紅迪熱議：AI...是泡沫嗎？“與2000年初的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫有些相似！”“總會(huì)出現(xiàn)新的炒作熱潮或泡沫”，“AI取得重大突破,泡沫將被消化掉.”
AI... is it a bubble?
譯文簡(jiǎn)介
網(wǎng)友：在我看來，這與2000年初的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫有些相似。一些知名人士支持AI，加上媒體對(duì)AI及其潛力的持續(xù)報(bào)道。這并不意味著AI最終不會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)其承諾，就像互聯(lián)網(wǎng)最終發(fā)展成為今天的樣子一樣......
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Discussion
Everyone knows about AI at this point and its nearly impossible to find any economic or business news coverage that isn't talking about it. I completely understand how influential AI can be over the coming decades and I'm not doubting the practicality that it will increasingly have in our society, but do these tech stocks that have been fueling this recent rally really have enough substance to be able to back their current stock prices. To me it seems similar to the internet bubble in the early 2000s. A couple of prominent figures backing AI along with constant media coverage of the subject and its potential. This doesn't mean that AI won't eventually live up to the billing, the same way that the internet eventually grew into what it is today. Most who are heavy into AI seem like those who are seeking to get rich quick, which is of course their prerogative, it just seems like a dangerous combination to me. To me it seems somewhat speculative and I'm curious what others think about the subject.
目前，幾乎所有人都了解人工智能（AI），并且在經(jīng)濟(jì)或商業(yè)新聞報(bào)道中很難找到不涉及AI的話題。我完全理解在未來幾十年內(nèi)AI可能產(chǎn)生的巨大影響力，也不懷疑它將在我們的社會(huì)中發(fā)揮越來越大的實(shí)用性作用。但是，推動(dòng)近期股市上漲的這些科技股真的有足夠的實(shí)質(zhì)內(nèi)容來支撐它們當(dāng)前的股價(jià)嗎？
在我看來，這與2000年初的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫有些相似。一些知名人士支持AI，加上媒體對(duì)AI及其潛力的持續(xù)報(bào)道。這并不意味著AI最終不會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)其承諾，就像互聯(lián)網(wǎng)最終發(fā)展成為今天的樣子一樣。
大多數(shù)熱衷于AI的人似乎都在尋求快速致富，這是他們的權(quán)利，但在我看來，這種組合似乎有些危險(xiǎn)。在我看來，投資AI領(lǐng)域似乎帶有一定的投機(jī)性，我很想知道其他人對(duì)此有何看法。
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No real way to tell without a crystal ball, but as a business literate programmer and systems analyst.... to a degree.
Most of the startups are garbage. They'll get some hype and fizzle out over time. It's a modern day gold rush and the majority of the gold is garbage.
However the techniques that are being developed are irreplaceable and can achieve things that were literally impossible to program even 10 years ago. Techniques like turning photocopies into parseable written text was a pipe dream. Language comprehension, large scale pattern recognition, that sort of thing is absolutely gold. These technologies will gradually hook in with automation tools to meaningfully reduce man-hour requirements in office like roles.
For examples of some of the recent uses, recently in material science it was used to attempt to find hypothetical materials that can outperform modern materials(and "jumped the field ahead 600 years"), or the recent use to find a new antibiotic to fight MRSA, these are absolutely insane benefit wise and the first person to develop AI to produce inventions in any category reaps huge rewards.
The techniques that have already been developed are hypothetically extremely valuable in a wide variety of fields, it's good at time series forecasting for businesses, connecting patterns in data that didn't exist, outputting weird nonsense like using dead actors in movies, etc...
But these tools will become common place and things will settle down and their value will fall to that of a normal tool I believe. My assessment is that the thing worth investing in now is "the cloud". AI is so expensive to train that almost everyone will be outsourcing their computational needs for a long time and the companies providing the computational power are in an insanely strong position to capitalize on it.
This is your obvious Nvidia, AMD, google, microsoft, amazon ABCDEFG tech stack. I don't think you can go wrong buying stock in them, properly diversified. Nvidia is the obvious example and I do not believe they're truly in a bubble compared to the revenue growth we've seen quarter over quarter as AI quickly outpaced their entire classic revenue streams and is beating forecasts constantly. Pretty much every major cloud provider is using them, and they are just starting to try to pivot to providing similar services. Will nvidia collapse in price a lil? Maybe, probably even. But I think it'll keep going up in general for several years, barring massive recession(which seems pretty likely too lol)
Riskier options... any kind of technology that makes AI easier to use or cheaper could fly up in value more dramatically. AI is still a pain in the ass to learn or code for inexperienced developers as the tools are generally written by people with less industry experience in libraries for the masses.
Classification based AI is amazing, but Generative AI in my opinion is a massive bubble. Useful, but more of a parlour trick that I don't believe is possible to ever quite be "perfect". The inherent hallucinations and semi-randomness in the generation means you can never actually trust the output, so it prevents itself from being used in any mass business automation where "pretty good" means losing a lot of money. The obvious thing is it can save time in producing art or movies or music, but I don't think it has significant value beyond the last revolutionary CGI technology.
Just my two cents.
作為一個(gè)具備商業(yè)素養(yǎng)的程序員和系統(tǒng)分析師，雖然無法通過水晶球準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)未來，但我可以基于現(xiàn)有的理解分享一些看法。
當(dāng)前大部分初創(chuàng)公司涉足AI領(lǐng)域，但其中很多可能只是炒作一時(shí)，最終會(huì)逐漸消失。這就好比現(xiàn)代版的淘金熱，大多數(shù)“黃金”其實(shí)并不成色。然而，在這一過程中開發(fā)出的技術(shù)是無可替代的，它們能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)十年前幾乎無法編程的任務(wù)，比如將復(fù)印件轉(zhuǎn)化為可解析的文字，語言理解，大規(guī)模模式識(shí)別等，這些技術(shù)無疑是真正的“黃金”。隨著這些技術(shù)與自動(dòng)化工具的逐步結(jié)合，辦公室類角色的工作時(shí)間需求將得到有意義的減少。
近期在材料科學(xué)、藥物研發(fā)等領(lǐng)域，AI已展現(xiàn)出驚人的應(yīng)用價(jià)值。例如，利用AI嘗試尋找超越現(xiàn)有材料性能的假設(shè)性材料，使該領(lǐng)域的研究進(jìn)度提前了數(shù)百年；或是發(fā)現(xiàn)對(duì)抗MRSA的新抗生素，這些都是巨大的突破。首個(gè)成功開發(fā)出能在任何類別中產(chǎn)生發(fā)明的AI的企業(yè)將收獲巨大回報(bào)。
目前已經(jīng)開發(fā)出的技術(shù)在眾多領(lǐng)域都具有極大的潛在價(jià)值，如用于商業(yè)的時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)、挖掘數(shù)據(jù)中未曾存在的模式，以及生成諸如讓已故演員出現(xiàn)在電影中的奇特內(nèi)容等。然而，隨著時(shí)間推移，這些工具將成為常態(tài)，其價(jià)值將趨于平穩(wěn)并回歸到普通工具水平。我認(rèn)為目前值得投資的是“云計(jì)算”。由于訓(xùn)練AI的成本極高，預(yù)計(jì)在未來很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，幾乎所有人都會(huì)選擇外包計(jì)算需求，而提供計(jì)算能力的公司將處于極其有利的地位來利用這一機(jī)遇。
顯而易見的投資選擇包括英偉達(dá)（Nvidia）、AMD、谷歌（Google）、微軟（Microsoft）、亞馬遜（Amazon）等大型科技公司的股票。通過適當(dāng)分散投資，我認(rèn)為投資這些公司不會(huì)犯大錯(cuò)。以英偉達(dá)為例，盡管其股價(jià)可能會(huì)有所波動(dòng)，但從季度同比增長(zhǎng)來看，AI業(yè)務(wù)已經(jīng)迅速超過其傳統(tǒng)收入來源，并且持續(xù)超出預(yù)期。幾乎所有主要云服務(wù)提供商都在使用其產(chǎn)品，而英偉達(dá)也開始轉(zhuǎn)向提供類似的服務(wù)。即使出現(xiàn)大幅衰退（這也似乎是很有可能的情況），但在未來幾年內(nèi)，我認(rèn)為英偉達(dá)股價(jià)總體上仍會(huì)上漲。
風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高但可能帶來更大收益的投資選項(xiàng)，是那些能讓AI更易于使用或降低成本的技術(shù)。對(duì)于經(jīng)驗(yàn)不足的開發(fā)者而言，AI的學(xué)習(xí)和編碼仍然是一項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn)，因?yàn)槟壳暗墓ぞ咄ǔＳ尚袠I(yè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)較少的人為大眾開發(fā)的庫編寫而成。
基于分類的AI非常出色，但在我看來，生成式AI可能存在一個(gè)大的泡沫。生成式AI雖有用，但某種程度上更像是一個(gè)吸引眼球的小把戲，我認(rèn)為它很難做到“完美”。生成過程中的內(nèi)在幻覺和半隨機(jī)性意味著你無法完全信任輸出結(jié)果，這就限制了它在需要高度精確的商業(yè)自動(dòng)化場(chǎng)景中的應(yīng)用，因?yàn)樵谶@些場(chǎng)景中，“相當(dāng)好”的結(jié)果也可能導(dǎo)致大量金錢損失。生成式AI明顯的優(yōu)勢(shì)在于節(jié)省藝術(shù)創(chuàng)作、電影制作或音樂創(chuàng)作等方面的時(shí)間，但在超越上一次革命性的CGI技術(shù)之外，我不認(rèn)為它擁有顯著的價(jià)值。
以上僅為個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)。
Great insight especially that sentence about the difference between AI for classification and gen AI. I think the main issue is everyone is competing for a piece of the pie and margins will suffer, but that will take a while. The catalyst I guess will be a good CUDA competitor.
