The shortage economy

短缺經(jīng)濟(jì)
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處


The world economy’s shortage problem

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的短缺問題

Scarcity has replaced gluts as the biggest impediment to global growth

短缺已代替過剩成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的最大絆腳石


For a decade after the financial crisis the world economy’s problem was a lack of spending. Worried households paid down their debts, governments imposed austerity and wary firms held back investment, especially in physical capacity, while hiring from a seemingly infinite pool of workers. Now spending has come roaring back, as governments have stimulated the economy and consumers let rip. The surge in demand is so powerful that supply is struggling to keep up. Lorry drivers are getting signing bonuses, an armada of container ships is anchored off California waiting for ports to clear and energy prices are spiralling upwards. As rising inflation spooks investors, the gluts of the 2010s have given way to a shortage economy.

在金融危機(jī)結(jié)束后的十年里，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨支出不足的問題。憂心忡忡的家庭償還部分貸款，政府實(shí)施財(cái)政緊縮政策，謹(jǐn)慎的企業(yè)對投資望而卻步，尤其在實(shí)體產(chǎn)能方面，而人力資源似乎用之不竭。如今支出已經(jīng)反彈，因?yàn)楦鲊荚诖碳そ?jīng)濟(jì)，消費(fèi)者在盡情消費(fèi)?？ㄜ囁緳C(jī)正在獲得簽約獎(jiǎng)金，一支集裝箱船隊(duì)停泊在美國加州等待港口清關(guān)，能源價(jià)格不斷攀升。隨著日益加劇的通貨膨脹使投資者感到恐慌，本世紀(jì)10年代的過剩經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)讓位于短缺經(jīng)濟(jì)。

The immediate cause is covid-19. Some $10.4trn of global stimulus has unleashed a furious but lopsided rebound in which consumers are spending more on goods than normal, stretching global supply chains that have been starved of investment. Demand for electronic goods has boomed during the pandemic but a shortage of the microchips inside them has struck industrial production in some exporting economies, such as Taiwan. The spread of the Delta variant has shut down clothing factories in parts of Asia. In the rich world migration is down, stimulus has filled bank accounts and not enough workers fancy shifting from out-of-favour jobs like selling sandwiches in cities to in-demand ones such as warehousing. From Brooklyn to Brisbane, employers are in a mad scramble for extra hands.

直接原因是新冠疫情。全球投入大約10.4萬億美元刺激資金，釋放出劇烈而不平衡的反彈動(dòng)力，消費(fèi)者的支出超出正常水平，給缺少投資的全球供應(yīng)鏈帶來壓力。疫情期間的電子產(chǎn)品需求強(qiáng)勁，但“芯片荒”使某些出口型經(jīng)濟(jì)體的工業(yè)生產(chǎn)遭受打擊，例如臺(tái)灣地區(qū)?！暗聽査倍局甑穆邮箒喼薏糠值貐^(qū)的制衣廠關(guān)閉。在發(fā)達(dá)國家，移民人數(shù)下降，刺激資金填滿了銀行賬戶，在城市里賣三明治這類工作已經(jīng)不吃香，倉庫這類工作需求旺盛，但愿意轉(zhuǎn)行的工作者不多。從布魯克林到布里斯班，老板們都在瘋狂地爭搶額外人手。

Yet the shortage economy is also the product of two deeper forces. First, decarbonisation. The switch from coal to renewable energy has left Europe, and especially Britain, vulnerable to a natural-gas supply panic that at one point this week had sent spot prices up by over 60%. A rising carbon price in the European unx’s emissions-trading scheme has made it hard to switch to other dirty forms of energy. Swathes of China have faced power cuts as some of its provinces scramble to meet strict environmental targets. High prices for shipping and tech components are now triggering increased capital expenditure to expand capacity. But when the world is trying to wean itself off dirty forms of energy, the incentive to make long-lived investments in the fossil-fuel industry is weak.

