帕特里克 · 布坎南:黯然失色的歐洲
The Eclipse Of Europe譯文簡(jiǎn)介
不僅僅是政治重心從歐洲轉(zhuǎn)移到了亞洲,歐洲的統(tǒng)一也似乎成為了過去。
帕特里克 · 布坎南
正文翻譯
For centuries up to and including the 20th, Europe seemed the central pivot of world history. Then came the Great Civil War of the West, our Thirty Years’ War (1914-1945), where all of the great European powers—Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Russia—along with almost all of the rest, fought some of history’s greatest battles.
Result: Europe’s greatest nations were all bloodied. All of Europe’s empires fell. The colonial peoples were all largely liberated and began the great migration to the mother countries. And Europe was split between a U.S.-led West and a Moscow-dominated Soviet bloc.
在包括20世紀(jì)在內(nèi)的幾個(gè)世紀(jì)里,歐洲一直是世界歷史的中心,然后,西方的大內(nèi)戰(zhàn)來了,我們的三十年戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)(1914-1945) ,所有的歐洲大國(guó)——英國(guó)、法國(guó)、德國(guó)、意大利、俄羅斯,連同幾乎所有其它國(guó)家,經(jīng)歷了一些人類歷史上最大的戰(zhàn)事。
結(jié)果:歐洲最偉大的國(guó)家都陷入了血腥的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)之中,歐洲所有的帝國(guó)都垮臺(tái)了,殖民地人民大部分獲得解放,并開始向母國(guó)大規(guī)模移民,歐洲分裂成以美國(guó)為首的西方和以莫斯科為首的蘇聯(lián)集團(tuán)。
Yet, even during that four-decade Cold War, Europe was viewed as the prize in the struggle. By the time that Cold War ended in triumph for the Free World, a European unx modeled on the American unx was rising, and almost all of Europe’s newly freed nations began to join the NATO alliance.
Yet one senses today that Europe’s role in world history is passing, that the American pivot to China and the Indo-Pacific is both historic and permanent, and that as the past belongs to Europe, the future belongs to Asia.
即使在長(zhǎng)達(dá)四十年的冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)期,歐洲仍被視為這場(chǎng)斗爭(zhēng)的戰(zhàn)利品,當(dāng)冷戰(zhàn)以自由世界的勝利而結(jié)束時(shí),一個(gè)以美國(guó)聯(lián)盟為藍(lán)本的歐洲聯(lián)盟崛起,幾乎所有新獲得自由的歐洲國(guó)家開始加入北約聯(lián)盟。
然而,如今人們感覺到,歐洲在世界歷史上的角色正在消失,美國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)向中國(guó)和印度洋-太平洋地區(qū)的戰(zhàn)略既具有歷史意義,也是永久性的,過去屬于歐洲,而未來屬于亞洲。
Yet one senses today that Europe’s role in world history is passing, that the American pivot to China and the Indo-Pacific is both historic and permanent, and that as the past belongs to Europe, the future belongs to Asia.
即使在長(zhǎng)達(dá)四十年的冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)期,歐洲仍被視為這場(chǎng)斗爭(zhēng)的戰(zhàn)利品,當(dāng)冷戰(zhàn)以自由世界的勝利而結(jié)束時(shí),一個(gè)以美國(guó)聯(lián)盟為藍(lán)本的歐洲聯(lián)盟崛起,幾乎所有新獲得自由的歐洲國(guó)家開始加入北約聯(lián)盟。
然而,如今人們感覺到,歐洲在世界歷史上的角色正在消失,美國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)向中國(guó)和印度洋-太平洋地區(qū)的戰(zhàn)略既具有歷史意義,也是永久性的,過去屬于歐洲,而未來屬于亞洲。
Asia, after all, is home to the world’s most populous nations, China and India; to six of the world’s nine nuclear powers; and to almost all of its major Muslim nations: Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey and Iran, as well as to the world’s largest economies outside the USA: China and Japan.
And Europe?
畢竟,亞洲擁有世界上人口最多的國(guó)家——中國(guó)和印度,擁有世界上9個(gè)核大國(guó)中的6個(gè),以及幾乎所有主要的穆斯林國(guó)家: 印度尼西亞、印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉國(guó)、土耳其和伊朗,以及除美國(guó)以外的世界最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體: 中國(guó)和日本。
那歐洲呢?
And Europe?
畢竟,亞洲擁有世界上人口最多的國(guó)家——中國(guó)和印度,擁有世界上9個(gè)核大國(guó)中的6個(gè),以及幾乎所有主要的穆斯林國(guó)家: 印度尼西亞、印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉國(guó)、土耳其和伊朗,以及除美國(guó)以外的世界最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體: 中國(guó)和日本。
那歐洲呢?