很好的見解，特別是關(guān)于分類AI與生成式AI之間差異的那個(gè)論斷。我認(rèn)為目前的主要問題在于大家都在爭(zhēng)奪市場(chǎng)份額這塊“蛋糕”，而這將會(huì)導(dǎo)致利潤(rùn)空間受到壓縮，不過這一過程可能會(huì)持續(xù)一段時(shí)間。我猜測(cè)，推動(dòng)這一變革的催化劑很可能是出現(xiàn)一款能夠與CUDA相抗衡的優(yōu)秀競(jìng)爭(zhēng)產(chǎn)品。
I think that's a great point and I 100% agree with you!
AMD and Apple are both currently starting to try to flex at Nvidia that their technology is competitive/better, but right now the big thing isn't technological superiority, it's infrastructure at scale, and Nvidia is the only game in town. But when the other companies do get a legitimate counter offer on the table I think you're right on the money, it'll reign nvidia's growth and margins in pretty hard and that's probably a great time to start backing off on investments as it becomes a more stable/competitive market.
I wouldn't be surprised to see AMD grow pretty majorly if they do get proper rent to use infrastructure in place though, just through getting a piece of that massive pie.
我認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)非常好的觀點(diǎn)，并且我100%贊同你的看法！
AMD和蘋果目前都在試圖向英偉達(dá)展示，他們的技術(shù)同樣具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力甚至更優(yōu)，但當(dāng)前的關(guān)鍵問題并非技術(shù)上的絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)，而是規(guī)模化基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的建設(shè)，而在這方面英偉達(dá)是唯一的主導(dǎo)者。然而，一旦其他公司確實(shí)提出了有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的對(duì)抗方案，我認(rèn)為正如你所說，這將對(duì)英偉達(dá)的增長(zhǎng)速度和利潤(rùn)空間形成相當(dāng)大的制約，那時(shí)可能是開始減少相關(guān)投資的好時(shí)機(jī)，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)將變得更加穩(wěn)定且競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈。
不過，如果AMD能夠成功建立起相應(yīng)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施租賃使用模式，我也不會(huì)感到驚訝，僅僅是通過分享這塊巨大蛋糕的一小部分，他們就可能實(shí)現(xiàn)大幅度增長(zhǎng)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
That was told about Tesla too
關(guān)于特斯拉（Tesla）也曾有類似的說法。
did they not lower prices and will now have to compete against BYD?
他們不是降價(jià)了嗎，現(xiàn)在還要和比亞迪競(jìng)爭(zhēng)嗎？
most of the startups in AI field are fragile. Upcoming AI integration into the OSes will obliterate most of the startups and the app ecosystem to some extent.
AI領(lǐng)域的大多數(shù)初創(chuàng)企業(yè)都較為脆弱。即將到來的AI與操作系統(tǒng)（OSes）的深度融合將在一定程度上摧毀大部分初創(chuàng)企業(yè)和應(yīng)用程序生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。
A single caution here that when it will get obvious that AI (actually machine learning based on past knowledge and statistical methods) is not so profitable it will repeat fate of any bubble - wins first dropper ;)
這里有一個(gè)需要注意的警告，那就是當(dāng)人們明顯意識(shí)到AI（實(shí)際上是基于過往知識(shí)和統(tǒng)計(jì)方法的機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)）并非如預(yù)期般盈利時(shí)，它將會(huì)重蹈任何泡沫破滅的命運(yùn)——率先退出者將獲勝。
Not sure that it's a "bubble" yet, but tech companies are 100% overselling its current abilities. In my opinion, tech companies are using AI as a cover to continue shedding pandemic overgrowth. They get to keep cutting staff while saying they're pouring resources into the fastest-growing sector to keep investment flowing.
目前尚不確定是否已形成“泡沫”，但科技公司無疑在過分夸大AI當(dāng)前的能力。在我看來，科技公司正在利用AI作為幌子，以繼續(xù)削減疫情期間過度擴(kuò)張的人員規(guī)模。他們一邊裁員，一邊聲稱正將資源投入到增長(zhǎng)最快的領(lǐng)域，以此保持投資流入。
Bubbles are only recognized in hindsight when they pop, by definition.
泡沫的定義本身就包含了事后才能被識(shí)別的特點(diǎn)，即只有當(dāng)它們破裂時(shí)，我們才能確定曾經(jīng)存在過一個(gè)泡沫。
Time to sell nvidia
是時(shí)候賣掉nvidia了
NVDA growing at 80% YOY.. how many years into the future do you think that trend will last?
When people extrapolate into infinity horrible things will usually follow
NVDA的年增長(zhǎng)率高達(dá)80%...你認(rèn)為這種趨勢(shì)還能持續(xù)多少年呢？
當(dāng)人們將趨勢(shì)無限制地外推時(shí)，通常會(huì)導(dǎo)致糟糕的結(jié)果。
People need to look at the dot com bubble and realize you can be right that a certain tech will change the world, but you can also be WAY too early.
人們需要回顧互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫，并認(rèn)識(shí)到盡管你可能準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)見到某種技術(shù)將會(huì)改變世界，但你也可能會(huì)過早地押注。
And also just because AI will change the world doesn’t mean semiconductor companies should be worth trillions of dollars. By that same logic Cisco should be worth trillions from all the internet routers.
同時(shí)，僅僅因?yàn)锳I將會(huì)改變世界，并不意味著半導(dǎo)體公司的市值就應(yīng)該達(dá)到數(shù)萬億美元。按照相同的邏輯，所有互聯(lián)網(wǎng)路由器加起來也應(yīng)該讓思科（Cisco）價(jià)值數(shù)萬億美元。
What is even weirder is that NVDA is 3x the market cap of TSMC while TSMC is the one producing all the chips..
