【下】如果1941年希特勒沒有入侵蘇聯(lián)，而是繼續(xù)執(zhí)行《海獅行動》并入侵英國，將會是什么結(jié)局？英國能否挺住？美國會協(xié)同守護英國嗎？

Bob Reisner
If the German decision was made in 1941 to invade Britain and the expectation was an invasion in 1941 and that the invasion would be successful and complete in 1941, then it would have gone badly for Germany. For all the reasons others have stated.
When we look at German war history from the mid 1930''s through the beginning of the Russian invasion, the German expectation was for a quick war...over in the same year as it started.
Contrast this with the actions of the USA post Pearl Harbor. The expectation was for a long war that would require a full mobilization of the people and the economy. A resolution as soon as 1945 was only the dream of a few.
I''d suggest that even if staged at a different time, ''Sea Lion'' was not the best approach. A direct assault across the shortest channel crossing point would have given Britain advantages in logistical support for their defense. A very 10th-century solution. German success would not be assured. Without the distraction of a Russian front or a war with the USA, Germany would have a greater chance of success. But it would be a WW1 style frontal slugfest. And because Sea Lion would start with a smallish beachhead, there would be little room for mechanized maneuver. A war of attrition over a long period of time is expensive and allows for some uncertainty in outcome. The cost of Sea Lion, even at a later time, might have been too expensive.
I do think the Germans had other alternatives than Sea Lion to successfully conquer Britain. And alternatives with a greater probability of success. One example follows:
Suppose that from 1940 on, the Germans planned and executed a ''long war'' to conquer Britain. Some of the elements of the German long war would be:
Use of submarines, surface ships, long and medium range bombers to sink all in and outbound shipping. Whether in port or on the high seas perhaps a 200 mile limit from British borders, the program would be to sink everything to and from Britain.
Use air forces to degrade radar and air defense including fighters.
Use air forces to degrade rail transport, power generation, water distribution and sewage treatment.
Use air forces to defoliate and otherwise destroy crops and livestock.
Use air forces to destroy mining, factories and distribution structures.
Some of the more surprising elements of this effort would include:
No direct attacks on the general population. Only as ''unfortunate'' collateral damage.
Avoidance of actions that ''force'' USA entry into the war.
A strong, public and forceful offer to the United States to assist them in their war against the Japanese. Perhaps a half million troops to the Philippines in 1942. To understand how powerful this might have been you need only to look up USA German Bund activity in the late 1930''s.
For Russia, the Germans could offer Iran after the conquest of Britain. In return for honoring an existing agreement, Russia would get the dream of all the Czars...a warm water port. I believe this offer would have been welcomed (just like the deal to split Poland a couple of years earlier.
A strong propaganda program to the British people. Elements would include such promises as a Vichy-type occupation, Scottish ''independence'', general military amnesty, etc. The appearance of the war being against a British government and only reluctantly against the British people.
Bottom line...Germany could manufacture bombers and munitions way faster than the rest of the world (x/USA) could manufacture ships. With a strong program beginning in 1941, I''d expect a seriously weakened Britain by the beginning of 1943.
Based on the WW2 German and Japanese homeland experience, we could expect that after 2 years of relentless bombing that the civil and military society of Britain would be severely degraded. Two years with declining to very limited food stocks, limited power and heat, and disrupted/reduced military capability.
At this point, the German propaganda machine should continuously let the British people know that ''unfortunately'' the invasion of Great Britain must begin and that it regrets the increase in civilian casualties. Announce the start and continue to request a ''peaceful'' solution.
By 1943, in the circumstances I''ve described, British air defense would be non existent and Germany would ''own'' the British skies.
First, Germany needs to make Ireland an offer they can''t refuse. Ireland lets Germany stage an assault on Northern Ireland from Irish soil. In return, Ireland gets Northern Ireland at war''s end. Again, assuming German control of air space and close in British waters, Northern Ireland becomes a killing field for the Germans to easily extinguish British troops. The British lose troops in Northern Ireland, on the water to Northern Ireland and in the staging areas in Britain. The German goal is to chew up ''irreplaceable'' British human and material resources. Britain will exact a price and will have some tactical success but the outcome is certain...eventual loss of Northern Ireland, soldiers, and munitions. It might take a year...all of 1943.