In 2016, Great Britain voted to withdraw from the E.U. This summer, the British joined the Australians and the U.S. in an AUKUS pact that trashed a cherished French deal to build a dozen diesel-powered submarines—and to replace them with British- and U.S.-built nuclear-power subs. Paris saw this as a “betrayal,” a “stab in the back” by allies whom Gen. Charles De Gaulle had disparaged as “l(fā)es Anglo-Saxons.” Yet AUKUS was also an undeniably clear statement as to where the Australians saw their future, and it was not alongside France, but the USA.
2016年,英國(guó)投票退出歐盟,今年夏天,英國(guó)加入了澳大利亞和美國(guó)的行列,簽署了一項(xiàng) AUKUS 協(xié)定,否決了一項(xiàng)備受重視的法國(guó)協(xié)議(該協(xié)議旨在建造12艘柴油動(dòng)力潛艇),并用英國(guó)和美國(guó)建造的核動(dòng)力潛艇取而代之,巴黎方面認(rèn)為這是一種“背叛”,一種盟友的“背刺”,夏爾 · 戴高樂將軍曾貶損這些盟友為“盎撒人”,然而,AUKUS 也是一個(gè)不可否認(rèn)的清晰聲明,表明澳大利亞人自何處來看他們的未來,不在法國(guó),而在美國(guó)。
2016年,英國(guó)投票退出歐盟,今年夏天,英國(guó)加入了澳大利亞和美國(guó)的行列,簽署了一項(xiàng) AUKUS 協(xié)定,否決了一項(xiàng)備受重視的法國(guó)協(xié)議(該協(xié)議旨在建造12艘柴油動(dòng)力潛艇),并用英國(guó)和美國(guó)建造的核動(dòng)力潛艇取而代之,巴黎方面認(rèn)為這是一種“背叛”,一種盟友的“背刺”,夏爾 · 戴高樂將軍曾貶損這些盟友為“盎撒人”,然而,AUKUS 也是一個(gè)不可否認(rèn)的清晰聲明,表明澳大利亞人自何處來看他們的未來,不在法國(guó),而在美國(guó)。
Still, this was the worst U.S. affront of our French ally since President Dwight Eisenhower ordered the British and French out of Suez. But, at least then, Ike could say in 1956 that he had not been alxed to the British-French invasion of Egypt and that our NATO partners had acted without his knowledge or consent.
盡管如此,這仍然是自艾森豪威爾總統(tǒng)命令英國(guó)和法國(guó)離開蘇伊士以來對(duì)我們的法國(guó)盟友最嚴(yán)重的侮辱,但是,至少在那時(shí)艾森豪威爾可以說,1956年他沒有收到英法入侵埃及的警報(bào),我們的北約伙伴在他不知情或未經(jīng)他同意的情況下采取了行動(dòng)。
盡管如此,這仍然是自艾森豪威爾總統(tǒng)命令英國(guó)和法國(guó)離開蘇伊士以來對(duì)我們的法國(guó)盟友最嚴(yán)重的侮辱,但是,至少在那時(shí)艾森豪威爾可以說,1956年他沒有收到英法入侵埃及的警報(bào),我們的北約伙伴在他不知情或未經(jīng)他同意的情況下采取了行動(dòng)。
To protest the treatment of France in the submarine deal, President Emmanuel Macron recalled his ambassador to the U.S., something that had never been done since France recognized the American colonies and came to their aid during our War of Independence.Indeed, the submarine agreement forced cancellation of a grand party at the French embassy in Washington, D.C., to celebrate the 240th anniversary of the Battle of the Capes.
This was the critical British-French naval battle at the mouth of the Chesapeake in 1781, where a French fleet prevailed, enabling it to provide Gen. George Washington’s army cover as it surrounded, shelled and compelled the surrender of Gen. Lord Cornwallis’ army at Yorktown.
為了抗議法國(guó)在潛艇交易中受到的待遇,埃馬紐埃爾 · 馬克龍總統(tǒng)召回了他的駐美大使,這是自從法國(guó)承認(rèn)殖民地美國(guó)的地位并在我們的獨(dú)立戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)期間向美國(guó)提供援助以來從未有過的事。
事實(shí)上,這項(xiàng)潛艇協(xié)議迫使法國(guó)駐華盛頓大使館取消了一場(chǎng)慶?!扒兴_皮克灣戰(zhàn)役”240周年的盛大派對(duì)。
這是1781年發(fā)生在切薩皮克河口的一場(chǎng)關(guān)鍵性的英法海戰(zhàn),當(dāng)時(shí)法國(guó)艦隊(duì)占了上風(fēng),使其能夠?yàn)閱讨?· 華盛頓將軍的軍隊(duì)提供掩護(hù),包圍、炮擊并迫使康沃利斯將軍的軍隊(duì)在約克敦投降。
This was the critical British-French naval battle at the mouth of the Chesapeake in 1781, where a French fleet prevailed, enabling it to provide Gen. George Washington’s army cover as it surrounded, shelled and compelled the surrender of Gen. Lord Cornwallis’ army at Yorktown.