更奇怪的是，盡管臺(tái)積電（TSMC）是生產(chǎn)所有芯片的廠商，但NVDA（英偉達(dá)）的市值卻是臺(tái)積電的三倍。
The money appears to be in design - AMD is another company that stopped making their own chips and focused only on design. It served them well.
However I wonder how the Chips Act will impact this industry in the next 10 years.
資金似乎集中在設(shè)計(jì)環(huán)節(jié)——AMD是另一家停止自主制造芯片、僅專注于設(shè)計(jì)的公司，這一戰(zhàn)略為它們帶來了良好的效益。
然而，我很好奇在未來10年內(nèi)《芯片法案》將如何影響這個(gè)行業(yè)。
That all comes down to what the competition can offer. Nvidia has significant demand and pricing power right now.
這完全取決于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手能提供什么。目前，英偉達(dá)擁有巨大的市場(chǎng)需求和定價(jià)權(quán)。
Internet Bubble of early 2000s Made a lot of billionaires. Broke a lot of people.
2000年代初的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫造就了許多億萬富翁，但也使許多人破產(chǎn)。
Exactly. Picture yourself back then in “the bubble”…what do you do? What was the billionaire vs broke strategy?
確實(shí)如此。設(shè)想一下當(dāng)時(shí)身處“泡沫”之中，你會(huì)怎么做？?jī)|萬富翁和破產(chǎn)者的策略有何不同？
See it as the dot com bubble. Every business putting .com in their name and nothing to do with the web. It burst but companies we know and use today still survived cause they had an actual business.
Same with AI. Lots of shovelware and AI name plaster but there are actual AI businesses out their too
可以將當(dāng)前AI領(lǐng)域的情況比作互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)代。那時(shí)很多公司都在名字里加上.com，但實(shí)際上與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)業(yè)務(wù)并無實(shí)質(zhì)關(guān)系。盡管泡沫最終破滅了，但如今我們所熟知并仍在使用的一些企業(yè)之所以能夠生存下來，是因?yàn)樗鼈兇_實(shí)擁有實(shí)實(shí)在在的商業(yè)模式。
同樣地，在AI領(lǐng)域也存在許多空殼產(chǎn)品和盲目貼上AI標(biāo)簽的現(xiàn)象，但不可否認(rèn)的是，其中也有真正從事AI技術(shù)開發(fā)及應(yīng)用，并具備實(shí)際商業(yè)價(jià)值的企業(yè)。
'94 to '99 was a hell of a ride if you invested well. We are in the 1995 of AI. I expect a bubble pop, but not for a few years.
'94年到'99年間，如果你投資得當(dāng)，那將是一段瘋狂的旅程。我們現(xiàn)在正處于AI發(fā)展的1995年階段。我預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)有一個(gè)泡沫破裂的情況出現(xiàn)，但可能還需要幾年時(shí)間才會(huì)發(fā)生。
Yup same. Were at the beginning and it shows cause i don’t think weve had that one AI company thats makes something actually valuable .
沒錯(cuò)，情況相同。我們現(xiàn)在正處于AI發(fā)展的初期階段，這一點(diǎn)可以從目前還沒有出現(xiàn)一家真正創(chuàng)造出具有極高價(jià)值產(chǎn)品的AI公司這一現(xiàn)象中看出。
I invested in NVDA as soon as I saw ChatGPT a year ago, and later MSFT when I found out they were involved, although I plan to sell my NVDA next year sometime. I saw it as a once-in-a-decade event (like the Internet, iphone, etc).
當(dāng)我一年前看到ChatGPT時(shí)，我立即投資了NVDA（英偉達(dá)），后來發(fā)現(xiàn)微軟（MSFT）也參與其中后，我又追加了投資。不過，我計(jì)劃明年某個(gè)時(shí)候賣出我的NVDA股票。我認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)十年難得一遇的重大事件（就像互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、iPhone等一樣）。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Yeah, I was kind of stupid there when Meta fell into the 80s. I know Pytorch was created by Meta and it's widely use in coding for AI. But I didn't focus on that. All I thought was that Facebook was stupid and I wouldn't want to invest in Facebook. Because of that bias, I totally overlooked Pytorch.
是的，當(dāng)Meta股價(jià)跌至80美元左右時(shí)，我確實(shí)犯了個(gè)傻。我知道Pytorch是由Meta開發(fā)的，并且在AI編程中得到了廣泛應(yīng)用。但我沒有把注意力放在這點(diǎn)上。我當(dāng)時(shí)滿腦子只覺得Facebook沒前途，不值得投資。由于這種偏見，我完全忽視了Pytorch的重要性及其潛在價(jià)值。
They are about to launch more AI products in the coming months. I'm not sure if they are monetizing it well enough, but they are innovating a lot in the space. If they make the right decisions over the next year, they could take over.
他們計(jì)劃在接下來幾個(gè)月內(nèi)推出更多的AI產(chǎn)品。我不確定他們?cè)谟矫媸欠褡龅米銐蚝?，但他們確實(shí)在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行了大量創(chuàng)新。如果在未來一年中做出正確的決策，他們有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)的主導(dǎo)地位。
Nvidia feels like the AI equivalent to the dotcom darling Cisco. It powers many AI applications just like Cisco enabled the internet with their routers and networking gear. But I think ultimately most of the winners in AI will be companies that integrate it into products and services.
英偉達(dá)在AI領(lǐng)域的地位就如同互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)期的寵兒思科。正如思科通過其路由器和網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備推動(dòng)了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的發(fā)展，英偉達(dá)也在為眾多AI應(yīng)用提供動(dòng)力支持。但我認(rèn)為，在人工智能領(lǐng)域最終的贏家很可能是那些將AI成功整合到產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)中的公司。
I don't paint with a broad brush. I would just say look at individual companies. Some companies are up to some pretty interesting things. Other companies might just be using the term AI as a smokescreen.
我不一概而論。我只想說，要仔細(xì)研究各個(gè)公司。有些公司在做一些非常有趣的事情，而其他一些公司可能只是在利用AI這個(gè)術(shù)語作為幌子。
Yes and no. Remember all the blockchain projects? NFTs?
是也不是。回想一下所有區(qū)塊鏈項(xiàng)目，以及NFTs（非同質(zhì)化代幣）吧。
I don't think you can compare NFTs with AI. most of the people knew from the beginning NFT was a scam.
我不認(rèn)為可以將NFT與AI相提并論。大多數(shù)人從一開始就意識(shí)到NFT存在騙局的成分。
Hype is hype
炒作就是炒作。
Now it’s AI, it was EVs, then shitcoins, then bitcoin, 5G, internet of things…etc etc etc
AI is just the favor of the month until proven otherwise.
現(xiàn)在是AI（人工智能），之前是電動(dòng)汽車（EVs），然后是山寨幣、比特幣，再到5G、物聯(lián)網(wǎng)等等。
在被證明并非如此之前，人工智能僅僅是當(dāng)前的熱門焦點(diǎn)。
EVs - many investors have done well in it over the long run, notably Tesla investors. That said the margins on car companies have never been anything like those in tech companies.
Shitcoins, bitcoin - has no useful functionality. Just a medium for pump and dump.
5G - high capex from telecom's companies for barely any revenue growth. Race to the bottom for investors.
AI - already changing the nature of labour and obviously has the potential to make huge efficiency improvements in almost all areas of white collar work and creative work. The potential profit margin on it is very high. Is it due for a pullback? Yeah maybe. Is it comparable to those other scams and bad investments? No.
