低油價(jià)對特斯拉不利嗎?

原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯：遼闊天空 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處

Ron Rule, CEO @ As Seen On TV
No, low oil prices are actually GOOD for Tesla and for EV''s in general.
The reason most people aren''t buying EV''s has nothing to do with gas prices, it has to do with range.
Thus, for most people, an EV is their second or third vehicle in their collection. It may very well be the one they drive to the office every day, but it''s rarely their only car, because few people are willing to have their only vehicle limited by a maximum daily range.
Lower fuel costs frees up capital that can be allocated to a second vehicle. At one point, when I lived quite a bit further from the office than I do now, I was spending about $600 per month on fuel between my getting to work every day and my wife running around doing things with the kids. If that ongoing fuel cost were reduced, we could have easily made our second vehicle an EV, but with costs what they were - both fuel and the EV costs - it wouldn''t have made sense.

不，低油價(jià)實(shí)際上對特斯拉和電動(dòng)汽車都有好處。
大多數(shù)人不買電動(dòng)汽車的原因與汽油價(jià)格無關(guān)，而與行駛里程有關(guān)。
因此，對大多數(shù)人來說，電動(dòng)汽車是他們收藏的第二輛或第三輛車。很可能是他們每天開車去上班的地方，但很少是他們唯一的車，因?yàn)楹苌儆腥嗽敢獍阉麄兾ㄒ坏能囕v限制在每天的最大行駛里程范圍內(nèi)。
較低的燃料成本釋放了可分配給第二輛車的資金。有一次，當(dāng)我住得比離現(xiàn)在的辦公室遠(yuǎn)一點(diǎn)的時(shí)候，從每天上班到妻子帶著孩子四處奔波，我每個(gè)月都要花600美元買燃料。如果持續(xù)的燃料成本降低，我們可以在輕松地購買第二輛車時(shí)選擇電動(dòng)汽車，但如果成本與實(shí)際成本（燃料成本和電動(dòng)汽車成本）持平，那就沒有意義了。

I actually did the math. At 2007 fuel and EV prices, I would have to have driven that EV 327,000 miles to break even on fuel savings.
I still wanted an EV though, just because I''m an auto buff and technology geek, and it''s the perfect manifestation of both. And since I''m also on a perpetual quest to be Batman in real life, in 2011 I decided to build my own. Four years later, here is the end result:
Believe it or not, what you''re looking at was once a 1968 Volkswagen Beetle. Today, it''s powered by a series wound DC motor and 38 lithium phosphate batteries, has a range of around 90 miles, and does 0-60 in about 3 seconds. No doors, hydraulic top that opens and closes with a keyless entry button, and painted Satin Black.
Total cost was about $20,000 - more than I would ever have spent on fuel in a Beetle, that''s for sure.
Fuel costs aren''t why people go electric. Performance, Eco-friendliness, and being a part of an emerging technology is. For Tesla, they''re targeting an audience who would otherwise buy a Jaguar XJ or BMW 7 series. This isn''t a group that cares about the cost to fill the tank.
But for everyone else, low fuel prices get them closer to being able to afford to go electric.

我真的計(jì)算過了。以2007年的燃油和電動(dòng)汽車價(jià)格計(jì)算，我必須開32.7萬英里的電動(dòng)汽車才能在節(jié)約的燃油方面與實(shí)現(xiàn)收支平衡。
但我仍然想要一輛電動(dòng)汽車，僅僅因?yàn)槲易陨硎且粋€(gè)汽車愛好和技術(shù)宅的完美追求者。其實(shí)我2011年在追求成為現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中的蝙蝠俠，于是我決定建立自己造一個(gè)蝙蝠俠。四年后出來的結(jié)果是：信不信由你，如今你看到的是一輛1968年產(chǎn)的大眾甲殼蟲。它由一個(gè)串聯(lián)直流電動(dòng)機(jī)和38節(jié)磷酸鋰電池供電，續(xù)航里程約為90英里，在3秒鐘內(nèi)完成0-60英里。沒有門，液壓方式從頂部打開和關(guān)閉與無鑰匙進(jìn)入按鈕，車身并被涂上緞黑色油漆?？偝杀炯s為20000美元——這是肯定的，比我在甲殼蟲上花在燃料上的錢還多。
燃料成本不是人們用電的原因。性能、環(huán)保以及成為使用新興技術(shù)等等這些才是用電的原因。對于特斯拉來說，他們瞄準(zhǔn)的是那些原本會(huì)購買捷豹XJ或?qū)汃R7系的消費(fèi)者。這不是一個(gè)關(guān)心燃油成本的群體。
但對其他有些人人來說，低油價(jià)使他們在燃油上的消耗就更接近能夠負(fù)擔(dān)得起的電力消耗了。