為了抗議法國(guó)在潛艇交易中受到的待遇,埃馬紐埃爾 · 馬克龍總統(tǒng)召回了他的駐美大使,這是自從法國(guó)承認(rèn)殖民地美國(guó)的地位并在我們的獨(dú)立戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)期間向美國(guó)提供援助以來從未有過的事。
事實(shí)上,這項(xiàng)潛艇協(xié)議迫使法國(guó)駐華盛頓大使館取消了一場(chǎng)慶?!扒兴_皮克灣戰(zhàn)役”240周年的盛大派對(duì)。
這是1781年發(fā)生在切薩皮克河口的一場(chǎng)關(guān)鍵性的英法海戰(zhàn),當(dāng)時(shí)法國(guó)艦隊(duì)占了上風(fēng),使其能夠?yàn)閱讨?· 華盛頓將軍的軍隊(duì)提供掩護(hù),包圍、炮擊并迫使康沃利斯將軍的軍隊(duì)在約克敦投降。
But if the British are out of the E.U., and the French are estranged from their NATO allies, Germany yesterday held an election, where, for the first time in its history, the Christian Democratic unx of Konrad Adenauer, Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel was reduced to a fourth of the national vote.
The new leader of Germany, after months of negotiations, may be the leader of the Social Democrats, in concert with the Greens. But even that government may not be cobbled together by Christmas. Neither of the prospective chancellors for the Christian Democratic unx or the Social Democratic Party has the stature of Merkel, who has been both leader of Germany for the last decade and a half but also de facto leader of Europe.
英國(guó)退出歐盟,法國(guó)與其北約盟友疏遠(yuǎn),德國(guó)昨天舉行了選舉,康拉德 · 阿登納,赫爾穆特 · 科爾和安格拉 · 默克爾組成的基督教民主聯(lián)盟的選票在其歷史上第一次被削減到僅有全國(guó)選票的四分之一。經(jīng)過幾個(gè)月的談判,德國(guó)的新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人可能會(huì)是社會(huì)民主黨的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人,并與綠黨共同合作,其政府也不一定能在圣誕節(jié)前拼湊完成,基督教民主聯(lián)盟和社會(huì)民主黨未來的總理都沒有默克爾那樣的地位,默克爾在過去的15年里一直是德國(guó)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人,但同時(shí)也是歐洲事實(shí)上的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。
The new leader of Germany, after months of negotiations, may be the leader of the Social Democrats, in concert with the Greens. But even that government may not be cobbled together by Christmas. Neither of the prospective chancellors for the Christian Democratic unx or the Social Democratic Party has the stature of Merkel, who has been both leader of Germany for the last decade and a half but also de facto leader of Europe.
英國(guó)退出歐盟,法國(guó)與其北約盟友疏遠(yuǎn),德國(guó)昨天舉行了選舉,康拉德 · 阿登納,赫爾穆特 · 科爾和安格拉 · 默克爾組成的基督教民主聯(lián)盟的選票在其歷史上第一次被削減到僅有全國(guó)選票的四分之一。經(jīng)過幾個(gè)月的談判,德國(guó)的新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人可能會(huì)是社會(huì)民主黨的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人,并與綠黨共同合作,其政府也不一定能在圣誕節(jié)前拼湊完成,基督教民主聯(lián)盟和社會(huì)民主黨未來的總理都沒有默克爾那樣的地位,默克爾在過去的15年里一直是德國(guó)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人,但同時(shí)也是歐洲事實(shí)上的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。
And consider the present condition of NATO, once celebrated as the most successful alliance in history for having deterred any Soviet invasion of NATO Europe for the entire Cold War.
In 2001, invoking Article V about an attack on one being an attack on all, NATO joined the Americans in their plunge into Afghanistan to deal with the perpetrators of 9/11. This August, 20 years later, all our NATO allies pulled out as the Afghan army crumbled and vanished and the Afghan regime collapsed. Our NATO allies thus shared in the ignominy of the American retreat and defeat.
再想想北約的現(xiàn)狀,北約曾因在整個(gè)冷戰(zhàn)期間阻止了蘇聯(lián)對(duì)北約歐洲的入侵而被譽(yù)為歷史上最成功的聯(lián)盟。
2001年,北約援引第五條,稱對(duì)一國(guó)的攻擊是對(duì)所有國(guó)家的攻擊,與美國(guó)一起投入阿富汗戰(zhàn)場(chǎng),共同對(duì)付911事件的肇事者,20年后的今天,今年的8月份,隨著阿富汗軍隊(duì)的潰敗和阿富汗政權(quán)的垮臺(tái),我們所有的北約盟國(guó)都撤出了阿富汗,我們的北約盟國(guó)也因此“分享”了美國(guó)撤退和失敗的恥辱。
In 2001, invoking Article V about an attack on one being an attack on all, NATO joined the Americans in their plunge into Afghanistan to deal with the perpetrators of 9/11. This August, 20 years later, all our NATO allies pulled out as the Afghan army crumbled and vanished and the Afghan regime collapsed. Our NATO allies thus shared in the ignominy of the American retreat and defeat.