With the loss of Ireland, Scotland is exposed. By 1944, Britain is in its 3rd year of siege and even weaker. And Scotland is invaded. German air based in Ireland is closer to the front than any residual British air. More importantly, Ireland based German air assets are just a few air miles from the English/Scottish border which is a natural choke point for air interdiction of English reinforcements/material being sent north. And if the Germans treated the Irish well, the Scottish might also be interested in ''self government'' (Vichy style). And with Germany just across the Channel and Irish Sea, Britain could NOT send all of it''s resources north to fight the Scottish invasion.
With Scotland falling in 1944, the exhausted British would have no choice but to surrender in 1945.
For Germany, the slow deliberate and ''friendly'' approach would be very efficient in terms of German lives and money. In the face of a long war and without USA or Russian intervention, I just don''t see how Britain could have survived.
Fortunately for us, the very capable German/Prussian General Staff was led by an emotional, inexperienced and untrained ex-corporal. Just imagine the outcome if the German leader had the capability of Otto von Bismarck!

如果德國決定1941年入侵英國并取得勝利，那對于德國而言，最終結(jié)果將是非常糟糕的。原因如下：
如果我們回顧德國的戰(zhàn)爭史——從1930年代中期到沙俄入侵，德國所期待的，都是一種速戰(zhàn)速決的戰(zhàn)爭模式，它希望在發(fā)動戰(zhàn)爭的同一年內(nèi)就結(jié)束戰(zhàn)爭。
這和美國在珍珠港事件后的戰(zhàn)爭行動形成了鮮明的對比。美國期待的是一場需要充分動員人民和經(jīng)濟的長期戰(zhàn)爭，而在1945年速戰(zhàn)速決只是少數(shù)人的夢想罷了。
在我看來，無論“海獅行動”在任何階段執(zhí)行，都不是最好的解決方案。如果納粹德國通過海峽在最短距離攻擊英國，這只會讓英國可以向防御部隊提供后勤支持，從而建立英國的優(yōu)勢。這簡直和10世紀的落后作戰(zhàn)方法無異。德國根本就無法保證戰(zhàn)爭的勝利。如果沒有和蘇聯(lián)戰(zhàn)線和美國分散自己的注意力，德國有很大的成功機會，但是，戰(zhàn)爭方式會變成一戰(zhàn)時的前線正面交鋒而已。由于“海獅行動”將會從狹窄的海灘地區(qū)展開，供機械化機動的空間非常小。長時間的消耗會增加戰(zhàn)爭的代價并造成結(jié)果的不穩(wěn)定。即便是在后期發(fā)動“海獅行動”，代價仍然過高。
除了海獅行動”之外，我認為德國人沒有制定其他入侵英國的方案了。其他成功率更高的可選方案包括：
