網(wǎng)友討論:烏克蘭會(huì)像朝鮮和韓國一樣分裂為東烏克蘭和西烏克蘭嗎?
Will Ukraine split into East and West Ukraine like North and South Korea?譯文簡介
Roman Podolyan:當(dāng)克里米亞加入俄羅斯的時(shí)候,烏克蘭已然分裂。
正文翻譯
Will Ukraine split into East and West Ukraine like North and South Korea?
烏克蘭會(huì)像朝鮮和韓國一樣分裂為東烏克蘭和西烏克蘭嗎?
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I think it can, but Eastern parts won’t join Russia.
Ukraine already split up with Crimea joined Russia.
LPR and DPR, separatist enclaves, cooperate with Russia
我認(rèn)為有可能,但東烏克蘭不會(huì)加入俄羅斯。
當(dāng)克里米亞加入俄羅斯的時(shí)候,烏克蘭已然分裂。
盧甘斯克和頓涅茨克,兩塊分離主義飛地,也與俄羅斯有合作。
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If the trend continues, West may finally get tired of it. Especially if non-Western parties gain considerable influence.
即使在靠近烏克蘭中部的城市,親西方的候選人和“ATO 退伍軍人”也輸?shù)袅诉x舉。
如果這種趨勢繼續(xù)下去,西方可能最終會(huì)感到厭倦。特別是如果非西方政黨獲得了相當(dāng)大的影響。
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Myself I don’t think that Ukraine was, is or going to be united. At some point it may split. Eastern parts may not join Russia, but their relationships with Russia will be much better than now
另一方面,除了克里米亞之外,俄羅斯似乎并不想獲得更多的領(lǐng)土/公民。
我自己認(rèn)為烏克蘭過去、現(xiàn)在或?qū)矶疾粫?huì)統(tǒng)一。在某些時(shí)候它可能還會(huì)分裂。東部地區(qū)可能不會(huì)加入俄羅斯,但他們與俄羅斯的關(guān)系會(huì)比現(xiàn)在好得多。
The only thing I would add is that Putin really succeeded in creating new united Ukraine out of very different parts of the country.
Of course he did not want to but credit goes to him.
In general everything guy does is very tactical (not strategic) and nearsighted.
Effects of his actions will be felt by generations of Russians.
Like making really bad enemies out of friends and Slavic brothers and starving Russian economy of any hope of investment.
我唯一要補(bǔ)充的是,普京真的成功地讓這個(gè)國家的不同地區(qū)團(tuán)結(jié)成了一個(gè)新的統(tǒng)一的烏克蘭。
他當(dāng)然不想這樣,但功勞歸于他。
一般來說,這個(gè)人所做的一切都是非常戰(zhàn)術(shù)性的(不是戰(zhàn)略性的)和短視的。
幾代俄羅斯人都會(huì)感受到他行為的影響。
就像把朋友和斯拉夫兄弟變成真正的敵人,并讓俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)失去任何投資的希望一樣。
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Not nearly.
For one, the areas in Eastern Ukraine under pro-Russin control are much smaller than the remaining Ukraine. They used to have denser population, but over a million people have fled that region. The remaining population is less than one tenth of Ukraine's population. In comparison, the two Koreas started as roughly equal in many ways and speaking the same language. As for languages, it is not quite accurate to assume that Eastern Ukraine is entirely Russian speaking. There used to be Ukrainian speaking villages right by the Russian border (I am afraid they have been pounded into oblivion), and many still remain elsewhere in Eastern Ukraine. The city of Mariupol (second largest) has many Ukrainian speakers, whereas even Russian speakers there tend to be pro-Ukraine.
完全不會(huì)。
一方面,親俄勢力控制下的烏克蘭東部地區(qū)比其余的烏克蘭地區(qū)小得多。他們?cè)?jīng)擁有更密集的人口,但已經(jīng)有超過一百萬人逃離了那個(gè)地區(qū)。剩下的人口不到烏克蘭總?cè)丝诘氖种?。相比之下,南北朝鮮一開始在很多方面都大致相同,而且說的是同一種語言。至于語言,假設(shè)烏克蘭東部完全講俄語是不太準(zhǔn)確的。俄羅斯邊境附近曾經(jīng)有說烏克蘭語的村莊(我擔(dān)心他們已經(jīng)被遺忘了),許多這樣的村莊仍然分布于烏克蘭東部的其他區(qū)域。馬里烏波爾市(第二大城市)有許多講烏克蘭語的人,而即使是講俄語的人也傾向于親烏克蘭。
A possible scenario would be Transnistria - a pro-Russian enclave within Moldova. However, it sets a poor example, as its population dropped by half in 20 years, and its economy is a zombie. Transnistria is propped by a Russian army brigade stationed there. But the place is cut from Russia, and Ukraine refused to let supply trains through. So, sooner or later Transnistria will collapse. In contrast, Russia could prevent Eastern Ukraine from getting back to normal for a very long time.
俄羅斯的官方立場是烏克蘭東部必須是烏克蘭的一部分。這件事情是由很多原因?qū)е碌?。俄羅斯想讓烏克蘭稍微遠(yuǎn)離歐盟,讓烏克蘭東部在烏克蘭內(nèi)部發(fā)出聲音是實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)的一種方式。
一種可能的情況是,類似于德涅斯特河沿岸地區(qū)——摩爾多瓦境內(nèi)的一個(gè)親俄飛地。然而,它樹立了一個(gè)糟糕的榜樣,它的人口在 20 年內(nèi)減少了一半,其經(jīng)濟(jì)也發(fā)展的一塌糊涂。德涅斯特河沿岸地區(qū)由駐扎在那里的俄羅斯陸軍旅提供保護(hù)。但是這個(gè)地方被俄羅斯從烏克蘭切割了出去,烏克蘭拒絕讓補(bǔ)給列車通過這里。所以,德涅斯特河沿岸遲早會(huì)崩潰。相比之下,俄羅斯可以在很長一段時(shí)間內(nèi)阻止烏克蘭東部恢復(fù)正常。