再想想北約的現(xiàn)狀,北約曾因在整個(gè)冷戰(zhàn)期間阻止了蘇聯(lián)對(duì)北約歐洲的入侵而被譽(yù)為歷史上最成功的聯(lián)盟。
2001年,北約援引第五條,稱對(duì)一國(guó)的攻擊是對(duì)所有國(guó)家的攻擊,與美國(guó)一起投入阿富汗戰(zhàn)場(chǎng),共同對(duì)付911事件的肇事者,20年后的今天,今年的8月份,隨著阿富汗軍隊(duì)的潰敗和阿富汗政權(quán)的垮臺(tái),我們所有的北約盟國(guó)都撤出了阿富汗,我們的北約盟國(guó)也因此“分享”了美國(guó)撤退和失敗的恥辱。
Not only is the center of political gravity shifting from Europe to Asia, European unity seems a thing of the past.
As Britain has left the E.U., Scotland is considering secession from England. Catalonia is still thinking of secession from Spain. Sardinia is considering secession from Italy. Poland and Hungary are at odds with the E.U. over domestic political reforms said to be in conflict with the demands of the bureaucrats in Brussels.
As for the southern-tier E.U. and NATO nations, Spain, Italy and Greece, their main concern is less an invasion by Russia than the ongoing invasion from across the Mediterranean from Africa and the Middle East.
不僅僅是政治重心從歐洲轉(zhuǎn)移到了亞洲,歐洲的團(tuán)結(jié)也似乎成為了過去。
隨著英國(guó)脫離歐盟,蘇格蘭正在考慮脫離英格蘭,加泰羅尼亞仍在考慮脫離西班牙,撒丁島正在考慮脫離意大利,波蘭和匈牙利與歐盟在國(guó)內(nèi)政治改革上存在分歧,據(jù)說這與布魯塞爾的官僚們的要求相沖突。
至于歐盟和北約的南部國(guó)家,西班牙、意大利和希臘,他們主要關(guān)心的與其說是俄羅斯的入侵,不如說是來自非洲和中東穿越地中海的持續(xù)入侵。
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
As Britain has left the E.U., Scotland is considering secession from England. Catalonia is still thinking of secession from Spain. Sardinia is considering secession from Italy. Poland and Hungary are at odds with the E.U. over domestic political reforms said to be in conflict with the demands of the bureaucrats in Brussels.
As for the southern-tier E.U. and NATO nations, Spain, Italy and Greece, their main concern is less an invasion by Russia than the ongoing invasion from across the Mediterranean from Africa and the Middle East.
不僅僅是政治重心從歐洲轉(zhuǎn)移到了亞洲,歐洲的團(tuán)結(jié)也似乎成為了過去。
隨著英國(guó)脫離歐盟,蘇格蘭正在考慮脫離英格蘭,加泰羅尼亞仍在考慮脫離西班牙,撒丁島正在考慮脫離意大利,波蘭和匈牙利與歐盟在國(guó)內(nèi)政治改革上存在分歧,據(jù)說這與布魯塞爾的官僚們的要求相沖突。
至于歐盟和北約的南部國(guó)家,西班牙、意大利和希臘,他們主要關(guān)心的與其說是俄羅斯的入侵,不如說是來自非洲和中東穿越地中海的持續(xù)入侵。
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://nxnpts.cn 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of Nixon’s White House Wars: The Battles That Made and Broke a President and Divided America Forever and a founding editor of The American Conservative.
帕特里克 · J · 布坎南是《尼克松的白宮戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng): 一場(chǎng)造就和毀掉一位總統(tǒng)并使美國(guó)永遠(yuǎn)分裂的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)》一書的作者,也是《美國(guó)保守派》的創(chuàng)始編輯。
帕特里克 · J · 布坎南是《尼克松的白宮戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng): 一場(chǎng)造就和毀掉一位總統(tǒng)并使美國(guó)永遠(yuǎn)分裂的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)》一書的作者,也是《美國(guó)保守派》的創(chuàng)始編輯。
評(píng)論翻譯
很贊 ( 5 )
收藏
Europe had its moment in the sun, but it's time has passed. Due to a combination of factors, both internal and external, Europe rose to global primacy over a period of approximately two centuries (16th and 17th centuries) and maintained their global primacy for approximately a century and a half, After which the decline and fall of their global dominance occurred rapidly within several decades, because of the epic global wars.