電動(dòng)汽車（EVs）——從長(zhǎng)期來看，許多投資者在此領(lǐng)域獲得了豐厚回報(bào)，尤其是特斯拉的投資者。然而，汽車公司的利潤(rùn)率歷來無法與科技公司相提并論。
山寨幣、比特幣——它們并無實(shí)際用途，僅作為一種炒作和拋售的媒介存在。
5G——電信公司在幾乎沒有帶來多少收入增長(zhǎng)的情況下投入了大量資本支出，對(duì)于投資者而言，這是一場(chǎng)爭(zhēng)相觸底的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
人工智能（AI）——已經(jīng)在改變勞動(dòng)力的本質(zhì)，并明顯擁有提升幾乎所有白領(lǐng)工作和創(chuàng)造性工作效率的巨大潛力。其潛在的利潤(rùn)空間非常高。是否即將出現(xiàn)回調(diào)？或許有可能。但它是否能與那些騙局和其他不良投資相提并論呢？答案是不能。
Everything you listed did extremely well for early investors. It's early for AI.
你所列舉的所有領(lǐng)域都為早期投資者帶來了極為豐厚的回報(bào)。對(duì)于AI來說，現(xiàn)在還是早期階段。
Yes, but:
1.Not sure how much further you can bend gigacaps with trillion stock; think MSFT can sustain 20% growth? It's already huge.
2.How will AI be capitalized on? Subscxtion software? Licensing fees?
是的，但是：
對(duì)于擁有數(shù)萬億美元市值的超大型公司來說，不確定其股價(jià)還能被推高多少；比如微軟（MSFT），它能否繼續(xù)保持20%的增長(zhǎng)率？畢竟它已經(jīng)是一個(gè)龐然大物了。
關(guān)于如何從AI中獲取收益的問題，會(huì)通過訂閱軟件、授權(quán)費(fèi)用等方式實(shí)現(xiàn)嗎？這仍是一個(gè)有待探討的關(guān)鍵問題。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Yes. Pump and dumps often do that. Doesn’t mean the grand majority stuck around or got acquired for much.
是的，炒作和拋售通常會(huì)帶來短期暴利。但這并不意味著大多數(shù)公司能夠長(zhǎng)期堅(jiān)持下來或以高價(jià)被收購。
And in some cases, they are still doing well.
而在某些情況下，這些公司至今仍表現(xiàn)良好。
In terms of shooting valuations through the roof, yes. There's always a new hype train/bubble. The trick is to ride it and know when enough is enough. Not easy to do.
從估值飆升的角度來看，確實(shí)如此?？倳?huì)出現(xiàn)新的炒作熱潮或泡沫。關(guān)鍵在于要懂得在其中尋找機(jī)會(huì)并知道何時(shí)應(yīng)該適可而止，但這并不容易做到。
Some thoughts about this: https://www.chaotropy.com/stock-market-why-you-might-not-see-an-ai-bubble-once-its-formed/
關(guān)于這篇文章的一些想法：https://www.chaotropy.com/stock-market-why-you-might-not-see-an-ai-bubble-once-its-formed/
Here is what the 2000’s tech boom was:
Sharing information at 0 marginal cost. Think of everything that made possible from maps to stocking shelves and all the efficiencies it generated.
Here is what the AI boom is:
Generation of information at zero marginal cost. We need some time to figure what to do with it. But the lesson corporate America learned from the dot com boom is that if you have a ceo who is proud to not use email your company dies. The hesitation to adopt new technology just isn’t there anymore because those companies died, got cheap enough to be bought out, or eventually adapted.
I forget which companies, but there were a couple that said they held down labor costs using AI for some not insignificant things. Give it another few quarters.
2000年代科技繁榮的核心在于： 以零邊際成本共享信息。這使得地圖、庫存管理等各種應(yīng)用成為可能，并極大地提升了效率。
當(dāng)前人工智能繁榮的關(guān)鍵在于： 以零邊際成本生成信息。我們需要一些時(shí)間來探索如何利用這些信息。但美國(guó)企業(yè)從互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫中學(xué)到的教訓(xùn)是，如果一個(gè)CEO驕傲地宣稱自己不使用電子郵件，那么這家公司很可能會(huì)走向衰亡。如今企業(yè)對(duì)采用新技術(shù)的猶豫已經(jīng)大幅減少，因?yàn)槟切┎辉附邮苄驴萍嫉墓疽雌飘a(chǎn)倒閉，要么被低價(jià)收購，要么最終選擇了適應(yīng)和轉(zhuǎn)型。
我記不清具體是哪些公司了，但有幾家表示他們通過在某些重要領(lǐng)域運(yùn)用AI技術(shù)成功降低了勞動(dòng)力成本。再過幾個(gè)季度，我們將看到更多此類應(yīng)用的實(shí)際效果。
So, do you use Tensorflow, Pytorch, Keras? Or are you running projects with teams doing it? Do you know which companies are serious when they stand on a stage and say "our company is moving into AI" or not? Have you explored the degree to which adding more processing adds more value?
I can't answer that, and I work in software. But what I can see is every CEO standing on a stage saying "AI", every midwit journalist writing about AI that doesn't know the first thing about it. And that's just like what happened with the 2000s tech boom. Lots of garbage, build-to-flip companies marketing terrible ideas, and the odd Amazon and Google amongst them.
所以，你是否使用Tensorflow、Pytorch或Keras？或者你正在與團(tuán)隊(duì)合作運(yùn)行相關(guān)項(xiàng)目？你知道哪些公司在舞臺(tái)上聲稱“我們公司正轉(zhuǎn)向人工智能”時(shí)是認(rèn)真的，哪些不是嗎？你有沒有探索過增加更多處理能力能在多大程度上增加價(jià)值？
我無法回答這個(gè)問題，盡管我從事軟件行業(yè)。但我看到的是每個(gè)CEO在舞臺(tái)上高喊“AI”，每個(gè)對(duì)此一無所知的中庸記者都在撰寫關(guān)于AI的文章。這就像2000年代科技熱潮時(shí)期的情形一樣。大量基于糟糕理念、旨在快速轉(zhuǎn)手的垃圾公司進(jìn)行市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷，而其中偶爾會(huì)出現(xiàn)像亞馬遜和谷歌這樣的優(yōu)秀企業(yè)。
People always say look for the next Amazon. But Amazon and Google and Microsoft right now are the Amazons and Google's of the earlier tech boom.!These cloud providers are developing the models and selling the servers and making the SASS products that every other fortune 500 company will be using for AI. Their insane equity valuations mean they can buy out almost any new competitor in its infancy. This is the justification for the multiples on these stocks.
人們常說要尋找下一個(gè)亞馬遜。但如今的亞馬遜、谷歌和微軟其實(shí)就是先前科技熱潮時(shí)期的“亞馬遜”和“谷歌”！這些云服務(wù)提供商正在開發(fā)模型，銷售服務(wù)器，并制造SaaS產(chǎn)品，而這些產(chǎn)品將被幾乎所有財(cái)富500強(qiáng)公司用于人工智能技術(shù)。他們令人瞠目的股權(quán)估值意味著它們能夠在新生競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手尚處于起步階段時(shí)就將其收購。這正是這些股票高市盈率背后的邏輯依據(jù)。
Lol im working for an “AI” company using pytorch for LLM inferences and all i can say, i dont believe in AI to do anything great outside of a few niches yet. I currently believe that we have to hire people to review the LLM outputs. They get hallucinated too often and only good for tasks that can tolerate some false positives, false negatives without much consequences. I think the current main use case can be for productivity. Ie: quicker searches and more on point for testing - rather than scouring the web at first
Inference scales up computing power with a longer inputs, so without caching, it’s a linear cost growth also.
