科技產(chǎn)品都不是日本制造，而是中國(guó)制造。到目前為止，中國(guó)的崛起速度超過(guò)日本，也沒(méi)有像日本那樣得到過(guò)外部的幫助。
我認(rèn)為日本并不是一個(gè)值得學(xué)習(xí)的好榜樣—因?yàn)樗麄儾⒎且揽孔约和瓿赊D(zhuǎn)型，他們只是很幸運(yùn)地在二戰(zhàn)后獲得美國(guó)贈(zèng)與他們的厚禮—美國(guó)認(rèn)為他們需要一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)上足夠強(qiáng)大的“封鎖墻”來(lái)對(duì)抗他們的崛起?？纯此麄儍H存的一點(diǎn)財(cái)富吧—他們不斷堆積債務(wù)，債臺(tái)高筑，超過(guò)了世界上所有的國(guó)家。無(wú)論采取多么嚴(yán)苛的措施(史上最大規(guī)模的定量寬松政策)，他們似乎都已經(jīng)無(wú)力扭轉(zhuǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)頹勢(shì)了，他們似乎陷入了危險(xiǎn)的舊意識(shí)形態(tài)。