Thing is Europe's domination was quite frankly a historical anomaly. In 6500 years of recorded human history, man has lived for nearly all that time in a mult-polar world. In Mesopotamia it was a world of city-states and regional empires (e.g, two or three rival empires in Mesopotamia). Later when rival or contemporary civilizations emerged elsewhere, and empires rose to dominate or unite those civilizations, there were always other civilizations that were independent of said empires and there were often another empire (sometimes two other empires) of more or less equal power.
In fact for most of China's recorded 3500 year history (not counting the semi-legendary Xia dynastic period), not only has their civilization been one of the world's leading civilizations but at different periods of human history it was the greatest on Earth. Likewise from the start of China's recorded history, China has been ruled by empires for the great majority of its existence, most of which ranked among the great powers of their time and several which were for a time the superpowers of their time. When it came to science (or pre-modern science), technology, and engineering they were likewise leaders for most of their history, rivals of the Greeks and Roman's (with the former ahead in some fields, and China ahead in others), or they had no equal (both the Dark Ages and the Middle Ages).
Therefore what we are witnessing is a return to the more or less historical norm. As in a multi-polar world, that has multiple economic, military, cultural, and geopolitical centers of power, and except for the United States, none are part of Western civilization and none are in Europe (not including the Eurasian state of Russia). Likewise what is arguably the world's oldest contiguous civilization (the Chinese civilization - 3500 years), and perhaps the oldest contiguous polity (the state of China - 2,200 years) has been rising for decades and continues to rise, steadily regaining its historical place in both the Far East and Central Asia. While nothing is guaranteed, the odds are extremely good that not only will China end up dominating the Far East (and maybe Central Asia), but in a multi-polar world it may end up becoming the leading center or at least in 2nd position after the United States (if the latter continues to be a power).
歐洲曾經(jīng)有過輝煌的時(shí)刻,但它的時(shí)代已經(jīng)過去了。
由于內(nèi)部和外部因素的綜合作用,歐洲在大約兩個(gè)世紀(jì) (16世紀(jì)和17世紀(jì)) 的時(shí)間里崛起為全球第一,并在大約一個(gè)半世紀(jì)里保持其全球首要地位,之后由于史詩般的全球戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng),其全球主導(dǎo)地位在幾十年內(nèi)迅速衰落。
實(shí)際上,歐洲的統(tǒng)治地位完全是歷史上的反?,F(xiàn)象。
在有記載的6500年人類歷史中,人類幾乎一直生活在多極世界之中,美索不達(dá)米亞時(shí)代就是一個(gè)城邦和地區(qū)性帝國(guó)的世界(例如,有兩三個(gè)與美索不達(dá)米亞相抗衡的帝國(guó)),后來,當(dāng)敵對(duì)或同代文明在其他地方出現(xiàn),即使帝國(guó)崛起以統(tǒng)治或統(tǒng)一這些文明時(shí),總會(huì)有其他文明獨(dú)立于所述帝國(guó),而且往往還有另一個(gè)或多或少勢(shì)均力敵的帝國(guó) (有時(shí)是另外兩個(gè)帝國(guó))。
事實(shí)上,在中國(guó)有記載的3500年歷史中 (不包括半傳說性的夏朝時(shí)期) ,中國(guó)不僅是世界上最主要的文明之一,而且在人類歷史的各個(gè)不同時(shí)期都是世界上最偉大的文明。
同樣,從中國(guó)有記載的歷史開始,中國(guó)大部分時(shí)間都是由帝國(guó)統(tǒng)治的,其中大部分都是當(dāng)時(shí)的強(qiáng)國(guó),有幾個(gè)曾經(jīng)是當(dāng)時(shí)的超級(jí)大國(guó)。談及科學(xué) (或前現(xiàn)代科學(xué))、技術(shù)和工程,他們?cè)诖蟛糠謿v史時(shí)期同樣都是領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,是希臘人和羅馬人的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手 ( 前者在某些領(lǐng)域領(lǐng)先,而中國(guó)在其他領(lǐng)域領(lǐng)先) ,或者他們沒有對(duì)手 ( 黑暗時(shí)代和中世紀(jì))。
因此,我們正在目睹的是一種或多或少回歸到歷史常態(tài)的現(xiàn)象。
正如在一個(gè)多極化的世界中,會(huì)有多個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)、軍事、文化和地緣政治權(quán)力中心,當(dāng)下的幾極除了美國(guó),沒有一個(gè)是西方文明的一部分,也沒有一個(gè)位于歐洲 (不包括歐亞國(guó)家俄羅斯),中國(guó)可以說是世界上最古老的不間斷文明 ( 中華文明,3500年歷史) ,也可能是最古老的不間斷政體 (中國(guó),2200年歷史),中國(guó)已經(jīng)崛起了幾十年,并繼續(xù)崛起,穩(wěn)步重新獲得其在遠(yuǎn)東和中亞的歷史地位。
雖然沒有什么是確定無疑的,但中國(guó)不僅最終會(huì)主宰遠(yuǎn)東(或許還有中亞) ,而且在一個(gè)多極世界里,它最終可能會(huì)成為領(lǐng)先的主導(dǎo)中心,或者至少也是排在美國(guó)之后的第二位 (如果美國(guó)繼續(xù)成為一個(gè)大國(guó)的話) ,這種可能性是非常大的。
European oligarchs are too wiley to go down easy.