哈哈，我正在為一家所謂的“AI”公司工作，使用Pytorch進(jìn)行LLM推理，我能說的就是，目前除了少數(shù)特定領(lǐng)域之外，我不相信AI能做出什么偉大的事情。我認(rèn)為我們必須雇人來審查L(zhǎng)LM的輸出結(jié)果。它們常常會(huì)產(chǎn)生錯(cuò)誤的推斷，只適用于那些能夠容忍一定比例假陽性、假陰性結(jié)果且不會(huì)帶來嚴(yán)重后果的任務(wù)。我個(gè)人認(rèn)為當(dāng)前主要的應(yīng)用場(chǎng)景是提高效率，比如：更快捷地搜索信息以及在測(cè)試時(shí)提供更準(zhǔn)確的結(jié)果，而不是一開始就去遍歷整個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
隨著輸入內(nèi)容的增長(zhǎng)，推理過程會(huì)相應(yīng)增加計(jì)算能力需求，如果沒有緩存機(jī)制，其成本將呈現(xiàn)線性增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)。
They get hallucinated too often and only good for tasks that can tolerate some false positives, false negatives without much consequences.
This is something I've generally observed since I started looking at machine learning. It either gets used for very unimportant things, or it is more of an assistant to a person. Which, yes, has some value, but how much?
Like ChatGPT can write some code for me, but it has bugs, or it isn't well-optimised. Doesn't make use of well-known libraries like it should. If I have to fix it, it's mostly saving me some bits of typing. Which honestly just isn't worth that much. And cutting down the errors with better models doesn't really make much difference because I still have to check and fix it.
And the investment thing is companies selling dreams to people. No-one from Microsoft or Oracle is going to say that this has limited value. They want their stock rising.
它們常常產(chǎn)生錯(cuò)誤的推斷，僅適用于那些對(duì)假陽性、假陰性結(jié)果有一定容忍度且不會(huì)帶來嚴(yán)重后果的任務(wù)。這是我從開始研究機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)以來普遍觀察到的現(xiàn)象。它要么被用于非常不重要的事情上，要么更多地充當(dāng)人的輔助工具。雖然確實(shí)有一定的價(jià)值，但實(shí)際價(jià)值有多少呢？
比如ChatGPT可以幫我編寫代碼，但它可能會(huì)有bug，或者不夠優(yōu)化，并未充分利用已知的庫。如果我需要修復(fù)這些問題，它其實(shí)只是節(jié)省了我敲擊鍵盤的一些時(shí)間。老實(shí)說，這一點(diǎn)價(jià)值并不算太大。而且即使通過更好的模型來減少錯(cuò)誤，也不會(huì)帶來實(shí)質(zhì)性的改變，因?yàn)槲胰匀恍枰獧z查和修正這些代碼。
至于投資方面，很多公司都在向人們兜售夢(mèng)想。來自微軟或甲骨文等公司的人都不會(huì)說這項(xiàng)技術(shù)的價(jià)值有限。他們希望股價(jià)上漲。
This is why the next phase and push in Gen AI or LLM is AGI or a "group" of AI agents with specialized tasks. I had that idea, but I'm sure so did millions of other people too.
Basically AI that can monitor and guide other AI to minimize the necessary human component needed currently.
The difference with AI vs. anything else we've seen is that since it's computers / software training or improving other software, the growth is exponentially higher than anything we have witnessed.
Just think about it, AI became the hot topic to mainstream people last year. I know a lot of people who still never even used ChatGPT and barely even understand it but among the industry we went from just chatbots to Cha bots that can read documents, see images and videos, respond back with voice to fully working voice cloning and custom voice profile generation, infinite language translation in the same voice pattern and tone, photo generation and THEN solving the text issue for full graphic design creation in seconds, and we're on like phase 5 of that already and full music generation with vocals too and video generation and we're already in like phase 2 of that. They are now working on real world simulation and being able to teach other AI and robots how to do years of evolution, learning, and training within days to be even more efficient and impactful.
Keep in mind while a lot of this probably has been in the works, we already have WORKING applications for ALL of this in just one year and it still hasn't even been adopted by the majority yet.
By the time it is actually fully adopted by the average person it will be like using LCARS or J.A.R.V.I.S. or asking a genie to create you personal customized content on the fly.
This is like dot com, social media, the industrial age being rolled into one.
Once it becomes a thing, it will be used everyday and will completely change how society operates.
We went from social media not being a thing to some people are addicted and use it daily or even hourly or even in a higher frequency than that. Now imagine how people use social media now but with AI and robots that actually can physically manipulate or create.
這就是為什么在生成式AI或LLM的下一階段和推進(jìn)方向是AGI（通用人工智能）或由具有專門任務(wù)的“群體”AI代理組成的原因。我有過這樣的想法，但我相信也有數(shù)百萬其他人同樣有此想法。
基本上，這是一種能夠監(jiān)控并指導(dǎo)其他AI以盡可能減少當(dāng)前所需人力投入的AI。
與我們所見過的任何其他技術(shù)相比，AI的獨(dú)特之處在于它是通過計(jì)算機(jī)/軟件訓(xùn)練或改進(jìn)其他軟件，其發(fā)展速度比我們已見證過的任何事物都要快得多。
試想一下，AI去年才成為主流人群關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)話題。我知道很多人至今甚至從未使用過ChatGPT，對(duì)其也知之甚少，但在業(yè)內(nèi)，我們已經(jīng)從簡(jiǎn)單的聊天機(jī)器人發(fā)展到了能夠閱讀文檔、查看圖像和視頻、用語音回應(yīng)并實(shí)現(xiàn)完全的語音克隆及定制化語音配置生成、無限語言翻譯且保持相同的語音模式和語調(diào)、照片生成，然后解決了文本問題，能在幾秒鐘內(nèi)完成完整的圖形設(shè)計(jì)創(chuàng)作；同時(shí)，在音樂生成方面，包括人聲部分，以及視頻生成領(lǐng)域，我們也已經(jīng)進(jìn)入第二階段的發(fā)展。現(xiàn)在，研究者正在致力于真實(shí)世界模擬，并教導(dǎo)其他AI和機(jī)器人如何在幾天內(nèi)完成數(shù)年的進(jìn)化、學(xué)習(xí)和訓(xùn)練，從而變得更加高效和有力。
請(qǐng)記住，雖然很多技術(shù)可能已經(jīng)在研發(fā)中，但僅僅一年時(shí)間里，所有這些技術(shù)就已經(jīng)有了可實(shí)際應(yīng)用的產(chǎn)品，而且尚未被大多數(shù)人采用。
等到這項(xiàng)技術(shù)真正被普通人全面采納時(shí)，它的體驗(yàn)將會(huì)像使用科幻片中的LCARS界面、J.A.R.V.I.S.智能助手，或是向精靈許愿實(shí)時(shí)創(chuàng)造個(gè)人定制內(nèi)容一樣神奇。
這就像互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)代、社交媒體時(shí)代和工業(yè)革命時(shí)代的結(jié)合體。
一旦它成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，將被日常使用，并徹底改變社會(huì)運(yùn)作方式。
從社交媒體尚未存在到如今一些人對(duì)其上癮，每日甚至每小時(shí)甚至更高頻率地使用，想象一下人們現(xiàn)在使用社交媒體的方式，如果再加上能進(jìn)行物理操作或創(chuàng)造的AI和機(jī)器人，會(huì)是怎樣一番景象。
All I know is NVDA is selling the shovels
我所知道的是，NVDA在當(dāng)前的AI技術(shù)浪潮中是售賣工具的角色。
So were Sun Microsystems for a while. And then a couple of years later, they weren't.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-were-you-thinking-180823527.html
Sun Microsystems在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)也曾處在這樣的位置。但幾年后，他們就不再是了。
鏈接文章：https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-were-you-thinking-180823527.html
Yes this is why it's a bubble. Certainly won't last forever but AI hype is still going very strong and the need for highly efficient GPU compute isn't letting up anytime soon.
是的，這就是為什么說這是一個(gè)泡沫。當(dāng)然這個(gè)熱潮不會(huì)永久持續(xù)，但AI炒作目前仍然非常猛烈，并且對(duì)高性能GPU計(jì)算能力的需求在短期內(nèi)并無減弱跡象。
I'm not saying I'm smart at all. But I'm not investing in ai and I use ai services.