但是，短缺經(jīng)濟(jì)也是兩股深層力量的產(chǎn)物。首先是去碳化，從煤炭向可再生能源的轉(zhuǎn)變使歐洲，尤其是英國容易對天然氣供應(yīng)產(chǎn)生恐慌，本周實(shí)時(shí)價(jià)格的漲幅一度超過60%。歐盟排放交易體系中的碳價(jià)上漲，這讓歐盟很難改用其他污染型能源。中國有大片地區(qū)面臨斷電，因?yàn)槟承┦》菁庇谶_(dá)成嚴(yán)格的環(huán)境目標(biāo)。運(yùn)輸和技術(shù)部件價(jià)格昂貴，促使企業(yè)通過增加資本支出來擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)能。當(dāng)世界在試圖擺脫污染型能源時(shí)，長期投資化石燃料產(chǎn)業(yè)的動(dòng)力不足。

The second force is protectionism. As our special report explains, trade policy is no longer written with economic efficiency in mind, but in the pursuit of an array of goals, from imposing labour and environmental standards abroad to punishing geopolitical opponents.

第二股力量是保護(hù)主義。正如我們的特別報(bào)道所言，貿(mào)易政策不再以經(jīng)濟(jì)效率為目標(biāo)，而是追求將勞工和環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn)強(qiáng)加于外國和懲罰地緣政治對手等一系列目標(biāo)。

This week Joe Biden’s administration confirmed that it would keep Donald Trump’s tariffs on China, which average 19%, promising only that firms could apply for exemptions (good luck battling the federal bureaucracy). Around the world, economic nationalism is contributing to the shortage economy. Britain’s lack of lorry drivers has been exacerbated by Brexit. India has a coal shortage in part because of a misguided attempt to cut imports of fuel. After years of trade tensions, the flow of cross-border investment by companies has fallen by more than half relative to world gdp since 2015.

本周，美國拜登當(dāng)局確認(rèn)，維持特朗普對中國商品征收的平均19%關(guān)稅，只是承諾企業(yè)可以申請免稅（與聯(lián)邦官僚機(jī)制相抗?fàn)?，祝你好運(yùn)）。全世界盛行的經(jīng)濟(jì)民族主義正在導(dǎo)致短缺經(jīng)濟(jì)，英國卡車司機(jī)的短缺因“脫歐”而加劇，印度煤炭短缺的部分原因是盲目削減燃料進(jìn)口。經(jīng)過多年的貿(mào)易緊張局勢后，自2015年以來的企業(yè)跨境投資額相對世界GDP下降了一半以上。

All this might seem eerily reminiscent of the 1970s, when many places faced petrol-pump queues, double-digit price rises and sluggish growth. But the comparison gets you only so far. Half a century ago politicians got economic policy badly wrong, fighting inflation with futile measures like price controls and Gerald Ford’s “whip inflation now” campaign, which urged people to grow their own vegetables. Today the Federal Reserve is debating how to forecast inflation, but there is a consensus that central banks have the power and the duty to keep it in check.

這一切可能使人回想起上世紀(jì)70年代的可怕情景，當(dāng)時(shí)有許多地方出現(xiàn)加油站排隊(duì)、物價(jià)兩位數(shù)攀升、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長緩慢。但與當(dāng)今不可相提并論，半個(gè)世紀(jì)前的政客推行極其錯(cuò)誤的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，采取徒勞的抑制通貨膨脹措施，諸如價(jià)格管制，杰拉爾德·福特的“立即制止通貨膨脹”運(yùn)動(dòng)，敦促人們自己種植蔬菜。如今美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在如何預(yù)測通貨膨脹方面存在爭論，但共識(shí)是央行有能力有責(zé)任抑制通貨膨脹。

For now, out-of-control inflation seems unlikely. Energy prices should ease after the winter. In the next year the spread of vaccines and new treatments for covid-19 should reduce disruptions. Consumers may spend more on services. Fiscal stimulus will wind down in 2022: Mr Biden is struggling to get his jumbo spending bills through Congress and Britain plans to raise taxes. The risk of a housing bust in China means that demand could even fall, restoring the sluggish conditions of the 2010s. And an investment boost in some industries will eventually translate into more capacity and higher productivity.