They'll fight to stay on top to the last American like every other 'ally'.
歐洲的寡頭們太狡猾了,不會(huì)輕易倒下。
他們會(huì)像其他 "盟友 "一樣,為了保持頂端(領(lǐng)先)地位而戰(zhàn)斗到最后一個(gè)美國(guó)人。
Top?? They haven’t been on top since when 1939
頂端(領(lǐng)先)地位??他們從1939年開始就沒有登頂過。
America and even elements of the MIC wanted out of Afghanistan for years, fearing the rise of real threats like Russia and China. Who whined the hardest and loudest against? NATO and the globalist warmongers.
Sure, NATO wants America to confront Russia and China - alone.
There is no Globalism, only Europe First imperialism. Globalism is just a nice inclusive world.
由于擔(dān)心俄羅斯和中國(guó)的崛起,美國(guó)甚至包括一些軍界、工業(yè)界集團(tuán)成員多年來一直希望撤出阿富汗,誰抱怨得最厲害?,誰的聲音最大 ? 北約和全球主義戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)販子。
顯然,北約希望美國(guó)單獨(dú)對(duì)抗俄羅斯和中國(guó)。
根本沒有什么所謂的“全球主義”,唯有“歐洲第一帝國(guó)主義”,全球主義就是想象中的美好“包容”世界。
We can view these as post-imperial global mean reversions, like stretched rubber bands snapping back into place.
"Not only is the center of political gravity shifting from Europe to Asia, European unity seems a thing of the past."
European unity was a thing of the very recent past and American occupation. What they do next is an interesting question. I think we should view Europe as an amalgamation of Western maritime components and Eastern inland components and stop referring to Europe as an organic unity.
Asia's political gravity is based on farm and factory economic output and thus trade relations. Silk Roads? Spice Roads? Where does Fine China come from? China! This should all sound very familiar. Now add Asian electronic gadgets and trinkets. Indonesia and India will find their niches and start to catch up. East Africa should thrive over the next 100 years. Imperial Africans were made poor, but they inhabit the great wealth of Africa.
Decolonization leaves post-imperial warring European and American conquistadors with very little to do. We must rapidly reconfigure, right size, defund and dismantle our vast but useless and parasitic "globalization" apparatus. Those frequent flying, hotel hopping liars will bleed us dry to buy properties and businesses in Asia, if we let them. We must focus like lasers on rebuilding North America's own farm and factory productive powers and associated assets. Globalization has failed. Imperialism failed. Frontiers are closed. We are not running the world's 3rd most populous nation like an offshore bank. That will only result in constant political chaos and civil wars.
我們可以把這些看作是后帝國(guó)時(shí)代的全球性逆轉(zhuǎn),就像拉伸后的橡皮筋迅速恢復(fù)到原來的位置。
“不僅僅是政治重心正從歐洲轉(zhuǎn)移到亞洲,歐洲的統(tǒng)一似乎也已成為過去?!?br /> 歐洲的統(tǒng)一是最近的事情,其本質(zhì)為美國(guó)的占領(lǐng)。
他們接下來做什么是一個(gè)有趣的問題,我認(rèn)為我們應(yīng)該把歐洲看作是西方海洋組成部分和東方內(nèi)陸組成部分的混合體,而不是把歐洲看作是一個(gè)有機(jī)的統(tǒng)一體。
曾經(jīng)亞洲的政治重心是建立在農(nóng)業(yè)和工廠經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出基礎(chǔ)上的,因此是貿(mào)易關(guān)系,絲綢之路?香料之路?精美的瓷器從何而來?中國(guó)!這一切聽起來是不是很熟悉。
現(xiàn)在又加上亞洲的電子產(chǎn)品和小飾品,印度尼西亞和印度將找到自己的利基市場(chǎng),并開始迎頭趕上,東非應(yīng)該會(huì)在未來100年內(nèi)蓬勃發(fā)展,帝國(guó)時(shí)代的非洲人被弄得很貧窮,但他們居住在非洲的富饒之地。
去殖民化使得帝國(guó)時(shí)代的歐洲和美國(guó)的征服者們可做的很少。我們必須迅速重新配置,調(diào)整規(guī)模,減少資金,拆除我們龐大但無用的寄生性“全球化”機(jī)構(gòu)。
如果我們?cè)试S他們這樣做,那些經(jīng)常飛來飛去、頻繁光顧酒店的騙子們會(huì)榨干我們的血汗,在亞洲購買房產(chǎn)和建立生意,我們必須像激光一樣,集中精力,專注于重建北美自己的農(nóng)場(chǎng)和工廠、生產(chǎn)力和相關(guān)設(shè)施。
全球化已經(jīng)失敗。
帝國(guó)主義已經(jīng)失敗。
邊疆已經(jīng)封閉。
我們不能像經(jīng)營(yíng)離岸銀行一樣經(jīng)營(yíng)這個(gè)世界上人口第三多的國(guó)家(注:即美國(guó)),那只會(huì)導(dǎo)致不斷的政治混亂和內(nèi)戰(zhàn)。
"For centuries up to and including the 20th, Europe seemed the central pivot of world history."