我并沒有說自己很聰明。只是說我現(xiàn)在并未投資AI領(lǐng)域，但我在日常中確實(shí)會(huì)使用AI服務(wù)。
Yes. The amount of promises being made in the industry VASTLY outnumber the actual deliverables. I work with some of these companies, the claims I see are 90% bullshit; maybe its different with other companies but I doubt it.
In time itll crash (maybe 3 years), then go back to gradual development while it changes the world over the course of decades.
是的，在這個(gè)行業(yè)里，所做出的承諾數(shù)量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了實(shí)際可交付成果。我在與一些此類公司合作時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)，其中90%的聲明都是空話；也許其他公司在這一點(diǎn)上有所不同，但我對(duì)此表示懷疑。
隨著時(shí)間推移，這一熱潮終將會(huì)破滅（可能在3年內(nèi)），然后回歸到漸進(jìn)式發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)，并在數(shù)十年的時(shí)間里逐漸改變世界。
I love how every product is powered by AI or Machine learning.
我確實(shí)很喜歡現(xiàn)在每款產(chǎn)品都宣稱自己是基于AI或機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)技術(shù)驅(qū)動(dòng)的這一現(xiàn)象。
AI is a revolutionary tech on par with computers and internet.
But with the exception of chip (NVDA, AMD, TSMC) and cloud oligopoly (AMZN, MSFT, GOOG), I doubt other companies share price will benefit from it.
There's a lot of open source models so the knowledge is widely dispersed. Its hard to build a proprietary product.
In fact, in racing to incorporate AI into their products, companies may be forced to incur extra expenses just to maintain competitiveness.
Just like today, every company has a website. Website is now required expense not a differentiating factor. Same with AI.
人工智能是一項(xiàng)與計(jì)算機(jī)和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)相提并論的革命性技術(shù)。
但是，除了芯片（NVDA、AMD、TSMC）和云服務(wù)寡頭（AMZN、MSFT、GOOG）之外，我懷疑其他公司的股價(jià)是否能從中受益。
由于存在大量開源模型，相關(guān)知識(shí)已經(jīng)得到了廣泛傳播，因此構(gòu)建專有產(chǎn)品頗具挑戰(zhàn)。
事實(shí)上，在競(jìng)相將AI融入其產(chǎn)品的過程中，企業(yè)可能被迫承擔(dān)額外開支，僅僅是為了保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。
就像現(xiàn)在這樣，每家公司都有網(wǎng)站。網(wǎng)站已經(jīng)成為必需的成本支出，而非區(qū)別于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的獨(dú)特優(yōu)勢(shì)。同樣地，AI也可能會(huì)變成這樣的常規(guī)成本支出，而非競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。
AI is a bubble like the Internet was in a bubble in 1995, and like the iPhone was in a bubble in 2009.
AI就像1995年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)那樣處于泡沫階段，也類似2009年iPhone所經(jīng)歷的泡沫時(shí)期。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
I think AI could replace any job that’s done at a computer especially if it’s repetitive to some degree. Does seem to be able to at least simulate like it’s fluent in the language and I think AI programs could actually be used to design websites and do computer programming the same way they master the English language. AI will be able to chat and generate websites for people based on minimal input. I think AI could also be used to moderate and regulate social media platforms without the use of people or administrators.
我認(rèn)為人工智能能夠取代任何在計(jì)算機(jī)上完成的、尤其是具有一定重復(fù)性的工作。AI似乎至少能模擬出流利的語言表達(dá)能力，我相信AI程序可以像掌握英語那樣用于設(shè)計(jì)網(wǎng)站和進(jìn)行計(jì)算機(jī)編程。AI將能夠基于少量輸入與人們聊天，并自動(dòng)生成網(wǎng)站。同時(shí)，我認(rèn)為AI還可以用于社交媒體平臺(tái)的管理和監(jiān)管工作，無需人工或管理員介入。
The issue will be as it always is, greed. People that missed NVIDA and the other big boys are desperately looking for the next AI stock to go . Eventually it will fall apart and only the real legitimate companies will survive but I suspect over the next 5 years there will be opportunity to make money. Just have to set a limit and sell when appropriate. Most people though will be left holding bags of worthless shit. It's going to be very interesting.....
問題始終如一，那就是貪婪。那些錯(cuò)過英偉達(dá)和其他大公司股票機(jī)會(huì)的人正急切地尋找下一個(gè)有望爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)的AI概念股（用符號(hào)形象地表示其潛力巨大）。最終市場(chǎng)泡沫會(huì)破裂，只有真正有實(shí)力和合法合規(guī)的公司才能生存下來，但我推測(cè)，在接下來的五年里依然會(huì)有賺錢的機(jī)會(huì)。關(guān)鍵在于設(shè)定好止盈止損點(diǎn)，并在適當(dāng)?shù)臅r(shí)候賣出。然而，大多數(shù)投資者可能會(huì)手持一堆毫無價(jià)值的股票而無法脫身。這一過程將會(huì)非常有趣……
Imo no, I agree with everything you said and there will likely be a bubble but this is nothing. Maybe early innings of the bubble.
我的觀點(diǎn)是不完全贊同，雖然我同意您所說的關(guān)于泡沫存在的可能性，并且確實(shí)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)泡沫現(xiàn)象，但現(xiàn)在的情況并不嚴(yán)重。也許這只是泡沫初期階段而已。
Of course it's a bubble. The amount of crap written on the topic of AI is ridiculous at this point, as are the stock narratives / valuations. The tendency to extrapolate a couple years of strong growth well into the distant future never ceases to amaze.
當(dāng)然，這確實(shí)是一個(gè)泡沫。當(dāng)前關(guān)于人工智能話題的大量言論簡(jiǎn)直是荒謬可笑，與此相關(guān)的股票敘事和估值也是如此。人們總是一味地將幾年的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)線性外推至遙遠(yuǎn)的未來，這種傾向令人驚訝不已。
@IHeartLife
When there is a gold rush sell pickaxes when there’s AI hype get in on the good chips
當(dāng)出現(xiàn)淘金熱時(shí)，要出售的是鏟子；而當(dāng)AI熱潮興起時(shí)，則應(yīng)投資于優(yōu)質(zhì)的芯片。
Do you believe it’s not going to be an asset in the foreseeable future?
你認(rèn)為它在未來可預(yù)見的時(shí)期內(nèi)不會(huì)成為一項(xiàng)有價(jià)值的資產(chǎn)嗎？
Not a Bubble.
https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/
Look at the p/es then vs now
NVDA sells as 30x forward earnings, that’s high but not near a boiling point
不是泡沫。
[參考鏈接：https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/]
請(qǐng)查看那時(shí)與現(xiàn)在的市盈率對(duì)比。
NVDA（英偉達(dá)）股票的前瞻性市盈率為30倍，雖然這個(gè)數(shù)字相對(duì)較高，但還未接近沸騰點(diǎn)。
Can it sustain that growth?
它能否持續(xù)保持這樣的增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)呢？
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
AI as a technology is absolutely positively not a bubble.
The market speculation surrounding future profits for business is speculative, therefore possibly a bubble in 10 years.
We’re at the bottom of an exponential increase in machine intelligence. Just getting warmed up for the game. Haven’t even started.
人工智能作為一種技術(shù)絕對(duì)不是泡沫。但是，圍繞企業(yè)未來利潤(rùn)的市場(chǎng)投機(jī)具有一定的投機(jī)性，因此在10年內(nèi)可能存在泡沫風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。目前我們正處于機(jī)器智能指數(shù)級(jí)增長(zhǎng)的早期階段，就像是游戲才剛剛熱身，甚至可以說還未真正開始。
I was working for a startup from 1998 to 2001. There were thousands of them. The Tech Bubble was the entire market.