假設，納粹德國計劃從1940年開始發(fā)動“持久戰(zhàn)”來占領英國，那么納粹德國發(fā)動戰(zhàn)爭的必要因素包括：
通過潛艇、水面艦艇，以及遠程和中程轟炸機來摧毀港內(nèi)和出港的船只。若要執(zhí)行該計劃，德國必須擊沉所有進出英國的船只，無論是在港口內(nèi)的船只，還是距離英國領土200公里遠公海上的船只。
通過空中力量來削弱英國雷達和防空系統(tǒng)的能力，包括英國皇家空軍的戰(zhàn)斗機。
通過空中力量來削弱英國鐵路運輸、發(fā)電、水資源配送和污水處理的能力。
通過空中力量來消滅樹木，或者打擊英國的農(nóng)作物和牲畜。
通過空中力量來摧毀英國的采礦業(yè)、工廠和銷售渠道。
想要實現(xiàn)這種效果需采取的更加出奇的辦法包括：
不要對普通民眾進行直接攻擊，而是制造一種“不幸的”的附帶傷害。
避免采取會導致美國參戰(zhàn)的行動。
向美國提供公開而且有力的援助，借此來對抗日本。也許，德國可以在1942年向菲律賓派遣50萬名士兵。你只要了解美德在20世紀30年代末所共同采取行動的效果，就會明白美德合作的力量之大了。
對于蘇聯(lián)，德國可以在占領英國后，將伊朗獻給蘇聯(lián)，根據(jù)協(xié)議，蘇聯(lián)將會實現(xiàn)所有沙皇的夢想，那就是一個不凍港。我認為，蘇聯(lián)一定會十分樂見德國這么做的（就像早些年蘇德練過瓜分波蘭那樣。）
向英國人民發(fā)動強大的政治輿論攻勢。手段包括維希式占領、蘇格蘭“獨立”和軍事大赦等。德國要向英國人民表示，它發(fā)動戰(zhàn)爭只是為了對抗英國政府而已，而非英國人民。
結(jié)果，德國制造炸彈和軍需品的速度能夠超過世界其他國家（美國）制造軍艦的速度。如果納粹德國在1941年開始執(zhí)行有力的進攻計劃，那么到1943年初，英國的實力將會被嚴重削弱。
通過分析二戰(zhàn)中對德國和日本本土的轟炸結(jié)果，我們可以預測，如果對英國連續(xù)兩年進行狂轟濫炸，英國的民間和軍隊士氣都會被嚴重削弱。在受到了德國兩年的轟炸之后，英國的糧食儲備、電力和發(fā)熱能力將會下降到非常有限的水平，而且軍事力量也會被削弱。
這時候，納粹德國的政治宣傳機器必須持續(xù)地向英國人民發(fā)聲，讓他們明白，入侵英國是不可避免的，而且納粹德國對于平民傷亡的增加感到后悔。然后，納粹德國開始入侵，并繼續(xù)表示自己想要尋求一條“和平”的解決方案。
按照我描述的情況，到1943年，英國防空力量將會被消滅，而且納粹德國將會“占領”英國的空域。
首先，德國需要提出愛爾蘭無法拒絕的條件。然后，愛爾蘭同意德國從愛爾蘭的領土向北愛爾蘭發(fā)動進攻，作為回報，在戰(zhàn)爭結(jié)束后，愛爾蘭可以兼并北愛爾蘭的土地。然后，假設德國控制了領空，并靠近了英國的水域時，北愛爾蘭就成為德國屠殺英國軍隊的戰(zhàn)場。英國將會在北愛爾蘭地面和水面戰(zhàn)場上，以及英國的本土上損失自己的隊伍。而德國的進攻目標就是摧毀英國那“不可替代”的人力資源和物資。英國可能會讓德國蒙受一些損失，并取得一些戰(zhàn)術(shù)勝利，但是戰(zhàn)爭結(jié)果是肯定的：英國最終會失去北愛爾蘭、大量士兵和彈藥。實現(xiàn)這些目標可能需要一年的時間，也就是整個1943年。
當愛爾蘭被德國拿下后，蘇格蘭也隨之暴露。截至1944年，已經(jīng)被德軍包圍3年的英國實力也隨之變?nèi)?，而且蘇格蘭也被德軍入侵。這時，駐扎在愛爾蘭的德國空軍要比英國皇家空軍更靠近戰(zhàn)場前線。更重要的是，駐扎在愛爾蘭的德國空軍距離英國/蘇格蘭邊境非常近，而該邊境是封鎖來自北方援助/物資的一個關(guān)鍵點。如果德國人善待愛爾蘭人，那么蘇格蘭也會有意建立一個“自治政府”（維希式政府）。當?shù)聡婈牽梢源┰接⒓{和愛爾蘭海時，英國再也無法向北部派兵來阻止德國對蘇格蘭的入侵了。
隨著蘇格蘭在1944年的陷落，被耗盡的英國別無選擇，只能在1945年向德國投降。
通過這種深思熟慮而且“友好”的方法來入侵英國，對降低德國人員和資金損失是極為有效的。如果沒有美國或者蘇聯(lián)的干預，德國對英國發(fā)動持久戰(zhàn)，英國很難會幸存下來。
幸運的是，統(tǒng)領這些精干的德國/普魯士總參謀部的人，不過是一個情緒化、毫無經(jīng)驗而且未經(jīng)訓練的下士罷了。想象一下，如果納粹德國的領導人有俾斯麥的能力，那么戰(zhàn)爭結(jié)果會變成什么樣子吧！