If we define centuries as the 20th, 19th, and possibly the 18th. If we look at the previous 200 - 1,000 centuries then to the extent there was a "central pivot" of world history, it was Asia. (Before that it was Africa.)
“在包括20世紀(jì)在內(nèi)的幾個(gè)世紀(jì)里,歐洲一直是世界歷史的中心,”
—— 如果我們定義一下這個(gè)范圍,可能是20世紀(jì),19世紀(jì),也可能還包括18世紀(jì),但如果我們回顧一下之前的200到1000年,世界歷史的“中心”,是亞洲。(在那之前是非洲)
Europe lunged ahead in the 17th century. You can see it starting from the settlements in America, Africa and Asia and the outcome of the battle of Lepantho.
歐洲在17世紀(jì)突飛猛進(jìn),你可以從美洲、非洲和亞洲的殖民定居點(diǎn)以及勒班陀戰(zhàn)役的結(jié)果中看到這一點(diǎn)。
Colonization lead directly to European primacy for a couple of centuries. Great Britain needed to build ships, cuts down its forests, people have to use coal to heat their homes instead of wood, a way has to be found to get water out of the coal mines, the steam engine is invented, the industrial revolution takes off...
幾個(gè)世紀(jì)以來,殖民直接導(dǎo)致了歐洲的首要地位,英國(guó)需要建造船只,于是砍伐森林,人們不得不用煤來取暖,而不是用木頭取暖,于是不得不找到一種方法把水從煤礦里抽出來,于是發(fā)明了蒸汽機(jī),工業(yè)革命開始了....
Yeah, looking back from our vantage point it's starting then but it hasn't (imho) really taken hold. Asia still dominates global trade and economic production in the 1600s.
是的,從于我們的有利位置回頭看,這是開始,但它還沒有 (依我之見) 真正占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位,在17世紀(jì),亞洲仍然主導(dǎo)著全球貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)。
You're both right. Europe was a backwater for centuries, but the dynamism started shortly after Lepanto. It just took that dynamism a while to obliterate the civilizational head start Asia and the Dar al Islam had before then.
你們都是對(duì)的,幾個(gè)世紀(jì)以來,歐洲一直是一潭死水,但在勒班陀戰(zhàn)役之后不久,這種活力就開始了,歐洲花了一段時(shí)間,抹去了亞洲和伊斯蘭在此之前所擁有的文明領(lǐng)先地位。
Even before Lepanto, there was the Battle of Diu.
In the early 19th Century, trade with China was causing a worldwide silver shortage, as there was huge demand for Chinese products, but westerns made few things that were competitive on the Chinese market, so trade had to be settled in silver (since China was on a silver standard at the time).
The British expanded the opium trade to China as a way to even up the balance of payments, then fought a series of wars to force the Chinese to accept the dope.
在勒班陀戰(zhàn)役之前,就有了迪烏戰(zhàn)役。
19世紀(jì)初期,由于對(duì)中國(guó)產(chǎn)品的巨大需求,與中國(guó)的貿(mào)易造成了全球范圍內(nèi)的白銀短缺,但西方國(guó)家制造的產(chǎn)品在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)上幾乎沒有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,因此貿(mào)易不得不以白銀結(jié)算 (因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)采用的是白銀本位制) 。
英國(guó)擴(kuò)大了對(duì)中國(guó)的鴉片貿(mào)易,以此來平衡國(guó)際收支,然后發(fā)動(dòng)了一系列戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)迫使中國(guó)接受毒品。
The EU was founded and designed to make sure that the Europeans could never fight each other again. In that it succeeded...heck, if Germany and France wanted to go to war today, the environmental impact statements alone would take three years to process.Problem is that the structures that make it hard to go to war also make it hard to do anything else in a timely manner.
歐盟的建立和設(shè)計(jì)就是為了確保歐洲人永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)再相互爭(zhēng)斗,而它成功了……見鬼,如果德國(guó)和法國(guó)今天要是想開戰(zhàn),光是環(huán)境影響報(bào)告就得花上三年時(shí)間來處理。
問題是,使戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)難以進(jìn)行的建構(gòu)也使其難以及時(shí)采取其他行動(dòng)。
The colonial peoples were all largely liberated and began the great migration to the mother countries.
Incorrect. Empires are not mother countries, but occupiers.