This is nothing like that. This is a few companies sticking out above the rest over a new technology. I've owned Nvidia and Microsoft for years. I'll own them after this blip, and until the next one.
Cute story: I held stock options worth half a million in 2000. When they vested in 2001, I sold them for $600.
我曾在1998年至2001年為一家初創(chuàng)公司工作。當(dāng)時(shí)有成千上萬的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)，科技泡沫涵蓋了整個(gè)市場(chǎng)。而現(xiàn)在的情況與那時(shí)截然不同，現(xiàn)在只是少數(shù)幾家公司因?yàn)樵谛录夹g(shù)領(lǐng)域領(lǐng)先而脫穎而出。我已經(jīng)持有英偉達(dá)和微軟的股票多年，并且在這次波動(dòng)后仍將繼續(xù)持有，直到下一次轉(zhuǎn)變。
有趣的故事是：我在2000年擁有價(jià)值50萬美元的股票期權(quán)。當(dāng)它們?cè)?001年到期可行使時(shí)，我以600美元的價(jià)格將其賣出。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
No—AI is invaluable to the future economy and can offset labor shortages and streamline supply chain issues/management. Just like every new industry there will be winners and losers, but it is not a bubble.
不，人工智能對(duì)于未來經(jīng)濟(jì)來說是不可或缺的，并且可以抵消勞動(dòng)力短缺問題，優(yōu)化供應(yīng)鏈管理。就像任何新興行業(yè)一樣，會(huì)有贏家和輸家，但它絕不是一個(gè)泡沫。
Doesnt mean it cant be a bubble. The internet revolutionized the world, the stock market was still overvalued as fuck in 2000 resulting in the dot-com bubble
這并不意味著它不可能成為一個(gè)泡沫?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)確實(shí)改變了世界，但在2000年時(shí)股市仍然嚴(yán)重高估，從而導(dǎo)致了 dot-com 泡沫的發(fā)生。
Sure, but I don’t think AI is overvalued in light of the key areas it services. Dot-Com was the convergence of innovation in the communications and commerce space in a 10 year period. The excess that promulgated was simply because every business or trade necessitated the use of these tools and they all came to being within essentially the same time frx (mobile phones, accessible high speed internet, and PayPal/ecommerce). AI is much more of a general integration tool rather than a tool of dominance and its value is far less accessible across the board. Sure, somebody may use it for their resume and some HR firm may implement anti-AI tools, but the real value and focus in the industry is to automate labor in highly mundane-detailed workforces. This is the very thing which the economy is starved for. I’m not talking about the cool sexy AI where we have a robot butler, I’m talking about weapons, tracking, information synergy, and validation of deliveries. This is where the bulk of the AI industry is focused. There is a heavy need for this at a very high level and companies are invested here. AI doesn’t impact the broader consumer market and so too volatility in that market as the Dot Com Bubble—also an era (unlike this) facing a decline in interest rates and a surge in consumer demand. The fed is trying to cool consumer demand at the moment and keeping interest rates high. This increase in pressure helps to keep risky investing at bay.
當(dāng)然，但我認(rèn)為考慮到AI服務(wù)的關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域，它并未被高估?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)泡沫是通信和商業(yè)空間在10年內(nèi)創(chuàng)新融合的結(jié)果，當(dāng)時(shí)所有業(yè)務(wù)或行業(yè)都迫切需要使用這些工具，并且它們幾乎在同一時(shí)間框架內(nèi)迅速涌現(xiàn)（如移動(dòng)電話、可訪問的高速互聯(lián)網(wǎng)以及PayPal/電子商務(wù)）。
相比之下，人工智能更像是一種通用整合工具而非主導(dǎo)性工具，其價(jià)值在整個(gè)行業(yè)內(nèi)遠(yuǎn)沒有那么廣泛易得。確實(shí)，有人可能會(huì)在簡(jiǎn)歷中提到AI技能，一些人力資源公司也可能會(huì)實(shí)施反AI工具，但行業(yè)真正關(guān)注的價(jià)值和焦點(diǎn)在于自動(dòng)化高度繁瑣精細(xì)勞動(dòng)的工作崗位。這是當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)極度渴望的東西。
我談?wù)摰牟皇悄欠N擁有機(jī)器人管家的酷炫性感AI，而是指武器系統(tǒng)、追蹤技術(shù)、信息協(xié)同及交付驗(yàn)證等應(yīng)用。這才是AI產(chǎn)業(yè)集中關(guān)注的核心部分。在高級(jí)別上對(duì)這類AI有著強(qiáng)烈的需求，許多企業(yè)都在這一領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行投資。
與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)期不同的是，AI并未直接影響到廣大消費(fèi)者市場(chǎng)及其波動(dòng)性，那時(shí)正面臨利率下降和消費(fèi)需求激增的時(shí)代。目前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正試圖抑制消費(fèi)者需求，并維持較高利率水平，這種壓力有助于抑制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。
Nasdaq-100 is barely over its ATH from 2021 and everyone thinks we're in a bubble. If you want to compare this to the Dotcom bubble, then we're in the first inning.
納斯達(dá)克100指數(shù)目前僅略高于其2021年的歷史高點(diǎn)，但每個(gè)人都認(rèn)為我們正處于泡沫之中。如果要拿當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)期相比的話，那我們現(xiàn)在可能才剛剛進(jìn)入初級(jí)階段。
No
I wish I had the risk tolerance to go hard on it
IMO it's massively underpriced
It will create a bubble though
Like we're approaching the end of all labor
Wtf does that even mean
I have no idea
I'm a Boglehead but I own some AI stocks on the side despite worse odds statistically
不，我倒希望我能有承受高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力，加大對(duì)它的投資力度。我認(rèn)為AI領(lǐng)域的定價(jià)目前嚴(yán)重偏低。不過它確實(shí)可能會(huì)催生一個(gè)泡沫。
就像我們似乎正走向所有勞動(dòng)的終結(jié)，這到底意味著什么呢？說實(shí)話，我自己也搞不清楚。
雖然從統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)角度來說持有AI股票可能勝算較低，但我還是遵循博格爾投資理念的同時(shí)，持有一些AI相關(guān)的股票作為輔助投資。
Basically yes but the "bubble" could get eaten up if AI has a major break through which it is somewhat likely to do.
基本上是的，但如果AI取得重大突破（這種可能性是存在的），那么這個(gè)“泡沫”可能會(huì)被消化掉。
Most of the companies that are developing AI will not be the ones marketing it. Its too large to centralize. The ones that capitalize on it will mostly be your chain stores and manufactures.
大多數(shù)開發(fā)AI技術(shù)的公司不會(huì)是直接將其推向市場(chǎng)的主體，因?yàn)锳I技術(shù)太過龐大，難以集中由單一實(shí)體進(jìn)行推廣。真正從AI中獲益并利用其優(yōu)勢(shì)的，大部分將是連鎖商店和制造商等企業(yè)。
And who will sell them the models and services? Cloud providers.
那么，誰將向這些企業(yè)出售模型和服務(wù)呢？答案是云服務(wù)提供商。
I do not see a substantial market for subscxtion service. I do see one for devices, toys, manufacturing equipment, maybe even the medical industry. People hate to pay for services, but love buying items.
我認(rèn)為訂閱服務(wù)市場(chǎng)不會(huì)有很大的發(fā)展空間，但我確實(shí)看到在設(shè)備、玩具、制造設(shè)備，甚至是醫(yī)療行業(yè)等領(lǐng)域存在市場(chǎng)需求。人們通常不喜歡為服務(wù)付費(fèi)，但卻熱衷于購買實(shí)物產(chǎn)品。
Depends on the future. The future growth and performance determines if this is a “bubble.” I’m not going to touch it directly but I have large positions in companies like AMZN and META.