當(dāng)前的通貨膨脹不太可能失控。能源價(jià)格在冬季結(jié)束后應(yīng)該會(huì)回落，明年新冠疫苗和新療法的普及能減少混亂，消費(fèi)者可能在服務(wù)上花費(fèi)更多。財(cái)政刺激將在2022年逐漸停止：拜登先生正努力讓他的巨額支出法案在國會(huì)獲得通過，英國計(jì)劃增稅。中國樓市崩盤的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意味著需求可能下降，重回本世紀(jì)10年代的不景氣狀況。某些行業(yè)的投資增長終將轉(zhuǎn)化為更多的產(chǎn)能和更高的生產(chǎn)率。

But make no mistake, the deeper forces behind the shortage economy are not going away and politicians could easily end up with dangerously wrong-headed policies. One day, technologies such as hydrogen should help make green power more reliable. But that will not plug shortages right now. As fuel and electricity costs rise, there could be a backlash. If governments do not ensure that there are adequate green alternatives to fossil fuels, they may have to meet shortages by relaxing emissions targets and lurching back to dirtier sources of energy. Governments will therefore have to plan carefully to cope with the higher energy costs and slower growth that will result from eliminating emissions. Pretending that decarbonisation will result in a miraculous economic boom is bound to lead to disappointment.

但是別誤會(huì)，短缺經(jīng)濟(jì)背后的深層力量不會(huì)消失，政客可能容易推行危險(xiǎn)的錯(cuò)誤政策?？傆幸惶?，氫等技術(shù)能使綠色能源更加可靠，但無法解決目前的短缺問題。燃料和電力成本上漲可能引起反彈，如果政府無法確保有足夠的綠色能源替代化石燃料，可能只能通過放寬排放目標(biāo)和重新使用污染型能源來解決短缺問題。因此，政府必須謹(jǐn)慎計(jì)劃如何應(yīng)對能源成本上漲和杜絕排放所導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，自以為去碳化將帶來奇跡般的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮是注定要失望的。

The shortage economy could also reinforce the appeal of protectionism and state intervention. Many voters blame empty shelves and energy crises on the government. Politicians can escape responsibility by excoriating fickle foreigners and fragile supply chains, and by talking up the false promise of boosting self-reliance. Britain has already bailed out a fertiliser plant to maintain the supply of carbon dioxide, an input for the food industry. The government is trying to claim that labour shortages are good, because they will raise economy-wide wages and productivity. In reality, putting up barriers to migration and trade will, on average, cause both to fall.

短缺經(jīng)濟(jì)也會(huì)增強(qiáng)保護(hù)主義和國家干預(yù)的吸引力。許多選民把貨架空空和能源危機(jī)歸咎于政府，政客可以指責(zé)反復(fù)無常的外國人和脆弱的供應(yīng)鏈，宣揚(yáng)自力更生這種虛假承諾，以此來逃避責(zé)任。英國已經(jīng)幫助一家化肥廠擺脫困境，以確保食品產(chǎn)業(yè)所需的二氧化碳供應(yīng)。政府試圖宣揚(yáng)勞動(dòng)力短缺是好事，因?yàn)檫@能提高整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的工資水平和生產(chǎn)效率。事實(shí)上，設(shè)立移民和貿(mào)易壁壘通常使兩者下降。

The wrong lessons at the wrong time

錯(cuò)誤的時(shí)間得出錯(cuò)誤的教訓(xùn)

Disruptions often lead people to question economic orthodoxies. The trauma of the 1970s led to a welcome rejection of big government and crude Keynesianism. The risk now is that strains in the economy lead to a repudiation of decarbonisation and globalisation, with devastating long-term consequences. That is the real threat posed by the shortage economy.

混亂往往使人質(zhì)疑正統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。上世紀(jì)70年代的創(chuàng)傷導(dǎo)致大政府和粗糙的凱恩斯主義被欣然拋棄?，F(xiàn)在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力導(dǎo)致去碳化和全球化被拋棄，造成長遠(yuǎn)的毀滅性后果，這才是短缺經(jīng)濟(jì)構(gòu)成的真正威脅。