殖民地人民大部分獲得解放,開始向母國(guó)大規(guī)模移民。
不對(duì),帝國(guó)不是母國(guó),而是占領(lǐng)者。
It seems rather odd to describe World War 2 and the Cold War as focused on Europe; as if there were no war in the Pacific , no concern about China and no war in Southeast Asia.
As for the fragmentation of nation states within Europe, it’s rendered possible by the existence of the EU itself.
把第二次世界大戰(zhàn)和冷戰(zhàn)的焦點(diǎn)集中于歐洲似乎有些奇怪,整得好像太平洋上沒有戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng),中國(guó)沒有戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng),東南亞也沒有戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)一樣。
至于歐洲內(nèi)部民族國(guó)家的分裂,正是歐盟自身的存在使其成為可能。
Don't discount Europe (not the EU which is a dead man walking already) that easily - What the Americans always feared was the rise of Eurasia - that's the real reason why the US built bases surrounding Russia - and to intervene at every opportunity with colour revolutions etc and constant demonisation of Russia in the media . It wants to keep Western and central Europe in an antagonistic relationship with Russia for as long as possible because it is obvious that if one had to combine European know how and quality and Russian know-how plus the unparalleled Russian natural resources (just look at the energy situation in Europe right now with the gas prices) - Eurasia would automatically become the eminent economic and military power. Geographically it would also be in the best position one could hope for - just look at the map of the world. Will this ever come to pass? not if the US can help it - and not as long as the US bribes enough European politicians.. but things change and are changing - increasingly many perceive US influence to be diminishing and if this continues I do not discount a rapprochement leading possibly to a common Eurasian security architecture and a common market leading to a loose unx (not a political one like the EU) were Russia is treated as an equal partner. I also believe that the continental Europeans would look favourably (I mean the common people) - most of us don't believe the propaganda that Russia is out there to invade us - if anything historically it's been mostly the other way round. Furthermore, culturally most of us feel closer to them than to the US / Anglo-saxon world. The only problem is that (to the delight of the US and at the cost of Europe) Russia is giving up on the West ever treating it as a genuine partner and is instead, out of necessity is forging an ever deeper collaboration with China... but it is usually a fool's errand to predict the future, no one knows how things will pan out - yes you can predict some things, but reality is full of surprises and unintended consequences.
不要輕視歐洲 ( 歐洲不是歐盟,歐盟已經(jīng)行將就木) ——美國(guó)人一直擔(dān)心的是歐亞大陸的崛起——這是美國(guó)在俄羅斯周圍建立基地的真正原因——并利用顏色革命等每一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)進(jìn)行干預(yù),利用媒體不斷妖魔化俄羅斯。
美國(guó)希望西歐和中歐與俄羅斯盡可能長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的保持?jǐn)硨?duì)關(guān)系,因?yàn)楹苊黠@,如果把歐洲的技術(shù)和質(zhì)量與俄羅斯的技術(shù)加上無與倫比的俄羅斯自然資源(看看歐洲現(xiàn)在的能源狀況和天然氣價(jià)格就知道了)結(jié)合起來,歐亞大陸將自動(dòng)成為杰出的經(jīng)濟(jì)和軍事力量。
從地理上來說,它也處于人們所能期望的最佳位置——看看世界地圖就知道了。
這會(huì)成為現(xiàn)實(shí)嗎?
如果美國(guó)能夠“提供幫助”,就不會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種情況——只要美國(guó)賄賂足夠多的歐洲政客,就不會(huì)。
但事情正在發(fā)生變化——越來越多的人認(rèn)為,美國(guó)的影響力正在減弱,如果這種情況繼續(xù)下去,依我的看法,不排除和解可能帶來一個(gè)共同的歐亞安全架構(gòu)和共同市場(chǎng),一個(gè)松散的聯(lián)盟(不是像歐盟那樣的政治聯(lián)盟),俄羅斯被視為一個(gè)平等的合作伙伴。
我還認(rèn)為,歐洲大陸的人(我指的是普通人)會(huì)對(duì)此持積極態(tài)度——我們大多數(shù)人都不相信俄羅斯會(huì)入侵我們的宣傳——如果說歷史上有什么不同的話,那就是大多數(shù)情況都是相反的。
此外,在文化上,我們大多數(shù)人感覺與他們(俄羅斯)的關(guān)系比與美國(guó)/盎格魯撒克遜世界的關(guān)系更為密切。
唯一的問題是俄羅斯正在放棄把西方當(dāng)作一個(gè)真正的合作伙伴 (讓美國(guó)高興,也讓歐洲付出了代價(jià)) ,而是出于其需要,正在與中國(guó)建立更加深入的合作關(guān)系......
但是預(yù)測(cè)未來通常都是件愚蠢的事,沒有人能知道事情將如何發(fā)展——是,你可以預(yù)測(cè)一些事情,但現(xiàn)實(shí)往往充滿驚喜和意外結(jié)果。