K?re Lohse, with a wrong-side-of-the-road Tesla Model S
When you buy a car, whether electric or fossil fuel driven, it will likely last you (or subsequent owners) 10 years or more. Especially the Tesla Model S (and X) as it''s made mainly of aluminum, and has few parts to maintain. I reckon most Tesla Model S and X will last well over 20 years. But even if you buy a brand new dino juice cruiser, you have committed to THAT fuel for so many years. Of course you can sell it on, but if fuel price goes up, second hand prices of ICE cars will drop.
What will gas (or diesel or LPG) cost in 2035?
Looking at what the pump price is yesterday, today or tomorrow, is just a temporary indication of a very variable - and significant - part of the total cost of ownership - if you own a fossil fuel driven car.

當(dāng)你買了一輛汽車，無論是電動(dòng)的還是燃油驅(qū)動(dòng)的，它可能會(huì)讓你(或者轉(zhuǎn)讓后的車主)使用10年或更長時(shí)間。特別是特斯拉S型(和X型)，因?yàn)樗饕怯射X制成的，幾乎沒有零部件需要維護(hù)。我估計(jì)大多數(shù)特斯拉Model S和Model X的壽命會(huì)超過20年。但是，即使你買了一輛全新的巡洋艦，你也已經(jīng)使用這種燃料很多年了。當(dāng)然你可以繼續(xù)賣給別人，但是如果油價(jià)上漲，二手冰車的價(jià)格就會(huì)下降。
2035年天然氣(或柴油或液化石油氣)的價(jià)格將會(huì)是多少?
看看昨天、今天或明天的汽油價(jià)格是多少，這是一個(gè)暫時(shí)價(jià)格。如果你擁有一輛以石油燃料為動(dòng)力的汽車，你的總擁有成本中有很大一部分是可變的，而且非常重要。

Simon Crump, Model S 100D, referral code http://ts.la/simon52315
Not really.
Firstly, as others have observed, Tesla is in the luxury car market and so the fuel cost saving is less significant than for other EV manufacturers. If you buy a $100k car, saving an extra $5 each time you recharge instead of filling up is neither here nor there. The car has other unique selling points.
But there''s something equally important, which is that the US is not the only market for EVs and elsewhere the falling price of oil on the commodity markets affects the consumer price of fuel somewhat less. Gasoline/petrol is heavily taxed in Europe and there are twice as many people there than in the US.
In the UK petrol currently costs ￡1 per litre and 78p of that is tax. That is equivalent to around $6 per US gallon, and at the top of the market British drivers were paying more than $8 per US gallon. Either way, buying petrol is many times more expensive than recharging an EV. Even with the current low oil prices, my cost per mile in a petrol car in the UK is about $0.25 versus less than $0.05 per mile for an EV (and that''s if I pay for all my own electricity).
So even if Americans can''t make a strong case for buying Teslas in the current market, the Europeans can. The best selling car in Norway is the Tesla Model S:

不是真的。
首先，正如其他人所觀察到的，特斯拉是在豪華車市場，因此節(jié)省燃料成本的重要性低于其他電動(dòng)汽車制造商。如果你買了一輛10萬美元的車，每次充值時(shí)多存5美元而不是充值，這是不存在的。這輛車還有其他獨(dú)特的賣點(diǎn)。
但同樣重要的是，美國并不是電動(dòng)汽車的唯一市場，而其他國家大宗商品市場油價(jià)下跌對燃料消費(fèi)價(jià)格的影響稍小。在歐洲，汽油稅很高，那里的人口是美國的兩倍。在英國，汽油目前每升售價(jià)1英鎊，其中78便士是稅。這相當(dāng)于每加侖6美元左右，在市場的頂端，英國司機(jī)每加侖要支付8美元以上。不管怎樣，買汽油比給電動(dòng)車充電貴很多倍。即使在目前油價(jià)較低的情況下，我在英國開一輛汽油車的每英里成本約為0.25美元，而電動(dòng)汽車的每英里成本不到0.05美元（如果我自己支付所有的電費(fèi)的話）。
因此，即使美國人不能在目前的市場上為購買特斯拉提供有力的理由，歐洲人也可以。挪威最暢銷的汽車是特斯拉S型。



Ian McCullough, IRL: Technology & Education / Quora: Politics + Other Stuff
No one is buying a Tesla as an economic consideration to save money on gasoline. Some people might buy a Tesla since they''re zero-emissions. Like all luxury cars, part of the reason that people buy them is to make a statement.

沒有人買特斯拉是為了省錢買汽油。有些人可能會(huì)買特斯拉，因?yàn)樗鼈兪橇闩欧诺?。和所有豪華車一樣，人們購買豪華車的部分原因是為了傳遞某種理念。