Overall since this is the value investing subreddit, I will simply say that when you have companies this (seemingly) expensive, the risk goes up. Again, I use the word seemingly because the stocks may be undervalued if we underestimate the growth of AI. Taking risk into account and my lack of industry knowledge, I am not willing to play AI directly.
這取決于未來的發(fā)展。未來的增長(zhǎng)和表現(xiàn)將決定這是否是一個(gè)“泡沫”。我不會(huì)直接涉足這一領(lǐng)域，但我持有像AMZN（亞馬遜）和META這樣的大公司的大量股份。
總的來說，鑒于這是價(jià)值投資相關(guān)的論壇，我要說的是，當(dāng)公司估值（看似）如此之高時(shí)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也隨之增加。再次強(qiáng)調(diào)，“看似”這個(gè)詞是因?yàn)槿绻覀兊凸懒薃I的增長(zhǎng)潛力，這些股票可能實(shí)際上是被低估的?？紤]到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素以及我自己對(duì)行業(yè)的了解不足，我不愿意直接投資于AI領(lǐng)域。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
yanno, this q has levels. with regard to mega caps, i dont think AI is a bubble at all. But there is a lot of trash out there too.
你知道的，這個(gè)問題有多個(gè)層面。對(duì)于大型公司（巨頭企業(yè)）來說，我認(rèn)為AI并不是一個(gè)泡沫。但同時(shí)市場(chǎng)上確實(shí)也充斥著很多質(zhì)量不高的東西。
AI does have great potential, but it's important to distinguish between the hype surrounding startups and the actual value of established companies driving AI development. It's actually a good move to invest in big companies like Nvidia and cloud services that have a strong foundation for AI. Just be careful not to get too carried away with the excitement and expect endless growth.
人工智能確實(shí)具有巨大的潛力，但重要的是要區(qū)分圍繞初創(chuàng)公司的炒作與實(shí)際推動(dòng)AI發(fā)展的老牌企業(yè)的價(jià)值。投資于像英偉達(dá)這樣在AI領(lǐng)域有堅(jiān)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)的大公司以及云計(jì)算服務(wù)實(shí)際上是一個(gè)明智之舉。不過，要注意不要過于沉迷于興奮之中，期待無止境的增長(zhǎng)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Yes, it's definitely a bubble, when will it pop? Nobody knows. It could last 2 more years... It could end tomorrow.
是的，這確實(shí)是一個(gè)泡沫，但沒人知道它何時(shí)會(huì)破裂。這個(gè)泡沫可能還會(huì)持續(xù)兩年……也可能明天就會(huì)結(jié)束。
Yea its overhyped. Buy companies that want to utilize ai but have other moats. Like buying Microsoft is a pretty good deal because they have tons of good businesses that are not dependent on whether or not ai succeeds.
Ai problem is expectations. People assume this new technology will overthrow everything. As usual with technology, we will find its strength and weaknesses, society will progress with some jobs being eliminated and others being created.
是的，AI確實(shí)被過度炒作。應(yīng)該投資那些打算利用AI但同時(shí)擁有其他競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的公司。比如購買微軟就是一個(gè)相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)的交易，因?yàn)樗麄冇泻芏鄡?yōu)質(zhì)的業(yè)務(wù)并不依賴于AI是否成功。
AI面臨的問題在于人們的過高期待。人們認(rèn)為這種新技術(shù)將顛覆一切。一如往常，隨著技術(shù)的發(fā)展，我們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)它的優(yōu)點(diǎn)和局限性，社會(huì)將會(huì)進(jìn)步，一些工作崗位會(huì)被淘汰，而新的職位也會(huì)隨之產(chǎn)生。
Of course it is ... Internet is the most crazy thing humanity invented and guess what ? 2001 crash.
當(dāng)然，人工智能領(lǐng)域存在泡沫現(xiàn)象?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)是人類發(fā)明的最瘋狂的事物之一，而回想一下2001年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂。
I once heard something along the line of ?we overestimate impact of new technologies in short term but underestimate their impact in the long term”. I think it really is a nice summary of current AI gold rush.
我曾經(jīng)聽到過這樣的觀點(diǎn)：“我們往往高估新技術(shù)在短期內(nèi)的影響，卻低估其在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)的影響?！蔽艺J(rèn)為這恰好是對(duì)當(dāng)前AI熱潮的一個(gè)精辟總結(jié)。
I vote yes. Most of them were trained on copywritten material and nothing they produce can be copywrote according to recent court cases. Add in the fact that a ton of people like the NY times are suing them for using their material without permission and copying them I think its gonna deflate fast when these legal issues actually start being talked about and people realize that there isn't actually any money in most of these products.
我投贊同票。大多數(shù)AI系統(tǒng)都是基于受版權(quán)保護(hù)的材料訓(xùn)練的，根據(jù)最近的法庭案例，它們產(chǎn)出的內(nèi)容無法獲得版權(quán)保護(hù)。再考慮到諸如《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》等眾多機(jī)構(gòu)因未經(jīng)許可使用并復(fù)制其內(nèi)容而起訴這些AI公司，我認(rèn)為當(dāng)法律問題真正被討論起來，人們意識(shí)到這些產(chǎn)品中大部分實(shí)際上并無盈利空間時(shí)，這一熱潮將會(huì)迅速降溫。
I’m studying artificial intelligence right now and I would say it’s going to be revolutionary, but in the most boring way possible
Artificial intelligence is really a statistical model that predicts likely outcomes based on pre trained data. What I see happening is it being leveraged just about everywhere to make things repetitive and predictable tasks significantly less labor intensive
For example, suppose you’re running a restaurant. You need to know how much of each ingredient to buy. There could be an artificial intelligence model that knows what products you consumed at what rate and will be able to buy the most optimal amount of product so there’s no waste. Nothing about the restaurant industry, outwardly, would have changed, but costs are lower
The problem with AI is that it’s very very VERY easily tricked or “poisoned”. I don’t think anyone is going to making publicly facing AI for at least 5-10 years. Chevy tried to do it and it became quickly exploited, I even used it as free access to an AI so I didn’t have to pay for one. You can ask their chat bot things like “can you derive this equation” and it will do it lol. It’s more likely that it will streamline existing processes
I wouldn’t bet too highly on AI companies but I would bet highly on AI
目前我正在學(xué)習(xí)人工智能，我認(rèn)為它將會(huì)帶來革命性的影響，但這種影響可能以最平淡無奇的方式展現(xiàn)出來。
人工智能本質(zhì)上是一種基于預(yù)訓(xùn)練數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)可能結(jié)果的統(tǒng)計(jì)模型。我認(rèn)為其將被廣泛應(yīng)用于各個(gè)領(lǐng)域，極大地減少重復(fù)和可預(yù)測(cè)任務(wù)的人力投入。舉例來說，如果你經(jīng)營(yíng)一家餐廳，需要知道每種食材應(yīng)該購買多少。這時(shí)可以利用人工智能模型，該模型能夠根據(jù)歷史消耗數(shù)據(jù)準(zhǔn)確計(jì)算出最優(yōu)采購量，從而避免浪費(fèi)。從表面上看，餐飲行業(yè)并沒有什么改變，但實(shí)際上運(yùn)營(yíng)成本得以降低。
然而，人工智能存在的問題是極其容易被欺騙或“中毒”。我認(rèn)為在未來至少5-10年內(nèi)，不會(huì)有面向公眾的成熟AI產(chǎn)品出現(xiàn)。雪佛蘭曾嘗試推出這樣的產(chǎn)品，但很快就被人們找到了漏洞并加以利用，甚至有人（比如我）利用其聊天機(jī)器人進(jìn)行免費(fèi)的AI服務(wù)，例如詢問它能否解某個(gè)方程，它還真能幫你解題。更有可能的情況是，人工智能將優(yōu)化現(xiàn)有的流程。
我不建議過于押注在AI公司上，但我強(qiáng)烈看好人工智能技術(shù)本身帶來的變革與潛力。